Habs GM

The Alex Effect

2010-07-30T22:57:00.000-07:00

Pierre Gauthier signed Alexandre Picard and Alex Henry this week, further bolstering the depth on an already strong blueline. In fact, defense is where the Habs are strongest.

In so doing, Gauthier no doubt learned from the drubbing that Philly handed them in the playoffs. The Flyers were hardly a fashionable pick to win the East, esp when they were down to their third-string goalie, and with a couple of injured top-6 forwards.

But an incredibly strong blueline corps carried them through, and were inexplicably able to take two games from the Blackhawks (who had superior goaltending and more talented forwards).

The Habs already had a deep set of NHL-ready defensemen, but chose to let go of Bergeron and Mara. It was doubtful that either would settle for the two-way deals that Picard and Henry signed, enabling the Habs to leave them in Hamilton until they might be needed. Yannick Weber and/or Mathieu Carle would be the only Bulldogs the Habs had that might be able to make the jump. But Picard especially leapfrogs those two, and enables the Habs to allow the younger set to more fully develop at the AHL level.

Bergeron especially should find a home on an NHL team. His kind of PP prowess would be valuable to some teams, even if he has to play as a 6th or even a 4th line forward. With the revelation that was PK Subban, the Habs simply didn't need him anymore.

As far as when Picard (or Henry, should the Habs need more of an enforcer-type) might be called up, mark February 1 on your calendar. That's when Hamrlik's limited no-trade clause expires. The Habs will then be free to trade him to any team, not just the six he specified before then.

Hamrlik carries a significant cap hit, but his salary will be mostly paid by that time. His contract also expires at the end of the year, so he might make an attractive piece for a team making a playoff push but needing a #3 or #4 dman who can play on the 2nd PP unit and provide stable defensive help. They get the help without the lingering cap hit, and could be free to negotiate a more suitable contract for a defenseman of his age and skill set (somewhere below Spacek's $3.833M/yr).

And with the cap space gained by the Hamrlik trade, Gauthier could get a top 6 forward from another team looking to gain some value from a UFA they know they won't/can't resign. That is, assuming the Habs are still contenders at that point. If not, Hamrlik will probably just be traded for draft picks and/or prospects.

But if the Habs are contending, who might be that soon-to-be UFA top 6 forward? It could be Simon Gagne, if the Yzerman-makeover in Tampa Bay doesn't pay playoff dividends in it's first year. Granted he has a full no-trade clause, but he might just waive it for another chance at the Cup. The numbers work at least: he makes $250k less than Hamrlik.

Still all of this only works if O'Byrne is ready. O'Byrne will start the season as the 7th, but could conceivably take Hamrlik's slot by early next year. Gauthier could then and call up Picard (or Henry) as their 7th.

But if O'Byrne isn't ready, and the Habs are still playoff contenders, expect Hamrlik to stay put.

Getting Creative

2010-07-26T10:30:00.000-07:00

What exactly was Peter Chiarelli thinking when he traded for Nathan Horton? The guy has tons of potential, but isn't worth the $4M cap hit he carries. Now of course, he's not exactly the waste of cap space that Michael Ryder turned out to be (also $4M). But for a team desperate to clear space, this wasn't a wise move.

So now Blake Wheeler, one of their up and coming stars, needs to be signed. An RFA, he was eligible for arbitration, and took it. Unfortunately, the Bruins only have $12, 229 in cap space after the Horton deal, according to capgeek.com. And with that $12, 229 Chiarelli needs to sign another three forwards. Given that the NHL minimum salary is $500,000, I'd say Chiarelli has a bit of a math problem.

But Chiarelli's problem could be Gauthier's opportunity. Despite some missteps (the Gomez trade in particular), the Habs are in decent cap shape. Could Gauthier swing a sign-and-trade deal for Wheeler?

It all depends on two things: how much the arbitrator gives to Wheeler and how much Price ultimately signs for. The latter could have been settled by now had Gauthier been a bit wiser in playing his cards. We've gone over this in the last few posts, so no need to revisit that subject again.

But what would Wheeler get? Mason Raymond recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a deal carrying a cap hit of $2.55M. Raymond is a bit smaller than Wheeler, a year older, one year's more NHL experience, and better stats: 25G/28A to Wheeler's 18G/20A in the same number of games. So based on Raymond's contract alone, Wheeler might get a deal worth $1.5M to $2M.

But the Habs only have $4.7M in cap space, and still need to sign Price and two forwards to fill out their roster. The only way this works is if Price signs for a reasonable $2.2M (his old cap hit), leaving $2.5M for Wheeler and another forward. That other forward would have to be someone like the diminutive but talented David Desharnais ($550K), leaving $1.95M for Wheeler.

And who would the Bruins take in return? Obviously they need some lower paid talent, so draft picks and/or raiding the Bulldogs' roster would be the only recourse. One could see Max Pacioretty ($910K) or Ben Maxwell ($850K), but Chiarelli would be wiser to aim for someone with potential but earning near the minimum. That might mean JT Wyman or Ryan Russell, each on one year deals for $550K.

But this all begs the question: why Wheeler? Everyone knows the Habs' main weakness is their lack of size up front. Wheeler addresses that with his 6-5, 205 lb frame. He's also right handed, and thus could take Kostitsyn's spot on the line with Cammalleri and Plekanec. That would push Kostitsyn into competition with Pouliot for the left wing spot on the second line -- a good thing since both players tend to disappear for stretches at a time, and both will be playing for a new contract.

The loser of that battle could then be pushed down to the third line, with Ellers in the middle and Lapierre on the right. That would give the Habs' much better scoring depth.

What's Price worth?

2010-07-17T10:41:00.000-07:00

The Habs have a few remaining pieces to round out their roster for next year, the biggest of which is RFA Carey Price. As reported here earlier, Gauthier probably made a huge blunder by trading Halak and not signing a decent goalie to replace him (Alex Auld certainly doesn't qualify). Gauthier had the right idea by trading Sergei Kostitsyn for essentially the negotiating rights to Dan Ellis (and Dustin Boyd), as Ellis was one of the better goalies available. Maybe not as good as Turco or Nabokov, but certainly on a second tier.

But he still managed to fumble away that opportunity, letting Ellis sign elsewhere for a mere $500k more than what he eventually signed Alex Auld for. Now Price's agent is in the driver's seat, knowing that his client is the undisputed #1 goaltender going forward.

But this mistake aside, what should Price be paid? His cap figure from his original contract stood at $2.2M. But that certainly was inflated by his potential, not by what he had actually accomplished.

And the Habs can't afford much more than that anyway. According to capgeek.com Gauthier has about $4.7M left to sign Price as well as add a couple of forwards. The site makes a few assumptions about who will actually make the roster, including Boyd and Lars Ellers. These are reasonable assumptions, so one only needs to figure out who the two remaining forwards would be to arrive at the remaining cap space for Price.

Those forwards could be any of the following:

Max Pacioretty ($910k cap hit), another first rounder who could push Benoit Pouliot, Tom Pyatt and Mathieu Darche for playing time.
Ryan White ($850k), a gritty forward who would be the only right handed centerman on the team.
Alexander Avtsin ($607k), a big right winger who will only make around $67k playing for the Bulldogs. He could have made much more staying in the KHL, so he must think his chances of sticking with the big club are fairly good.
Ben Maxwell ($850k), who managed to grab a postseason roster spot with the Habs even though he could have been gaining valuable experience with the Bulldogs' own deep playoff run.

The safe bet for the remaining two spots would be on Maxwell and White. That would leave about $3M left for Price. One would hope that Gauthier would leave some cap room for future transactions, and sign Price for a more reasonable $2M cap hit. But Price's agent has almost certainly done the same math, and knows he can get more. And hence the prolonged standoff.

2010-11 Habs

2010-07-03T23:04:00.000-07:00

The Habs made quite a bit of headway in securing next year's lineup, by signing all of their RFA's except Price and Lapierre, and their lone must-sign UFA, Tomas Plekanec. Given these signings plus the Halak trade, the lineup for 2010-11 is taking shape.

The goaltending and defense situations are the most obvious. Price has been handed the reins again as starting goaltender (a big mistake on Gauthier's part, at least from a negotiation standpoint). Alex Auld will be his backup. Price has a lot of potential, and we'll see if he can live up to it, especially with the rule changes governing pad sizes.

On the blueline, both Mara and Bergeron will no doubt not be re-signed. Instead, Gauthier will go with Markov, Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges and Gill. O'Byrne will serve as the seventh. This gives Martin a better mix of left and right handed defensemen than last year. It also has a nice mix of youth and veteran experience, as well as stay at home types vs the offensive minded. This is clearly the strength of the Habs lineup.

Up front, the only changes are the UFA's that couldn't be re-signed due to cap issues: Moore and Metropolit. Moore was brought in to improve the Habs' percentages on faceoffs. He did a decent job in the regular season, but fell off precipitously in the playoffs. Lars Ellers will probably take his place, given his projection as a future second line center man.

Metropolit was a gritty fourth liner, and had a much needed right handed shot (used to good effect on the PP). But he doesn't fit with the Habs' desire for speed. Gauthier acquired and signed Dustin Boyd as a potential fourth line center man, but it says here that Boyd is just insurance in case Ryan White doesn't work out. White showed real promise last year, and would be the only right handed center in the lineup.

So that would probably leave the forward lines looking something like the following:

Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta

Moen - Ellers - Lapierre

Pyatt - White - Darche

Kostitsyn is a RFA next year. This is his last chance to prove that he wasn't yet another first round bust for the Habs. There are a few others that could make the lineup and push players like Pouliot, White and Darche for playing time. Pacioretty and Boyd would be the most likely candidates to round out the lineup, but JT Wyman's size and right handed shot would fit nicely. Ben Maxwell is another candidate and got a long look last year, but rarely made an impact.

Overpaid, Pt II

2010-07-02T07:18:00.000-07:00

In the last installment we examined the contract given to Tomas Plekanec. It looks like he was overpaid, especially for someone who hadn't hit the UFA market yet and wanted to stay a Hab.

Maybe the biggest impact of the Plekanec contract was on the backup goalie position. Earlier we presumed Gauthier wouldnt simply hand the keys over to Price, given Price's inconsistent play. So Gauthier traded malcontent Sergei Kostitsyn for essentially the negotiating rights to Dustin Boyd and, more importantly, Dan Ellis. Gauthier managed to sign Boyd, but Ellis went elsewhere -- for only $500k more than what the Habs ended up giving Alex Auld.

When one looks at the probable lineup for next year, its not hard to see that the Habs only had about $1M to offer a backup goaltender. But here's where the Plekanec contract comes back into play: if the Habs had $500k more in cap room, Ellis or (better yet) Johan Hedberg could have been in play. Both signed for $1.5M per and both are goalies with a much better track record than Auld. Even when Gauthier traded for the negotiating rights to Ellis, he still couldn't close the deal. Gauthier was probably trying to pitch the $1M cap hit contract, and Ellis knew he was worth more.

It doesnt stop there: now that Price's agent knows that Price is the man, his bargaining position suddenly got much better. And the Alex Auld signing only reinforced that position. If Ellis or Hedberg were signed instead, the message to Price and his agent would be: we still have options.

The Plekanec contract may have also affected how Gauthier could improve his corps of forwards. He wanted to leave it mostly intact, but obviously could not afford to re-sign Moore and Metropolit (at least not at their current salaries).

Still, the Habs desperately need size and some grit, something that was only provided consistently by Moen and Lapierre during the playoffs. And that size and grit was available, for a decent price: Adam Burish was signed by the Stars for only $1.15M in cap hit money. His Stanley Cup experience and right handed shot would have been an added bonus too. But instead the Habs signed Dustin Boyd, for $500K less.

So if Plekanec signs for a much more reasonable $4M per, the Habs would have had a chance at Burish, Ellis and Hedberg. Much better than Boyd and Auld.

Overpaid

2010-06-27T16:49:00.001-07:00

There was much to like about the contract signed by Tomas Plekanec, not the least of which is that it came before both the draft and the July 1 free agent frenzy. It gave the Habs more certainty going into those critical periods.

The no-trade clause, while a potential negative, could also be viewed as a positive as it shows Plekanec's commitment to the Habs. He meant it when he said he wants to play in Montreal. The length in contract too is another sign of that commitment, and it also helps solidify the Habs pivot position for years to come.

When taken in conjunction with the Halak trade, it's obvious that their playoff MVP was moved to create the necessary cap space to sign Plekanec. And because Ellers was identified as the main player in return, one has to wonder about the future of Dominic Moore and/or Glen Metropolit in the short term, and Scott Gomez the long term. If Ellers works out as Gauthier thinks he will, he and Plekanec will form a solid one-two punch down the middle for the Habs.

But for all those positives, one has to wonder about the money. $5M seems a bit much for a player who seems to go invisible during the playoffs. By comparison, Ryan Kesler was in the same position as Plekanec (first time UFA at age 25) and also got $5M/yr. But Kesler also got fewer years, is a bigger body, had more points in both the regular season and playoffs, is better in the faceoff circle, and has a right handed shot to boot.

All of that says that the Habs overpaid Plekanec by maybe $1M/year. That kind of money would no doubt come in handy for a team that now has only $9M in cap space to sign their remaining free agents and fill out the roster.

Not as bad as it would seem

2010-06-20T07:53:00.000-07:00

Trading your playoff MVP for a pair of prospects may not seem like the most shrewd opening move for Pierre Gauthier’s first offseason as Habs GM. But as we noted in our analysis of the Habs’ goaltending needs, small goalies like Halak were bound to be a bit of a risk.

So while Halak may be worth more than two (highly rated) prospects, he also might be worth less. At least Gauthier covered his bets by trading him to a Western Conference team, where Halak would be less likely to haunt his former team, either in the regular season or the playoffs.

And Gauthier did address some needs. The Habs are desperate for size up front, some scoring punch, and right handed shots. It’s too bad that all couldn’t be combined in the same player: if Ellers had Schultz’s size, grit and right handed shot, this would have been a much better deal. But Ellers may be the insurance Gauthier needs if he can’t sign Plekanec. Or if Gauthier can’t afford Plekanec by going after a big fish like Patrick Marleau instead. But the most likely reason for the trade is not the players received, but the cap space gained to both sign Plekanec and keep Hamrlik.

As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.

And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.

Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.

And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.

Blueline outlook: all about the PK

2010-06-02T12:10:00.000-07:00

And we're not talking penalty kill. PK Subban's playoff performance was a revelation, mostly in the good sense. Sure he had some Bergeron-esque adventures in the defensive zone. But these are the sorts of mistakes you expect from a 20 year old rookie.

And for that reason, we may have seen the end of Marc Andre Bergeron's tenure with the Habs. After all, at the end of the season, the Habs were carrying nine defenseman on their roster. Most teams only carry seven.

With the blueline depth the Habs currently have in the minors (Yannick Weber, Mathieu Carle, Shawn Belle, etc), they ought to be safe with carrying only 7 defensemen. Paul Mara will almost certainly be one of the nine to go.

But I think MAB's value on the PP and relatively light cap hit will keep him around. Instead look for Gauthier to move one of the more highly paid defensemen, especially since additional, more pricey help up front will be needed and UFA's and RFA's need to be re-signed.

Hamrlik and Markov are the most highly paid and trading either could help clear some cap space. But don't expect Markov to be traded. He proved his value to the club -- when he was out, the Habs struggled. Hamrlik is much more expendable, but it might be difficult to get someone to take on his salary.

Still, he is a veteran presence, and is often given credit for tutoring Dion Phaneuf during his stint in Calgary. He could fit in well on a team that is a little young on their blueline, which probably also means they have the cap space to fit him too.

One team that comes to mind are the Anaheim Ducks. They lost Pronger and Beauchemin last season, and this season may lose Niedermayer to retirement and Ward to free agency. That leaves them with Visnovsky as their sole veteran presence along the blue line.

The Ducks are also interesting because they have a plethora of young, big, right-handed forwards, exactly what the Habs lack. It's unlikely that they would part with Perry, Getzlaf or Ryan, and definitely not straight up for Hamrlik. But maybe a Lupul, Bodie or Brown? Lupul brings some cap issues in return, so other players would have to be involved. But he also brings more proven scoring prowess than the other two.

Gauthier might also consider trading Gill or Spacek, the next two most highly paid dmen. But both bring a lot of value relative to their cap hits, as evidenced during the playoffs. Gorges and O'Byrne are young, cheap and may be the new shut down pair for years to come. They're untouchable.

So next year, the defensive pairings may very well look like the following:
Markov-O'Byrne
Spacek-Subban
Gorges-Gill
Bergeron

Next up: analyzing the forward line needs.

An Embarrassment of Riches

2010-05-27T17:14:00.000-07:00

Today we look at the situation between the pipes. The Habs have two very good goalies. No, make that one outstanding goalie and another very good with a lot of promise. Both are young and restricted free agents this off-season.

As RFA's, the Habs could underpay them, offering them just enough to keep other teams at bay. Or the Habs could try to lock them up long term, beyond when they turn 27 and become eligible for UFA status. This would probably apply more to Halak (24 yrs old) than Price (22 yrs old).

But I don't think there will be any long term contracts for either, mostly because of rule changes next year. Goalie pads will now be regulated according to the size of the goalie. No more of those extra large pads that extend up to the goalie's waist.

The effect of those oversized pads was most noticeable with butterfly-style goalies. The pads closed up the five-hole, leaving the goalie free to use the paddle to cover up other areas.

One would think the rule change would affect Halak more than Price. After all, Price is a much bigger goalie than Halak, and covers up a lot of net with or without the large pads. But Halak showed a lot of mental toughness, especially during the playoffs.

Price hasn't shown that kind of toughness, given his propensity to let in a soft goal every so often. Still Price showed a lot of maturity in accepting his backup role, and could be seen encouraging Halak, practicing hard, and calling out teammates who didn't put in the necessary work. Even his two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in that one Washington game could be seen it this light. Sure he went a bit overboard with his team spirit, but knowing where the line is is something that comes with experience.

So while there is a lot of promise in their young netminders, there are a lot of question marks too. Bet on Gauthier offering a one or two year deal to Halak, in the $2M to $2.5M annual cap hit range. Price might get a longer contract, given his younger age, but at a lower annual cap hit. Maybe $1M to $1.5M?

These low amounts will also be necessary for Gauthier to re-sign most of his RFA's, as well as his important UFA's, none more important than Plekanec.

Up next: blue line changes.

UFA countdown

2010-05-25T12:49:00.000-07:00

Now that the season is over, Pierre Gauthier and company can concentrate on what the next year may bring. And with such a long playoff run, they have a lot of data to sift through. But even without crunching the numbers, it's evident that the Habs are strongest on the blueline and between the pipes. These are great building blocks. So Gauthier must focus on how to upgrade his corps of forwards, and search for players with the skill and speed to match the Giontas and Cammalleris, but enough size to create space for them as well.

There is one player with all those qualities, and due to be an unrestricted free agent this July 1: Patrick Marleau. But with his 44 goals this regular season, and a similar performance in the playoffs (despite playing much of the time with No Show Joe), Marleau will be a hot commodity.

How hot? Currently he carries a $6.3M cap hit. To lure him away from the team that drafted him and the only team he has played for in his 12 years in the league, any GM would have to significantly boost that amount. His teammate Dany Heatley carries a $7.5M cap hit. With UFA inflation, that could easily go to $8M. There are some who question his mental toughness and and others who say he won't fare as well without Thornton. Both unfounded, especially given his most recent playoff performance, but they might serve to at keep him at or under $8M.

But the Habs are only $12M or $13M under the cap for next year. Much of that will go to signing or replacing three of their top four centers (Plekanec, Moore and Metropolit). Another chunk will go to re-signing RFA's, especially Halak. Assuming Marleau gets $7.5M to $8M and replaces Plekanec as the #1 center, then Moore and Metropolit would have to be replaced with minimum wage UFA's or minor leaguers (Maxwell and White?). And the RFA's will all have to be low balled, probably on one year deals while the Habs wait out the economy and hope for a higher cap the following year -- and also hope no other team is willing to part with the compensation necessary to pry away a Halak.

Or maybe there's another scenario where Marleau could wear le bleu, blanc et rouge. Maybe by replacing the only center who is under contract, a contract that just happens to carry a very similar cap hit as the one Marleau would command. We're talking about Scott Gomez of course. This topic has been addressed ad nauseum in this space. And nothing has changed, even during the course of the playoffs. Gomez is a good player. He's just not worth the cap hit he currently costs.

But it's that same issue that will make it almost impossible to trade him. So the Habs will either gut their roster to get Marleau, or have to look elsewhere. Next up: looking elsewhere.

Post mortem

2010-05-25T10:24:00.000-07:00

Well, that was a helluva ride. Given that they were the 16th seed, rising to the top four is well beyond anyone's expectations. Still, there is room to improve and the deep run into the playoffs exposed this team's strengths and weaknesses.

To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:

The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.

With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.

The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.

Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.

Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.

Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.

The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak

Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.

It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.

Trade deadline 2010

2010-03-03T12:51:00.000-08:00

As much as Gomez's contract is the single biggest albatross on the books right now, he probably won't be traded. Not with the Habs contending for a playoff spot, and Gomez dutifully (albeit expensively) centering the second line. Neither will Halak, not given his stellar clutch performances in the Olympics -- that kind of play will be needed in the next 20 games and come April.

No, there is another player who is 1) garnering interest; 2) will free up cap space for an additional acquisition this season; and 3) free up space for next season to sign various RFA's as well as Plekanec next year. That player is Hal Gill.

Gill's value in any one game can be correlated in inverse proportion to the number of skaters on the ice: 5-on-5, he's a liability; 5-on-3, his long reach can take away an entire side of of the ice. Further, his inability to skate is less evident in short-handed situations, esp when down 2 men. During those times, one needs positioning, reach and size more than foot speed.

And for this reason, the Penguins want him back -- and presumably others in the playoff hunt who need help on the PK. The Habs would do well to trade him. His $2.25M cap hit isn't much, but when added with the others that will come off the books next summer, it might be just enough to squeeze Plekanec in, as well as the minor raises due to various RFA's.

Gill may also be expendable because of the play of PK Subban. In his brief stint, Subban showed he was ready for the NHL. He might not be able to kill penalties like Gill, but his offensive prowess may more than offset that. Plus, on the odd occasion he did get beat on the defensive end, he quickly hustled back to get back in position.

There are other Habs who also may be expendable because of Subban, namely Bergeron and Mara. Bergeron would gain more interest because of his versatility and howitzer of a shot.

In return the Habs should be looking for more secondary scoring. When all four lines are clicking, an opposing coach will have difficulty determining matchups (see Canada's 4 game win streak to end the Olympics). The Plekanec and Gomez lines are settled, esp when Andrei Kostitsyn gets back. The fourth line could be comprised of Darche, Metropolit and Lapierre -- size, some speed and lots of grit. That leaves Moen, Sergei Kostitsyn and Dominic Moore for the third line.

While that line is defensively capable, it lacks much scoring punch -- aside from Kostitsyn. So it would be nice to ship Moore or Moen off for an upgrade on the offensive end, preferably someone with a right handed shot to balance out that line. And some size would be nice too.

That's a tall order, admittedly. But some combination of Gill, Mara, Bergeron and/or Moore (and maybe some prospects) could do the trick.

Oops, gotta go!

2010-02-09T12:24:00.000-08:00

Such strange timing, even if one accepts Gainey's reasoning: a GM needs to be focused on the long term, and he doesn't see himself here for much longer. But if that's so, why not step down at the end of last season, when huge decisions had to be made about the future of the team?

To recap, half the team went UFA. He attempted to keep two: Kovalev and Komisarek. Both fortunately fled elsewhere for similar money, allowing Gainey to pick up better replacements: Gionta and Spacek. (Gainey seriously lucked out here). And then he let everyone else go, including replacing their long time captain with a similarly skilled centerman -- only to pay him twice as much. Or as Pierre LeBrun sums it up: "Mercy. The wrong center is making money in Montreal"

But Gainey now says he wants to let someone with a more long term commitment take over so that they can put their mark on the club? Sorry, bub, but you already did that -- and not very well either, given the Habs' tenuous hold on a playoff spot.

And that's actually worse than being a confirmed loser like the Leafs or Canes. At least they know they are sellers and have started rebuilding. The Habs have no idea what they will be before the March 3 trade deadline.

So now it will be Gauthier's problem to squeeze Tomas Plekanec under the cap. And so long as the Habs keep sniffing around a playoff spot, Gauthier will be forced to hold onto to Gomez, Gill, Halak and any other rumored departures. But he also can't sell off the future (including Price) for a short term rental, because even if they do get in, they're not going far.

Unmitigated Disaster? Times Two?

2010-02-01T21:18:00.001-08:00

From espn.com's Scott Burnside, this little nugget in the aftermath of the big Phaneuf trade: "... Olli Jokinen, Sutter's big trade-deadline acquisition last season, ... has been an unmitigated disaster. Jokinen has just 11 goals and 35 points this season, far below what a top-line center making his kind of money ($5.5 million this season) should be producing. It's worth noting that Matthew Lombardi -- the roster player who went to Phoenix in the Jokinen deal -- has 10 goals and 35 points and is making $2.35 million."

Interestingly, this year Scott Gomez is making almost twice as much as Olli Jokinen. $10M to be exact. And he also has only 35 points, to go with only 7 goals.

So if Olli Jokinen is an "unmitigated disaster" what does that make Scott Gomez?

A proposal, v. 2

2010-01-27T10:18:00.000-08:00

Dallas isn't the only Western Conference team in need of a long term goaltending solution and with significant cap space to. St. Louis also fits that description.

The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.

So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.

But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.

Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.

The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.

And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.

But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.

So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:

Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre

Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.

That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA) -Gionta
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen

That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...

A proposal

2009-12-20T09:03:00.000-08:00

So Jaroslav Halak wants out? With Carey Price solidifying his play (save his troublesome glove hand; use a broken-in mitt, Carey!), Halak is somewhat expendable. "Somewhat" because Price hasn't proven that he can't be a Brodeur-like iron man. Martin has tried, at least twice starting Price in both games of a back-to-back. And both times Price looked good in the opener, and somewhat suspect in the closer. To wit:

So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.

But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.

So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.

So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.

So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.

Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.

The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.

Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.

So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.

And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.

So the lines might look something like this:

Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini

Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...

Another look at the ugly

2009-12-05T12:20:00.000-08:00

With a quarter of the season played, the last post looked at Bob Gainey's Extreme Habs Makeover. Most of it looked pretty good. A few bad moves, to be sure. And Gainey certainly got lucky by not re-signing a couple of players he had no business chasing in the first place.

But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...

1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.

You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.

But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.

There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.

2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.

3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.

4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.

Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.

The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.

But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.

But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.

Extreme Habs Makeover: the good, the bad and the ugly

2009-11-15T16:58:00.000-08:00

So here we are, 23 games into the season. After a poor start, the team is definitely on the upswing, overcoming extensive injuries with disciplined play and outstanding goaltending. So is Gainey's pre-season plan of going small and fast up front, and big and experienced on the blue line paying off? Most of the acquisitions (and deletions) were for the better. Some, just the opposite. And one in particular looks like it will haunt the Habs for years to come. A look at all of the pre-season changes:

The Good
First the acquisitions:

Mike Cammalleri: Leads the team in goals, despite being bounced around between the first and second lines. Bonus? Leads the team in +/-.

Brian Gionta: Second on the team in goals, and provides valuable leadership to boot. He won the Cup with New Jersey, and is the closest thing to a captain the Habs currently have.

Jaroslav Spacek: Leads all defensemen in +/- and second to defense partner Hamrlik in ATOI.

Travis Moen: His size has been effective in playing the kind of puck possession game Martin desires, and wears down opposing defenses with his aggressive forecheck (leads the team in hits). This sort of grinding style will pay off in the playoffs -- assuming the Habs reach the playoffs. Bonus? Cup-winning experience in Anaheim, and his unexpected offense.

Jacques Martin: Sure he's not a player, but he was a good hire. The players seems to be buying into his system, winning even with half the team as callups from Hamilton. Hockey can be won on talent alone, but it's discipline that usually gets you over the top.

Now the additions by subtraction:

Alex Kovalev: His inconsistency and drama are now Ottawa's problems. And yet Gainey was apparently ready to give him the same deal. If it weren't for some miscommunication, we'd have AK-27 instead of Gionta.

Mike Komisarek: Essentially replaced by the much steadier and cheaper (albeit less splashy) Jaroslav Spacek. Komisarek’s shortcomings have been commented upon before; no need to belabor the point. And yet he was another near Gainey re-signing, making me wonder if Gainey prefers highlight reel hockey rather than actual effectiveness.

Mathieu Schneider: He provided offense no doubt. But how often in playing the point on the PP did he let speedy forwards blow by him for a shorthanded chance?

Mathieu Dandenault and Francis Bouillon: These were decent 6th and 7th dmen, and Dandenault's versatility paid dividends. But it's time to give some of the youngsters a shot.

Tom Kostopolous and Robert Lang: Both players were solid in their respective contributions. Tom Nonstopolous was really best suited as a energy-providing 4^th liner. Lang was a great contributor on the PP as the only right-handed scoring forward, but there’s simply no space on the roster for him.

The Bad
Again, acquisitions first:

Paul Mara: Leads the D in hits, but is last in blocked shots among d-men who have played every game. He brings experience and size, but takes minutes from youngsters. And it looks like Gainey could have had Bergeron for a cheaper price and better offense – although at a cost of more heart-stopping adventures in his own zone.

Hal Gill: Yes, he just won the Cup. But $4.5M over two years for essentially a 7th dman? Markov, Gorges, Hamrlik, Spacek, O'Byrne and even Bergeron, Mara and Leach have played better D. He is the proverbial pylon, albeit a Paul Bunyan-sized version.

Now, the deletions:
Saku Koivu: There should have been some transition from old to new, as witnessed by the Habs' extremely poor start. And no one has claimed the mantle of Captain, something that Koivu did with extraordinary skill. He would have been an effective 2nd line center behind Plekanec, and his faceoff skills are sorely missed.

Alex Tanguay: Yes, he passes when he should shoot. But the Habs were much more dynamic when he was in the lineup as he made just about any line click. He led the team in +/- and was second on the team in points per game despite only 16:05 ATOI. Plus, he was the closest thing to a hometown hero the Habs have iced since Jose Theodore.

The Ugly
Scott Gomez: He has played decent hockey (and so wasn't a bad acquisition), but he's just not worth what the Habs gave up. He has put up second line center numbers, but for franchise center money.

Worse, his signing handcuffs the Habs for years to come. Some have suggested that Gainey only made the trade so that Gionta would sign. But Gainey only turned to Gionta after he didn't hear anything from Kovalev’s agent – all days after the Gomez trade.

With all that cap space, Gainey could have signed Koivu and Tanguay. He could have kept Higgins (an effective penalty killer who was going UFA anyway) and one of his best blue line prospects in McDonagh. And he might have had Koivu and Tanguay for less money than each settled for in Tampa respectively, simply because a multi-year deal could have been offered.

And what of next offseason, when Plekanec and Metropolit go UFA> and Price and Lapierre are RFA's? Plekanec will almost certainly go elsewhere – especially since next year the cap will most likely shrink. The Habs will simply not be able to afford him. Heck, with a shrinking cap, they won’t be able to afford Metropolit. The Gomez trade in by itself may undo all the other good work done by Gainey this offseason.

Gomez vs Koivu

2009-07-12T09:47:00.001-07:00

An interesting comparison of the basic career stats of Scott Gomez vs those of Saku Koivu (full years only):

More or less identical. Gomez has a better plus/minus average -- the latter padded by his years playing the trap in New Jersey. Probably the only true advantage that Gomez has is that he gets injured less. But is that really worth a $7.357M/yr cap hit vs Koivu's $3.5M deal with Anaheim?

And for all the Guy Bertrand followers out there, Gomez doesn't speak a lick of French, in private or public.

Pathetic

2009-07-05T09:35:00.000-07:00

What exactly was Bob thinking? Maybe he wasn't. After all, the only UFA's he went after were Komisarek and Kovalev, probably the last ones most Habs fans would have selected, judging by the vitriol thrown their way on the way out. And then when Kovalev supposedly didn't get back to him on his offer he went hog wild on a bunch of second-tier UFA's. No Hossa. No Sedin twins. Gomez, Gionta and Cammalleri. How utterly underwhelming.

And it wouldn't have been so bad had he not sunk much of his future cap space into these three players. Three players who are notably not the "big centreman" he supposedly was looking for.

Certainly size and strength are overrated in today's NHL. Just ask the Red Wings or Penguins. But paying superstar money to non-superstars is simply insane. While the Habs might get under the cap this season, next year's cap is sure to shrink significantly -- at the same time that Bob needs to sign Lapierre and Price, among other RFA's.

This year? He'll be lucky if he gets $1.5M under the cap after signing all his RFA's, assuming he doesn't try to shore up his defense with another veteran dman (which might be needed). Next year, more cuts will be necessary to both get under the cap and keep Lapierre and Price.

But it wasn't all bad. Letting Komisarek walk was probably ok. The Leafs overpaid for a guy that still has a lot to learn about playing positional defense. But if he does learn that while playing with the Leafs, he'll be well worth it. Spacek is a decent replacement, but it would be nice if they got a right hander instead to round out the top 4 (Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik are all lefties).

Gionta was also a decent pickup, being the cheapest (and smallest) of the smurf-like overhaul. He's a desperately needed right handed shooting scoring forward. Only D'Agostini and Lapierre could be (generously) described as such.

As for the rest, here's what Habs GM would have done:

Gill? Sign Phillippe Boucher instead. He's not as big (who is?), but at least he won't be skirted around like a giant pine tree on a downhill slalom course -- like Gill often is. Boucher's got a wicked right handed shot, and would push for a top four spot. He probably could have been signed for the same amount too. The fact that he's French-Canadian is only a bonus.

Cammalleri? Re-sign Tanguay instead. Why exactly did we give up a first round pick to the Flames anyway? When he was healthy, he pushed the Habs to another level. And sure it was frustrating when he passed instead of shot, but he was one of the few Habs to at least create scoring chances. Whatever line he was on seemed to click. He would certainly have been cheaper, maybe half as much as the $6M/yr doled out to Cammalleri. And again, French-Canadian. Only a bonus.

Gomez? Re-sign Koivu, thereby not trading away our best defensive prospect (McDonagh) in the process. Higgins seemed to be headed to a third or fourth line, defensive-specialist role, so he wasn't a huge loss. But Koivu could have been had at much less than half the cap hit as Gomez, and for about the same production.

With the money saved by getting Koivu and Tanguay instead of Cammalleri and Gomez, Gainey could have easily gone after Hossa. Hossa's cap hit was only $5.23M, albeit over a much longer term (but we've gone over that before). Or save it and go after a big name in 2010 -- Jokinen? Marleau? Kovalchuk? All UFA's.

Instead, we will be treated to about the same on ice product as the last few years, just with more speed and less skill. How is that an improvement?

Roster Moves: forwards

2009-05-08T22:27:00.000-07:00

The forwards who played last year were all about speed and skill. Size and strength weren't as evident. While the Habs definitely need to keep the speed and skill (see Detroit, Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh), size and strength should also be added, where possible.

Those from last year that don't fit this model are Georges Laraque and Glen Metropolit. Laraque has plenty of size, but seemed reluctant to use it. He also has zero skill. And with the upcoming crackdown on fighting, his value is greatly diminished. Metropolit was on the smaller side, esp for a defensive forward, and had limited skill. He was also the only center to lose more than half of his faceoffs. He's a checking line center on a team that already has a more effective checking line center (Lapierre), and another on his way up (Chipchura). Both Laraque and Metropolit should be released or traded.

Gregory Stewart is similar, but should be re-signed and assigned to Hamilton. Like Laraque, he has zero skills, and is much smaller than Laraque. Still, he at least attempted to leverage whatever he had, and generally got under opponents' skin.

The rest is easy: every other UFA and RFA forward who played regular shifts last year should be re-signed. While that ensures another year of speed and skill, it also offers some (limited) opportunity to get bigger.

Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Max Pacioretty. He played responsible hockey last year with the big club, and showed flashes of being the power forward the Habs desperately need. Another player with size is Robert Lang. Hopefully he can return from that foot injury unscathed, although he was already maybe the slowest player last year -- and will turn 39 this year. But right handed, scoring centers are in short supply this offseason.

The Habs also should re-sign every man from their most potent line: Tanguay, Koivu and Kovalev. When on the ice, they were a good match for almost any line in hockey. Having Lang back will provide decent second line scoring, and provide good matchups against most opponents.

Plekanec centering the third line will be a bit like Patrice Bergeron centering the same line for the Bruins. Having that kind of scoring potential on the third line shows how deep the Habs can be. His dogged, hounding-the-puck style of play should also provide some defensive coverage, especially when paired with Chris Higgins.

Lapierre's line would then form maybe the best two-way line in all of hockey. They would provide defense, energy, size, and even a bit of scoring, especially from Latendresse and Lapierre. This line may have been the most consistent throughout the year, at least when healthy.

The lines might go something like this (free agents marked with asterisk):
*Tanguay-*Koivu-*Kovalev
Pacioretty-*Lang-A.Kostitsyn
Higgins-*Plekanec-D'Agostini
Latendresse-Lapierre-*Kostopolous
bench: Sergei Kostitsyn, *Dandenault

This lineup has a right handed shot in every line (except Lapierre's which has two). It also mixes the youngsters like Pacioretty and D'Agostini amongst the veterans. D'Agostini especially needs to play with players who are defensively responsible, and can help teach him that part of the game.

Plekanec's line is almost all speed. D'Agostini is probably the fastest on the team, followed by Higgins. They'll be tough to pin down, and will blow by many an attempted hip check.

Lang's line has quite a bit of size, although a bit slower than Plekanec's. But if Kostitsyn and Pacioretty hit like they can hit, this will be a tough line to play against. This especially applies to Kostitsyn, who can deliver big hits but doesn't seem willing to do so -- except when he's pissed off. If he had the attitude of his brother, he would be lethal.

Speaking of whom, his brother will hopefully have learned to control his emotions a bit better and should make the team again. He'd make a great backup should anyone on the top two lines go out. Dandenault would provide relief for the bottom two lines, esp if D'Agostini has defensive zone issues again. Dandenault also is the 8th defenseman, so he might be seeing plenty of playing time.

So there you have it. Not much different than last year sure, but this is essentially the team that took the Habs to their best first-half record ever -- before all the injuries hit. Why mess with a good thing? Besides, the UFA market isn't brimming with superstars. If any significant changes are to come, they would have to be via trade -- and we already addressed that unlikely scenario.

To come: crunching the numbers on the various signing scenarios.

Roster moves: Post-Komisarek blueline

2009-05-05T23:16:00.000-07:00

Let's assume Big K opts for free agency, and signs a monster contract with some struggling team. The Habs still have a lot of options to fill the void, but need to go with someone who can help spark the offense.

Besides the obvious importance defensemen have in protecting the net, this position is where a lot of offense is generated these days. A lot of goals are either deflections or seeing-eye shots through a thicket of legs and sticks. Thus someone who can uncork one from the point has a lot of value. Most of this has to do with the size of goaltenders today -- and the size of their pads (but more on that in a later post).

Offense was ostensibly the reason the Habs signed Brisebois and traded for Schneider. But the Habs should take a pass on both, because both have limited defensive skills. Brisebois is the least effective of the two. Easily pushed off the puck, he also doesn't have much of a shot. While he is a decent PP QB, that's not enough to keep him with the team, especially when there are other options -- without the drawbacks.

Schneider was much better than Brisebois, but had similar shortcomings. He helped revive a dormant PP with his howitzer of a shot. But he is just too slow to play an effective defensive role. Playing the point on the PP often left him alone along the blueline. If a puck were ever to escape the zone, almost any opposing forward could beat him to the puck and create a short-handed breakaway.

Instead, the Habs are going to have to look outside. The most intriguing UFA available is Philippe Boucher. He has a powerful, right handed shot and likes to play the body with his 6'3", 218 pound frame. In his last full season (2006-07), he was second among Stars defensemen with 159 hits, tied for first in plus/minus, first in goals (with 19) and second in points. But the key is "full season." He hasn't played one since then, being felled by one injury or another.

It's difficult to say if he's injury-prone. It could simply be two straight years of bad luck. In any case, should the Habs take a run at him, the contract should have a provision for games played. Still, it would be nice to have a Quebec-born player playing big minutes on the blueline again.

Another player that might fit the bill is Francois Beauchemin. He's somewhat smaller (6'0" and 207 lbs) and is a left handed shot, but has many similarities to Boucher: loves to play the body, has a pretty decent shot, and a Quebec native to boot. He's also coming off an injury, but has played significantly more than Boucher recently.

Of the two, Boucher is the better fit. He's bigger and his right handed shot would complement Markov nicely. Further, with three lefties under contract, Gainey needs to sign righties. Boucher also only made $2.5M last year, and would be hard pressed to get more than that given the last two years.

With Markov, Boucher, Hamrlik and Gorges, that leaves room for three or four more d-men. This is the easy part. Re-sign Bouillon and Dandenault as the #7 and #8. The fact that Dandenault can effectively play both forward and defense is a depth asset that many GM's and coaches would covet. Further, Bouillon is left handed and Dandenault right, giving the future coach flexibility come injury time.

The other two positions can be filled by O'Byrne and Weber. This is somewhat risky, as having two green defensemen can causes problems. But O'Byrne grew a lot last year, especially in the playoffs. And Weber was thrown into the fire as well late in the season. And both have right handed shots, nicely complementing the other regulars. Their shortcomings can be somewhat mitigated by pairing with a solid, defensive oriented veteran. Maybe something like this?:
Markov-Boucher
Hamrlik-O'Byrne
Gorges-Weber

As the more seasoned player, O'Byrne gets the nod over Weber. But Weber will be an effective PP point man, playing right behind Boucher. And with Bouillon and Dandenault waiting in the wings, the Habs have some effective veteran backup should the youngsters stumble.

If Komisarek somehow loses his mind and re-signs with the Habs, the blueline looks much better. One option is to replace O'Byrne in the lineup. They both play similar roles after all. Another more interesting option is to not sign Boucher and let Big K play the point. Komisarek came in 4th at the NHL all star game "hardest shot" competition, recording a 98.5 mph slapper. Of course, these competitions are different than regular play, but he does have it in him. Perhaps some decent coaching might coax him to uncork one once in a while during a game? He almost never plays the PP, so who knows how well he might do?

This option also affords the Habs a bit more cap room, as signing Komisarek would significantly shrink the space available to sign anyone else, including Boucher's likely smallish contract. We'll address all these cap considerations at a later point, after breaking down the forward lines in the next post.

Interlude

2009-05-04T22:02:00.000-07:00

A small break from the critical work at Habs GM, to bring you an update on the impact of this year's playoffs. The most entertaining series of the year is sure to be the Penguins and Capitals: Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green and rookie sensation Varlamov vs. Crosby, Malkin, Guerin, Gonchar and Fleury. Game 2 was Crosby's hat trick vs Ovechkin's -- great stuff. Too bad this matchup of the two most talented teams had to come before the conference finals.

But the most important series is between the last two Cup winners: Detroit and Anaheim. This series is a study in opposites. Detroit is smaller, more skilled and loaded with (not-so-soft) Europeans. Anaheim is huge, less skilled (but still fast) and loaded with North Americans who love the physical game. They're like linebackers on skates.

Typically, GM's will look to past Cup winners and try to copy their rosters. The Red Wings-Penguins final last year was great for hockey, as it had two of the most skilled teams in the final. A similarly good final this year would involve either the Red Wings or Blackhawks from the West and Penguins or Capitals from the East.

Not so good for hockey would be an Anaheim-Boston final. Both play with speed and some skill. But they emphasize size over skill -- especially Anaheim.

The good news is that Anaheim has had to rely largely on their game breaker of a goaltender. While their top line of Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan causes all sorts of havoc, and is huge to boot, Hiller is often the difference maker. How far Hiller can take them?

Hopefully not past the Wings.

Roster moves: Mike Komisarek

2009-05-03T22:24:00.000-07:00

The last post dealt with the goaltending situation. Continuing on out from the net, the blueline makeover is next. This one is particularly challenging, and perhaps where Gainey has the most work to do.

Only three regulars -- Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik -- are under contract next year. This is a fairly solid core to build around: able to play good defense, gets the puck out of the defensive zone quickly and sets up forwards for scoring opportunities. Markov is clearly the best of the three, and probably the best defenseman to play for the Habs in a number of years.

The Habs rash of injuries last year proved that blueline depth is critical. Hockey is a defensive sport, and depth at goaltending and defense are critical. But the Habs can't rely on four or five of their prospects to fill the void either, as impressive as they are (O'Byrne, Weber, Carle, and Subban, to name a few). While it's nice to get some of the youngsters some much needed NHL ice time, at most only one or two can expect regular play with the big club-- and maybe only as part of the third pairing, lining up against the opposition's third and fourth lines.

Defense is simply much more difficult to play than offense. It is often more a matter of experience and good habits, and less instinct and skill. Most successful defensemen are not born, but rely on training and practice, doing the same thing over and over again until the memory is burned into every muscle. Take Nick Lidstrom. He might be the best in the business -- at 39 years old! Or his teammate, Chris Chelios: 47 years old, and taking regular shifts during these playoffs. 18 year old forwards are common but 18 year old defensemen are not.

One defenseman who did make the jump earlier than most was Mike Komisarek. He has done reasonably well as a young defenseman, but is still learning the game. He will often go for the big check, get tangled up and then ends up out of position. He also often fails to trust or communicate with his defensive partner, turning two-on-twos into two-on-ones and trying to play the pass between the opposing forwards.

The Habs know this, and won't offer him huge money. With the amount of players they need to re-sign, they can't afford to anyway. A long term contract would be justifiable, maybe as long as 10 years, but average somewhere between $4M/year and $5M/year. Markov should be the highest paid defenseman on the team, and his deal averages $5.75M/year (and only 4 years?!).

But Komisarek would be a fool to try to sign before he becomes goes UFA on July 1. If he waits, he will almost certainly get a huge contract from one of the struggling U.S. teams that needs to fill seats -- and Big K's brand of hockey fills seats. The bet here is that the Islanders will throw a front loaded, 15-year/$90M contract at him. He's a Long Island boy after all, and what better way for the Islanders to resurrect their moribund franchise than by signing one of their own. He would make an excellent partner for the left handed, offensively minded, smallish and not-very-physical Mark Streit.

Most of all the Islanders need to sell tickets. Look at what overpaying for Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell did for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. They ended up first in the league in attendance, averaging 22,247 per home game. The previous year they were 19th, averaging only 16,814. Splashy, big ticket free agent signings are expensive, but effective marketing. There might not be a better, quicker way of proving to the fans that you are committed to winning.

Even if Komisarek should opt for free agency, all is not lost for the Habs. Markov, Hamrlik and Gorges can fill three of the top four slots. Indeed, Gorges did an admirable job filling in while Big K was injured this year. Another four or five blueliners would be needed. One or two of those spots could be filled by one of the Bulldog regulars from last year. That leaves the need to sign three UFA's.

Next post: the rest of the Habs 2009-10 defensive corps.

Roster moves: goaltending

2009-05-02T22:01:00.000-07:00

Enough with the theory. On to the nuts and bolts of the 2009-10 edition of the Montreal Canadiens. Every team's most valuable player should be their goaltender. Hockey is in essence a defensive sport. And the goalie is the last line of defense. So it only holds that any team must be built from the pipes on out.

The Habs started out last season with what seemed like a pretty good goalie tandem. Toward the beginning of the year, Price and Halak may have been the best in the league. That soon faltered -- badly -- after the All Star break.

Price has clearly the more upside of the two, with a combination of size, skill, and inflappable demeanor (uh, usually). Some have argued that Price needs a better coach. That could be true, given some of his struggles last year. He often was too deep in his net, failing to challenge shooters. And he went down far too quickly, leading opponents to believe they could successfullly shoot high on him.

But some of this may be due to a lack of confidence, in addition to inadequate coaching. Price could then use a mentor, someone who has seen success between the pipes in the NHL, and is now ready to assume the elder counsel role -- but also still spry enough to spell the youngster on occasion.

That man may be Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig was Price's early mentor, when Price was with the Tri City Americans in the Western Hockey League -- part owned by Kolzig. So they have a history, and Price openly talked about Kolzig's mentorship in those days. Those very successful days.

Kolzig made $1.5M last year. He would have to take a significant cut to join the Habs. Or sign a front loaded, multi-year deal for a smaller cap hit (a loophole that the Habs should exploit before it is closed).

The only problem is that Kolzig is 39. And he didn't play all that well last year. After all, a #2 will have to do more than just teach.

Better options for actual goaltending might be Brian Boucher or Ty Conklin. Both are in their mid-30's and both posted very good years for very little money. For those same reasons, other teams will be after them too, so they won't be that cheap this year. But again, the multi-year deal can avoid the cap problem. The bigger issue is: can they mentor a young, confidence-challenged goaltender?

And then what of Jaroslav Halak? Two options: the Yann Danis route (eternity in the minors as injury insurance) or be traded. Halak would certainly pick up some trade interest, with his generally solid play and bargain rate price. And it would avoid the Yann Danis scenario of losing a quality netminder without compensation.

But if Halak goes, and both Price and his backup go down, who then? Cedrick Desjardins had a decent season for the Bulldogs, but was usually outplayed by NHL castoff Marc Denis. Not exactly the stuff of stellar resume. But still, he's only 20. He might be ready next year for a game or two.

Definition of Insanity

2009-04-28T21:20:00.000-07:00

There is an increasingly overused phrase that defines insanity as doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result. So perhaps some Habs fans and NHL pundits in general would deem it insanity for the Habs to reconstruct more or less the same roster as last year -- despite the flameout over the last half-season. But that's exactly what is proposed here, insane or not.

While many fans want to dump some of the current players, the simple fact is that there isn't a whole lot of UFA talent left out there to replace them. The Wings re-signed one of the most prized would-be UFA's (Franzen) and are apparently close to signing Hossa too. Koivu comes under constant criticism for not being a true #1 center. Take a look at the list of UFA centers next year. Koivu is near the top of that list.

Second, for whatever reason, not many players want to sign in Montreal, unless they already play for Montreal. The three most significant additions to the Habs last year -- Lang, Tanguay and Schneider -- all came via trade. In recent years, Hamrlik is the lone exception to this rule, but he already had narrowed his choices to the 6 Canadian teams. Other big free agent prizes like Hossa, Sundin and Shanahan were more the norm, and said "non, merci" to the, uh, opportunity to play in Montreal.

So the Habs either have to carry out a trade or two, or sign their current crop of free agents. For the first option, I would hope that the Lecavalier saga is over, now that Gainey has publicly berated Lightning GM Brian Lawton for allegedly using the Habs as leverage to get better deals for Lecavalier. Even if it weren't, how would Gainey get Vinny and still fit under the cap? He'd have to trade Andrei Kostitsyn and maybe his brother and a few other prospects like O'Byrne and Weber and not sign Koivu and Lang. Is Vinny really worth that much? Even without the lost players, is any player worth 20% of the cap? Not unless you're Roberto Luongo.

But signing most of the current roster is not just a matter of it being one of the few paths Gainey can take. It also makes good hockey sense.

This roster showed glimpses of brilliance, esp in the first half when the Habs posted their best record ever through 41 games. They were healthy, had confidence, and listened to the coaching staff. Granted, much of that fell away in the second half, saw a brief resurgence when Gainey took over, and waylaid by injuries (again) at the end.

But the core is still there: a top line to rival any other line in the league; secondary scoring; a gritty two way line; blue line depth; speed and skill throughout the roster.

The only thing missing is size, but size is overrated, at least in the new NHL. Playoff games were called more consistently this year, negating the size advantage that some teams may have. Last year it wasn't that way, and so Big Georges Laraque was obtained. Yet despite being the smaller team, the Habs outhit the Bruins. They recorded 115 hits in the 4 games, 40 more than the Bruins. Laraque only had 1o of them, so even if he hadn't played, the Bruins would have been significantly outhit.

Where size does matter, at least in part, is in protecting the puck. Can the player absorb a hit, or is he knocked off the puck easily? Can he take a hit to make a play? Some fans may cry for the return of Mike Ribeiro, but he is the epitome of a skill player easily relieved of the puck.

And even then, not every player who is strong on the puck is also big physically. Tiny Eric Perrin of Atlanta only had 21 giveaways in 78 games. And some of the big boys might be strong on the puck, can't do much with it anyway (see BGL). Still, if the choice were between a player with speed, skill and size vs the player with just speed and skill, the answer is easy. But those kinds of players aren't exactly a dime a dozen either.

The big test of this theory will be how the teams with speed and skill do in these playoffs. Those would be the Red Wings, Blackhawks, Penguins, Capitals and Sharks. Only the Sharks didn't advance, and that was mostly due to unbelievable goaltending on the part of Jonas Hiller. (The Caps almost faced the same fate until Lundquist couldn't carry the Rangers any more.)

To come: a breakdown of next year's roster.

Offseason Overview

2009-04-26T20:35:00.000-07:00

Bob Gainey really has his work cut out for him. A season just imploded before him, up close and personal. And now he has maybe half a team under contract for next year, with a salary cap that may shrink anywhere from 1 to 6 million dollars from the previous season. Who exactly will be the Montreal Canadiens next year? And how can they be competitive with such an impending drastic makeover?

Or so goes the prevailing pessimistic view. Chances are that it won't be nearly that bad. Sure the Habs have 15 free agents, 10 of the unrestricted variety. So the GM could go wild and try to sign a whole new lineup.

But as Elliot Friedman points out, it's just not necessary. And good thing too, because the way Habs fans and the media treat their players, who'd want to come here? Certainly not Brendan Shanahan, Mats Sundin or Marian Hossa. At least some of the current UFA's are at least making noises that they want to stay, as crazy as that seems. Which begs the question: if it's so bad in Montreal, why would they want to stay? But let's just take them at their word, and address the larger question of what the Habs can do to prevent the late season collapse and early playoff exit.

The easy answer is less injuries. They were simply snakebit this year, and played much of the 4 playoff games without their top guns, including Markov, Lang, Tanguay and Schneider.

But that doesn't explain the post-All Star break swoon. While injuries played some part, most of the poor showing was due to shoddy defense and goaltending. The players themselves -- at least the healthy ones -- had enough talent to do better than they did. Somehow that talent just wasn't showcased on ice.

Some part of that has to be coaching. After Carbo was fired and Gainey took over, some players perked up noticeably, esp Higgins and Kovalev. Gainey has to find someone who can continue that, and get the rest of the team playing as well. The Habs simply seemed to have stopped listening to Carbo, for whatever reason.

Friedman's article points out Price's recent deficiencies. He was spot on describing how Price is at his best when he seemingly doesn't move. He just plays positional goaltending and uses his big body to make the save. No theatrics necessary. Gainey has to hire someone who can better mentor and bring Price along, and maybe restore some of his confidence. Rollie Melanson may not be that guy.

But maybe the bigger portion of the offseason work is to sign a new team. As unpopular as this may seem, every current Habs RFA and almost every UFA should be brought back. With a lower cap a near certainty, this will take some fancy accounting to make it all pencil out. But as the Red Wings showed, the cap can be gotten around, if teams with the money are willing to bet long term on some of their star players. Who wouldn't want to lock up Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen for as long as possible? The same goes for Mike Komisarek and Alex Tanguay, and even older veterans like Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev.

So it might be possible to squeeze all those free agents under an even lower cap. But that begs the question: why sign the same roster that was more or less responsible for the implosion this season?

That's a big question, best taken up by another post.

Round 1, Game 4: Bruins 4, Canadiens 1

2009-04-22T21:47:00.000-07:00

Pretty much the same as before. Habs outgunned and outmanned. They tried to slug their way through it, but couldn't dislodge Boston. Simply too much skill on their side, and half our skill guys are in the infirmary.

But somehow that fact seems to escape the so called fans at the Bell Centre. First they boo the American anthem (in game 3 and tonight as well). Now they jeer Carey Price? He didn't have a good game 2, but on every night, on almost every goal, his defense abandoned him. Let's break it down, goal by pathetic goal:

1) Hamrlik forgets that Michael Ryder no longer plays for the Habs and lays out a perfect feed for him, leaving Price no time to react to such a bone headed play. Byron Bitz could have tossed that one in.

2) Higgins can't finish off his check on Krejci, who bursts past him, feeds it to Ryder on the right, who passes it right back. O'Byrne does a whirling dervish trying to keep track of the puck, and Price is left with no one guarding the back door.

3) Dandenault leisurely skates by the penalty box, failing to notice Kessel standing up and ready to bust out of the box just a few feet away. Kessel takes the feed from Bergeron, and goes in on what was maybe the 4th breakaway in the second period alone, and Kessel's second. Price got the others but doesn't get this one -- it was just a matter of time.

4) Ryder scores on a beautiful 3-on-2 passing play. Somehow the two Habs defenders fail to get a stick on the puck, and the back door is open yet again.

Price had a chance on only the third goal. And that's off the stick of Phil Kessel, for pete's sake. He of 36 regular season goals, leading the high octane Bruins. How is it that the supposedly knowledgeable hockey fans of Montreal fail to grasp that?

But perhaps I'm too harsh. There were some fans who tried to drown out the anthem booers tonight. And there were some fans who tried to drown out the booers at the end of the game, and show some appreciation for the way these Habs tried to battle through the injuries that decimated their squad.

But boy did there seem to be a lot of people jeering Price. I really hope those were two middle fingers he was holding up under his blocker and glove. Too bad he only had two.

Round 1, Game 3: Bruins 4, Canadiens 2

2009-04-21T21:31:00.000-07:00

Even when the Habs get a set of refs that seem tailor made to their makeshift lineup, they still can't pull it out. A sizable chunk of their skilled players -- Lang, Tanguay, Markov, Schneider -- can't play, due to one injury or another. That opens up space for the Habs' version of the Hansen brothers -- O'Byrne, Laraque, Stewart. And the refs misplace their whistles.

It all seems to come together for most of the first period. The Habs outhit, outmuscle and outplay the Bruins. But still they somehow manage to lose. Even without Lucic, the Bruins can play this game. They seemingly can play any game: Don Cherry style guts and glory, or Flying Frenchmen speed and skill.

The only thing that might come of this series is the opportunity for some of the youngsters to get a good dose of what playoff hockey is all about. That and maybe Bell Centre fans finding some class.

Round 1, Game 2: Bruins 5, Canadiens 1

2009-04-19T21:47:00.000-07:00

Ouch. So much for the theory that if the games are called tight (or at least as tight as regular season games), then the Bruins size advantage would be outweighed by the Habs' skill advantage. Turns out the Bruins have more skill than the Habs -- or at least the Habs that showed up Saturday night.

Maybe part of it was that Gainey was juggling like crazy, more than the insane idea of lining up Laraque with Koivu and Kovalev. At least he finally came to his senses and put the big line back out at the end. Making things worse was Bouillon coming in -- then promptly going out. Thank God for Mathieu Dandenault. He's switched from RW to D more than once this year, mid game, and done well enough each time. That better be good enough to resign him.

Maybe the other part was that perhaps their most talented player -- Andrei Markov -- still couldn't play. The Habs have some skill up front, one line's worth anyway. But the blue line doesn't have that kind of skill without Markov.

In today's NHL, scoring from the blueline is critical. The Bruins, Sharks and Red Wings all have it. Sure, the Habs have Schneider and Brisebois, but both are defensive liabilities. Markov is the only player that can play both ends.

Round 1, Game 1: Bruins 4, Canadiens 2

2009-04-16T21:09:00.000-07:00

Despite the outcome, Habs fans should be at least somewhat encouraged by the play of the Bleu, Blanc et Rouge. Despite all the warning signs of a rough-and-tumble series, both teams kept their emotions in check for the most part, and played decent hockey. The refs actually acted like they were being paid to enforce the rules, and called a good game by not letting the clutch-and-grab go unnoticed and keeping a free flow.

Their defense played pretty well, despite having a converted forward, an old fart who skates as fast as I do and another old fart who gets pushed off the puck easier than my 6 year old. Sure there were a few lapses, like Gorges' brain freeze of a cross check. He knows better, but it was probably just a matter of a little too much force applied to what was supposed to be an "I'm still here" reminder of a cross check.

One wonders what might be if Bouillon and especially Markov can return to the blue line. If the refs keep calling it tight, the series could very well tilt in the Habs' favor, where their skill and speed would be allowed room to operate.

For all these reasons, one hopes that Big Georges Laraque won't be skating on the first line again. And if Bouillon and/or Markov returns, Dandenault should move up front and nudge BGL out of the lineup altogether.

BGL was inserted to provide some toughness during these playoffs, and to protect the star players. Gainey signed him last off season for this very moment, after Philly and Boston both physically dominated the Habs last year. It's a decent strategy, esp with the Bruins adding more size themselves.

The problem is that BGL simply can't play hockey. He skates around in slow circles, mostly looking for someone to engage in some verbal jousting. And when he tries to play the body, he's usually not very successful -- he's so slow, there's plenty of time to get out of the way.

His stick handling skills are also atrocious. He was set up multiple times for some decent scoring chances, but couldn't even get a decent shot most of the time.

On the other hand, the man he swapped places with was the Habs' main offensive weapon. Tanguay had an assist, a game high +2, and would have had a PP goal had it not been for a pact-with-the-devil display of goaltending by Tim Thomas.

When Tanguay was on the ice -- no matter what line -- the ice started tilting toward the Bruins' end. This was obvious by mid-2nd period. And when Gainey had his big line out to start the 3rd, I had hope that he had seen it too. But Laraque soon resumed his position on Koivu's wing. Presumably he was there to give Kovalev and Koivu more room. It's hard to say if that worked, but it's almost a lock that Tanguay on that line would have resulted in better scoring chances.

Still, there is much reason for hope that this series might extend long enough for the Habs to get healthy and pull out a series win.

Paging Steve Begin

2009-04-10T08:27:00.001-07:00

The Habs return to postseason play in dramatic fashion. Who woulda thunk they'd do it with the 7th or 8th seed?

Regardless, the Habs showed some fight in the penalty filled penultimate regular season game with Boston. And all this without Big Georges Laraque and Gregory Stewart. Still, they managed to hold their own. Kind of.

Which really should make a Habs fan wistful for Steve Begin. Here was a good old Quebec boy who hit everything in sight. And with the playoffs looming, this is exactly what the Habs need.

As much as any fan of pure skilled hockey must hate it, the playoffs are all about gritty play, hard hitting and garbage goals. Habs fans must still remember all the goalie interference penalties that went uncalled when Carolina beat the Habs in seven a few years back. Rod Brind'Amour was viewed as a playoff hero, but most of those "goals" would have actually resulted in penalties in the regular season.

For this reason, Lapierre's line will do especially well in the playoffs. Latendresse has the most skill on this line, although Lapierre can do his share of scoring. And Kostopolous is the lone holdover from the "Lunchbucket Line" last year.

It didn't have to be this way. Sure, the Habs got an experienced dman in return. And experience along the blueline is very valuable, as the Habs found out when three of their top 6 dmen were all out at the same time (Markov, Schneider and Bouillon). But the Habs also had Dandenault playing forward. One could argue whether Dandenault or Janik would be better suiting protecting the defensive zone. But having Begin in the same lineup and especially available for the playoffs, I think the argument tilts toward the fact that this was not a good trade.

Sure the Habs got Glen Metropolit without giving up players or picks (or pucks for that matter). He's almost identical in size to Begin: both are 6'0" and around 195 lbs. And both have posted eerily similar stats this year. Metropolit has 6 goals and 11 assists in 71 games, about .23 pts/game. Begin has 8 goals and 5 assists in 61 games, good for .21 pts/game.

Metropolit is a right handed shot, and Gainey has shown a preference for trying to rebalance the Habs lineup. But come playoffs, balanced shots are nice but grit and energy rule the day. This year, Begin is among the league leaders in hits per minutes played.

Metropolit? In some games he seems to shy away from hits.

And while Metropolit makes $300k less than Begin, his contract extends into next year. Begin could have been invited back for the same amount as Metropolit, should Gainey want to keep him.

Had Begin stuck around, he might be centering the line with Higgins and Dandenault. That would give the Habs two lines that play strong on the puck, dish out hits, and take hits to make a play. If those two lines are thrown out against some of the other, harder hitting lines of any almost any playoff opponent, the two skilled lines (esp Koivu's), might find a little more space on the ice to do what they do best.

Fired!

2009-03-09T21:33:00.000-07:00

And about time, really. Carbo accomplished much, not the least being finishing first in the East last year after many pundits predicted the Habs might find it difficult to even make the playoffs. But he's made several puzzling decisions over the years. One area is how he treats the two players who have led them in goals scored since the lockout: Alexei Kovalev and Michael Ryder.

The differences in treatment couldn't have been more stark. Kovalev was (and has been) given all sorts of room to work through any sorts of slumps. If he was struggling offensively, Carbo simply gave him more time, as if to allow him as much time as possible to work through it on his own. But the only thing that seemed to work this season was when Gainey told him to not only sit out two games, but to just go home. Now that's a healthy scratch!

But Ryder's treatment was the polar opposite. Ryder was clearly struggling, and the past two seasons proved that he was a streaky scorer. But instead of riding it out and waiting for him to get it back in gear, Carbo benched him time and time again.

And all this while shuffling through various forwards in the effort to get a right handed shot on the power play. He even tried Bryan Smolinski several times -- while Ryder and his sniper shot sat in the press box. And with the way the PP was clicking last year, Ryder would almost certainly have gotten back in a groove sooner than later.

But perhaps the biggest proof for his failure is Ryder's runaway success with the Bruins under his old coach, Claude Julien. He has 23 goals in only 59 games. Even with the games missed due to injury, he seems well on his way to breaking his career record for goals.

Being the coach of the Habs is never easy. So one has to feel for Carbo for putting up with so much over the years, and now being so ignominously dumped. But it all boiled down to the fact that he didn't seem to have what it takes to motivate these players.

A word or two on Gainey's coach-selection strategy: he brought Carbo in as a rookie coach, having him stand with him behind the bench before he assumed the reins completely. Apparently the same is planned with Don Lever. Perhaps Gainey was impressed by the success of John Stevens in Philly and Bruce Boudreau in DC -- both promoted from the head coach position of each franchise's respective farm team.

Only time will tell if Gainey's strategy will work better the second time around.

Trade deadline 2009

2009-03-03T21:12:00.000-08:00

At the beginning of this season, the Habs were well positioned for a playoff push, perhaps even improving on their surprising showing from the previous season and maintaining the number one seed in the East. The trades for Alex Tanguay and Robert Lang, two top six forwards, did much to create Cup anticipation amongst longtime Habs fans.

Unfortunately, injuries to key players and spotty goaltending have cast doubt on some of those lofty goals. Both Tanguay and Lang have been on IR for extended periods of time, as well as Koivu, Latendresse and Komisarek. Carey Price also was injured, only to come back as a shell of his former self. The Kostitsyn brothers and Kovalev sideshows, and constant trade rumors didn't do much for team psychology either.

But Gainey hasn't given up. Kovalev was given a two game sabbatical, and then came back with 7 pts in 3 games. Sergei Kostitsyn was shipped off to Hamilton. Mathieu Schneider rejoined the Habs for a couple of draft picks. Glen Metropolit was picked up off waivers. The Habs seem to have responded with aggressive defense, a vastly improved PP and most of all, Jaroslaa Halak's otherworldly goaltending.

Gainey's most recent move was somewhat surprising (or at least telling), as Metropolit still has another year on his contract. His pickup also solidifies Lapierre's role as the #3 center. One then wonders what will happen to Lang, a UFA in the off season, and a vital cog in the Habs offense this year. Like Lang, Metropolit also gives the Habs another right handed centerman, and is decent in the faceoff circle: he was the top faceoff man for the Flyers this year.

His pickup had repercussions: Steve Begin became expendable, and allowed Kyle Chipchura to be sent back to Hamilton -- no doubt for more seasoning. Chipchura's defensive play still needs work (-6 in 13 games), as well as taking draws (a woeful 43.9%). Metropolit buys Chipchura another year, and makes $300k less than Begin. Not much especially this late in the season, but still more breathing room under the cap.

The next Hab rumored to leave is Mathieu Dandenault. Also a UFA at the end of the year, he would seem to have more trade value as a two way player. Perhaps only Bob Gainey could get away with decreasing the "French content" of the beloved Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.

Still, if Dandenault were to leave, it would be either straight up for draft picks or packaged with picks and/or prospects for an impact player. Such an impact player would almost certainly be a top six forward, someone basically to replace the lost offense when Lang went down.

If Gainey were to do that, he would be essentially signaling a return to the three scoring line, one checking/energy line format. Since Lang's injury, Habs have been using old school lines: two scoring lines, one two-way/checking line, and an agitator/energy line, (more or less) something like this:

Higgins-Koivu-D'Agostini
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Pacioretty-Lapierre-Kostopoulos
Stewart-Metropolit-Laraque

If Gainey were to pick up a top six forward, Carbo could dramatically reshape his forward lines for the playoffs. Assuming both Tanguay and Latendresse come back before the playoffs, the new lines might look something like this:

Tanguay-Koivu-new RW?
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Latendresse
S.Kostitsyn/Pacioretty/Stewart-Metropolit-Kostopoulos

D'Agostini will almost certainly be sent down once Tanguay and Latendresse are back. While he goes to the net, has lightning speed and has that rare right handed shot ... he is completely lost defensively. This is where outside help is needed.

LW on the 4th line is a toss up: Kostitsyn has the most experience; Pacioretty has been solid and deserves a shot; Stewart provides toughness. Laraque will almost certainly not play -- he is far too plodding for the playoffs.

Kostopolous (favorite nickname: Nonstopolous) has been a fixture on Lapierre's right side for virtually the entire season, even on the PK (which is odd, given that both are right handed). But if Gainey wanted three scoring lines, Kostopolous has to go down one line.

So who might the new RW be? Given that Lapierre is the only right handed shot on the top three lines, one would think another right hander would be ideal. Bill Guerin fits the bill, has size and experience, and is being shopped by the Islanders. But the last time he was a playoff rental, it didn't go so well: -3 and a measly 2 assists in 9 games for the Sharks.

The more interesting rumor is Milan Hejduk. He's a proven scorer with a right handed shot. He's far removed from his 50 goal year, but his 50 pts would tie for the team lead right now, and his 23 goals would be tops. However, he's not exactly the type to drive to the net and get the typical playoff-type garbage goal. And he's still under contract for next year, at $4M/yr. With all the other UFA's Gainey has to sign, this trade would saddle the club even further.

Gainey might decide to stand pat, and not sacrifice future cap room or prospects for a single shot at the Cup. But how fun could that be?

Lecavalier rumours

2009-01-12T12:42:00.000-08:00

TSN is trying to stir up some mid-season interest by circulating a rumour that Tampa Bay may be shopping Vincent Lecavalier and that the Habs are interested. Now the first part of that rumour may indeed be true. The Bolts committed way too much of the future cap space to just one player. Such was the reasoning for trading Brad Richards ($7.8M/yr through 2011) and Dan Boyle ($6.667M/yr through 2013) .

But Lecavalier is the one player that eats up most of the Bolts' cap space for the next few years. As the Tampa Bay brass is finding out, hockey is a team sport. You need more than just one superstar to carry the team. And if you're going to pay that kind of money, it better be for a true superstar who can change the outcome of any game almost single handedly.

There aren't many players like that, esp those that don't mind the pipes. But even then, even Luongo and Brodeur don't make that kind of money. And for those non-goalkeepers, there are only a few true game-changers like Ovechkin and Crosby.

And that's an interesting comparison. Ovechkin makes $9M/yr. So does Crosby -- and Malkin too. But Ovechkin is surrounded by cheap, young talent. Pittsburgh traded away all of that when they bet the farm on last year's Cup run. And as of this post, they are mired in the 10th spot in the East.

Instead, look at what Gainey has done in Montreal. No real superstars. But lots of balance across all the lines. And when top scorers like Koivu and Tanguay get hurt (or even a top 3 dman like Komisarek), they still don't miss a beat. Gainey has built a team with depth, and that can't be done in the cap era when you OD on a superstar.

And what would happen next year, when the likes of Koivu, Tanguay, Lang, Kovalev and Komisarek are all UFA's? How exactly are the Habs supposed to keep even some of that talent, AND pay Lecavalier AND keep winning? Sure the cap adjusts from year to year, but with this economy, it just might adjust downward.

So thanks, Tampa, but no thanks. Vinny and his enormous salary are simply not sustainable. While it would be nice to get one of the biggest Quebec-born stars in the bleu, blanc et rouge, such a move would be franchise suicide.

In praise of Josh Gorges

2008-12-17T21:55:00.001-08:00

When Bob the builder traded Craig Rivet to the San Jose Sharks for Josh Gorges and a 1st round pick, many were left scratching their heads. Why trade a veteran clubhouse leader and top-four dman for someone who was in and out of an inexperienced SJ blueline corps?

It turns out Bob saw more than most. Gorges in essence is Mike Komisarek without the bulk. Sure, he won't have as many thumping hits or intimidate many forwards -- the traits that most observers associate with Big K. But Gorges plays excellent defense, and makes smart, precise passes out of the defensive zone -- just like Big K.

It was no wonder that Carbo chose Gorges to pair up with Markov, who tends to wander into the offensive zone to create scoring chances. Gorges can be counted to not only stay at home, but to be exactly where he should be if the rush comes the other way.

And there may be no single greater measure of the success of this experiment than looking at Gorges' plus/minus: +12, enough to lead the team. And this after playing significant minutes, mostly against the opposition's top scorers. His TOI is now third on the team, and might even surpass Hamrlik's had he not been stuck on the third pairing for so long.

But now that Komisarek is coming back, what to do with Gorges? He's certainly too valuable to be relegated to the third pairing again. He will probably end up paired with Roman Hamrlik, except this time on his more natural left side. Hamrlik usually plays the left side, but has a pretty good backhand.

Brisebois will slide down to the third pairing, a more appropriate place for his limited defensive abilities. Limited not because of his skills, but simply because he gets pushed around far too easily. As the 6th dman, he can have limited 5-on-5 play, but get trotted out for the PP where his offensive skills can best be put to use.

Not that any of this will instantly cure the Habs' goal scoring woes. But great teams are built from the goalie out. The Habs have maybe the best goalie tandem in the league, and with the emergence of Gorges, a pretty solid blueline as well.

Manufacturing goals

2008-11-30T13:27:00.000-08:00

It's no secret that the Habs have been offensively dismal over the past month or so. What is puzzling is why. The same players that had much success last year and early this year(at least ES) have been struggling to find the back of the net.

The lack of a sustained forecheck is certainly part of the problem. Carbo used to have the boys dump the puck in the zone and use their speed to get possession, then cycle the puck around trying to create a scoring chance. The crispness and creativity of those passes were a wonder to behold.

But no longer. Instead, opponents have been able to gain possession on those dump ins, reducing the Habs into a neutral zone stacking and trapping team. As in Detroit, they sometimes won't even try to forecheck, and instead hope to create a turnover by stacking the neutral zone with five players. Boring and certainly not using their natural talent, but it can be effective.

In so doing, Carbo announced that his patience was wearing thin. Out went Laraque's intimidating but offensively incapable presence. In went everyone that might help manufacture a goal. No longer would talent and line chemistry be relied upon. Those had somehow vanished anyway.

Part of this effort was to reshuffle the lines, most notably to get some right handed shots on scoring lines. The Habs are stacked with left handed scoring forwards, the only exception being Lang. They are also deep with right handed fourth liners, the only exception being Begin.

Every year when shopping for off season pickups, Gainey signs mostly right handers in an effort to rebalance this mostly left handed team. This has been noted before -- the recent additions of Robert Lang, Georges Laraque, the resigning of Patrice Brisebois and the eager pursuit of Brendan Shanahan and Mats Sundin makes the same case. I fully believe that even Michael Ryder would be in bleu, blanc et rouge had the Bruins not given him crazy money.

But right handed scoring forwards aren't always easy to come by, as evidenced by Bob's success on the free agent and trade market. So Carbo has been reduced to playing Kostopolous on the third line and sometimes higher. The only other right handed winger on the team is Dandenault, and he's clearly suited for fourth line or 6th dman duties, if skating at all.

So when Tanguay and Komisarek went down, Bob called up Matt D'Agostini, a right hander with offensive flair. Carbo stuck him on the first line of all places. But the more significant lineup news was that he finally was able to put a right hander on every line: D'Agostini with Koivu and Higgins; Lang with Kovalev and Latendresse; Kostopolous with Begin and Plekanec; and Lapierre with the flying Kostitsyns.

Those combinations made it difficult to tell a fourth line from a first (at least before TOI made Carbo's intentions clear), and had some obvious flaws: D'Agostini is a raw rookie; Lang, Kovalev and Latendresse might be the three slowest skaters on the team; Kostopolous and Begin would surely weigh down Plekanec -- if his lack of scoring could get any worse; ditto for Lapierre with the Kostitsyns.

But those standard appraisals only work when the scoring forwards are actually scoring. With the goal drought, Carbo has pulled out all the stops. Nobody's roles are a given, and he will try to manufacture goals from the bench until les gars can snap themselves out of this funk. Then maybe Carbo might let his crew use their talent alone to score goals and go back to his odd October lineups of all lefties on the scoring lines and all righties on the fourth line.

And for a lesson in how to put together a lineup with almost perfect shooting balance, just look at the league leading SJ Sharks (3.75 goals per game). Here's a typical lineup:

Marleau (L) - Thornton (L) - Setoguchi (R)
Michalek (L) - Pavelski (R) - Clowe (R)
Grier (R) - Goc (L) - Cheechoo (R)
Shelley (L) - Roenick (R) - Plihal (L)

Blake (R) - Vlasic (L)
Boyle (R) - Lukowich (L)
Ehrhoff (L) - Murray (L)

Of course, it doesn't hurt that they're loaded with talent, blue line experience and speed.

A new business model

2008-05-30T11:35:00.000-07:00

An interesting, supposedly confidential internal NHL report was published by the Toronto Star recently. The report lists the Habs as second in the NHL in overall revenue. It doesn't list actual profit, but this one sentence stood out: "The six Canadian teams account for 31 per cent of the $1.1 billion (U.S.) in league ticket revenue, and have gone through league-leading double-digit increases over last season."

Granted, most of the revenue increases are due to the strength of the Canadian dollar -- assuming this report was accounting for inflation and using one currency (either US or Canadian) as a baseline for comparison. Also, this is overall revenue, not profit. Given the Canadian tax situation, which can differ widely by province, it is doubtful that Canadian teams are going to turn into the NY Rangers of free agent signings.

Still, the fact that Canadian teams are getting back on a more equal footing bodes well for the future. Especially so for the Habs, who have been building from within by drafting very well. One would hope that the improved revenue situation would enable the Habs to keep their talent after having nurtured their progress for so long -- assuming the salary cap will allow them to do so.

But perhaps more interesting was the note that the NHL derives almost half its revenue from ticket sales. The NFL, on the other hand, has billion-dollar, multi-year television contracts, and is expanding its prime time television viewing with Thursday and Saturday night games.

Such was the model Gary Bettman wanted to follow when he pushed expansion teams to such hockey hotbeds as Nashville, Columbus, Phoenix and the like. The logic was that better geographic coverage in the US would lead to a big national deal with one of the four American networks.

In some places, the strategy of building a hockey fan base where none existed did work. In San Jose, games are regularly sold out. Years ago, the Sharks had the longest sellout streak in the NHL, broken only on Oscar night. But that in itself was telling. Fans would rather watch the Oscars than the Sharks -- more or less because there wasn't much else to do in San Jose.

So now that Canadian franchises are doing so well, and the huge television contract dream has failed to materialize, talk is getting louder about moving one of the poor performing US franchises (like the Coyotes) back to Canada.

And perhaps along with that, a new business model for generating revenue is needed. Instead of relying on old models from other leagues that don't necessarily translate, why not embrace new models and new technologies, especially the internet. RDS, the Montreal-based television broadcaster that owns rights to all Habs games, recently began webcasting games, for a small fee.

For fans of such storied franchises as the Montreal Canadiens, this could have a huge impact -- especially for those fans who can't get RDS as readily as others. The financial impact could be huge as well, and the NHL would be wise to both encourage such endeavors as well as to guide them to benefit the league as a whole, especially financially.

Escaping the restrictions imposed by traditional broadcast television would only serve to further nurture the US market for hockey. Currently, many US viewers have to subscribe to insanely expensive cable and satellite packages to get the games they want to see. And that's only when the packages are even available. Center Ice, despite its advertising as carrying all NHL games, consistently drops games, especially in the playoffs -- even when Versus isn't carrying the game.

Unfortunately, due to broadcast licensing agreements between Canada and other countries, RDS webcasts are not available in the US and many other countries. The NHL would do well to lobby both Canadian and American governments to drop these restrictions, so that hockey fans can see their teams in action regardless of where they live.

Hope for the future

2008-05-02T13:06:00.000-07:00

Everybody wants to emulate a winner. Last year the Anaheim Ducks brutalized their way to the top. This year, some teams tried to do the same, most notably the Philadelphia Flyers. But some early (and very necessary) intervention by Colin Campbell seemed to have righted that ship, at least for the regular season.

Now its the playoffs, and the "sticky" play has returned (as noted ad nauseum in the last post). Occasionally though, there are breakthroughs, where the refs start calling the penalties as they should be. This was notably absent for much of the Bruins-Habs series, but the Habs managed to pull through.

For the Flyers series, the officiating has been better, but there has still been a lot of hooking and holding going on. Not egregious enough to pull down a player, but enough to eliminate space for the much more talented Habs.

Probably the best example is the supposed dominance of Biron. While he has played better than either Halak or Price (for the most part), he hasn't been unbeatable. He has always been prone to giving up juicy rebounds, and this series is no different. The difference is that the Habs can get to them. So much hooking, holding and general interference is happening in front of the net that they can't break free.

But Habs GM is still optimistic about the future. Most of the skilled teams have done well, esp the Red Wings and Penguins. The Sharks and Habs would also fall into that category, but are behind the 8-ball right now. Still, as pointed out over at Sisu Hockey, it might just all be bad luck. In almost every other statistical category, the Habs have outplayed the Flyers.

So while a 25th Stanley Cup championship would be the ultimate this year, a Red Wings-Penguins final would be a decent second best. Then instead of emulating the Ducks, maybe other teams will start playing catch up with the skill teams, and the NHL on-ice product would be that much more satisfying.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs: Gotta Hate It!

2008-04-15T16:27:00.000-07:00

Yes, that borders on the blasphemous, but that's the only conclusion Habs GM can come to after watching the first few games of this year's Stanley Cup playoffs. Teams with more ability to play quasi-Charlestown Chiefs style hockey are rewarded. Those with actual skill? Not so much.

Let me be clear: I do not object to hitting. It's a natural and necessary part of the sport. Even in womens hockey -- where checking is banned -- one still sees plenty of contact. And in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the hitting seems to reach a fever pitch. That's all well and good.

But the hitting must be legal. That means no pinning an opposing player against the ice or boards when the opposing player does not have the puck. Or hitting him at all. That's interference, plain and simple. If he does have the puck, then he better look out (esp if the Habs' Big K is on the ice). And if, when defending against an opponent with the puck, you take your free hand off the stick to wrap it around the opponent -- that's holding. Even if it was only for the briefest of moments. These are basic definitions of penalties that were well understood during the regular season.

And perhaps some will argue that the officials should just let the players play, lest the officials insert themselves into the outcome of the game. This argument never made much sense to me. The officials are there to enforce the rules. If someone breaks them, they get penalized. If they don't call the rules, the players are penalized anyway -- and usually the ones with the most skill. So not enforcing the rules changes the outcome too, and the officials are still center stage.

Part of the argument against the obstruction crackdown in the post-lockout NHL was that too many penalties detracted from the flow of the game. Games would be decided by special teams play, as 5-on-5 play would be few and far between. Indeed this was the case initially. But eventually players grew accustomed to the play, and penalties were called with less frequency. Coaches adjusted their game plans as well, emphasizing shot blocking since clutching and grabbing were now outlawed.

But somehow those lessons keep getting lost every time the playoffs roll around. Let's take a few examples from this year's early series:

The supremely skilled Plekanec line has been replaced in offensive effectiveness by the so-called "buzz cut boys": Begin-Smolinski-Kostopolous. The most recent example was the lone Habs goal in the 2-1 loss at Boston. Smolinski clearly interfered with the Bruins dman behind the goal line, allowing Kostopolous to break free in front and shove the puck under Thomas' pad.
Plekanec now likens his play to that of a "little girl" -- as if somehow he has to transform himself into one of the Hansen brothers? More telling is Carbo's reaction to Plekanec's assessment: "Most of the time, you have more room in the regular season, more time to make your plays. But playoff time is a little different. You have to put (aside) a little of the skills and use more grit." Put aside skill??? One would think that the playoffs is when true skill is elevated, not to mention rewarded.
In the West, probably the best example of skill vs thugs are the Sharks vs the Flames. In game 3, the Sharks opened the game with 3 goals in less than 4 minutes. Then the Flames turned up the hits, most savagely exemplified by Cory Sarich's head crushing hit on captain Patrick Marleau 12 minutes into the first. Seemingly everyone but the refs thought it was a penalty. Sarich even started heading toward the penalty box, escorted by a linesman. But no penalty was called, and the Sharks went on to allow 4 straight goals by the Flames.

Maybe this is so disappointing this year because of how beautifully the Habs played this year. At times their 5-on-5 play resembled a power play, keeping the puck away from the opposition with such skill as to inspire awe from even the most jaded of viewers. Or maybe its the unfulfilled promise of the "new-NHL" which has managed to at least partly open up the ice for skilled players in the regular season, only to once again disappoint us in the playoffs.

Does every team have to turn into the thuggish Anaheim Ducks to smashmouth their way to the Cup? I sincerely hope not.

Go Caps Go?

2008-03-19T22:02:00.000-07:00

A GM should maintain some semblance of objectivity towards players. They are, after all, employees, contracted to perform a service for some specific length of time, for a set fee.

But it's a little hard to maintain that objectivity when it comes to Cristobal Huet. He was, after all, the man who almost single handedly saved the team when it went into its Jose Theodore-induced freefall through the standings.

He came in as a virtual afterthought in the trade for Mathieu Garon, right after the 2003-04 season. Garon was the Habs backup netminder at the time, but only after Theo had seemingly laid claim to his status a the #1. Garon was thus deemed expendable, and was traded to the LA Kings for Radek Bonk, a largely disappointing centerman. Cristobal Huet was thrown in, as the Habs had no other backup goaltender with NHL experience.

With the lockout the next season, Huet didn't get a chance to play for the Habs until 2005-06, the same year when Theo fell apart. Habs coach Claude Julien took to playing Huet more and more often, until GM Bob Gainey decided that his team had to go with his anointed #1 -- and fired Julien.

It was midway through the 2005-06 season that Gainey realized Julien was right. Gainey had stepped behind the bench, and could see first hand what Julien experienced. Not only was Theo that bad, but Huet was that good. Huet saved the season for the Habs and took them to the playoffs, where they lost to the Hurricanes -- but only after some liberties were taken with Huet by the 'Canes forwards and Saku Koivu was lost to an eye injury that threatened to end his career.

So it wasn't by accident that the Washington Capitals were left off the list of potential first round matchups for the Habs this postseason (see previous post). It would simply be too awkward to be cheering against the man who showed many Habs players, press and fans what it means to be a professional athlete.

The postseason

2008-03-18T10:52:00.001-07:00

The Habs are in optimal position for the postseason. Leading the Northeast places them second in the conference, which today would lead to a first round matchup with the Boston Bruins. Of course much could change in the next month. The Habs could get overtaken by the Senators, dropping them (probably) to fifth, behind the three conference leaders and the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Bruins also could get overtaken by a number of teams behind them, notably the Flyers, Panthers or Sabres. Or they could drop out of playoff contention altogether.

But here's hoping that the status quo stays. Here's their record versus the Bruins and other possible first round matchups, with average goals for and against

Teams	Record	GF	GA
Bruins	6-0	5.3	2
Penguins	2-2	2.75	3
Flyers	4-0	3.75	1.5
Sabres	3-3	2.5	2.5
Panthers	2-2	2.5	2
Senators	1-5	1.83	3.83
Hurricanes	1-3	3	3.5
Devils	2-2	2.5	2
Rangers	1-3	3.25	4.5

Of course, these are all regular season stats. The playoffs are completely different, where defense and rugged play win games. Just ask the Anaheim Ducks. The Habs have been getting by on their offense, ranking 2nd in the league in scoring but 13th in goals against. The latter has to improve if they want to go far this postseason.

The aftermath

2008-03-15T02:54:00.000-07:00

The trade deadline came and went, and the Habs shocked many by appearing to be selling rather than buying. Trading your #1 goaltender might lend itself to such an interpretation.

But of course there's much more to it than that. Cristobal Huet is an unrestricted free agent his upcoming offseason, and unless Carey Price showed he was incapable of taking on the #1 duties next season, Huet would not be re-signed. So why let him get away for nothing?

However, it seems like Gainey got almost just that in return: a second round draft pick ... in 2009.

So it's not really about Huet's impending departure either. It's more about the future, and it's imminent arrival.

Gainey apparently was intent on landing Marian Hossa, at least to close out this season. But he was not willing to give up any of his highly touted prospects in return. Instead, he has chosen to go to battle with this team of mostly unproven youngsters.

And none more so than Carey Price. Gainey has laid the burden of being #1 squarely on his shoulders. Certainly a tall order for a 20 year old, who had yet to put in a full year in the AHL, and spent some time there this year as well. (BTW, Price isn't the first Habs rookie goaltender to be sent down to the minors to work on his form, esp to stand up more. Patrick Roy did the same).

But it's also up to the Kostitsyn brothers, Higgins, Plekanec, Komisarek, O'Byrne and the like -- the young core of this team that Gainey refused to trade. By not trading them, Gainey has signaled his confidence in them. Passing the torch, as it were.

This is a team whose rebuilding is almost over (more on that later). Why would Gainey rent a player like Hossa, when this is a team that can go all the way. Maybe not this year, but conceivably in the near future.

And Hossa almost certainly would have been a rental. The Habs are significantly under the cap this season, and presumably next season's cap would be even higher. But let's say that Gainey was able to get Hossa without trading any of his existing players. He might be able to sign Hossa and his upcoming free agents, given what Hossa supposedly wanted ($7M+ per year).

But why would he do that, and risk the carefully constructed salary balance to date? Kovalev and Koivu are his highest paid forwards, with Koivu earning only $.25M more than Kovy per year. And over the same span too. On D, Markov and Hamrlik are the highest paid, with the same differential as Kovy and Koivu. Gainey isn't going to bring in anyone to earn much more than any of them, the veteran leaders of this club. Not without risking egos and the careful chemistry that shows the resilience to come back to win from a 5-0 deficit.

So don't expect Hossa in the tricolore next year either. Gainey has himself a team. A cohesive unit that can win games now, and for the foreseeable future.

Buyers and Sellers

2008-02-25T21:03:00.000-08:00

Ah, the annual trade deadline. Time to separate the contenders from rebuilders. Last year, the Habs were caught in between. Trade upcoming UFA Sheldon Souray for some prospects and/or draft picks, and essentially give up hope of making the playoffs that year? Or go for it, and keep Souray for the rest of the season in an attempt to make the playoffs, knowing that he almost certainly would leave with his huge goal-scoring slapshot for bigger money elsewhere in the offseason?

Well, Gainey gambled and lost. He kept Souray, but the Habs still didn't make the playoffs, losing in the last game to the Leafs (who scored the winner with 7 skaters on the ice). Who could blame him? There are a number of teams this year who are also on the bubble, not knowing if they are buyers or sellers.

This year there is no such drama in what the Habs will do. They are undoubtedly contenders. And they undoubtedly need help, up front on one of the scoring lines. Carbo has tried all year to throw out three scoring lines, and one energy line. Of course, it didn't help that he constantly benched his only right-handed scoring threat (Ryder) and juggled every line but Plekanec's.

Still, the Habs can only field 7 1/2 legitimate scoring line forwards: Koivu, Kovalev, Higgins, Plekanec, the Kostitsyn brothers, Ryder and sometimes Streit. (Latendresse could be a scoring line forward, but hasn't shown the consistency.) The rest of their forwards are really fourth liners, in terms of the "energy" that Carbo likes to see coming from his fourth line forwards. These would be Kostopolous, Begin, Lapierre and Dandenault. Of course that leaves out Smolinski, who hasn't been much use anywhere.

So the Habs have more fourth liners than they need, and not enough scoring line forwards. The obvious hole is the center position on the third line. So that would be an obvious place to pick up some help.

But another possibility would be to move one of the other forwards to center that line and replace him in the lineup. The most likely player under this scenario would be Higgins, who broke in with the Habs as a center. And the best possibility to replace him would actually be a right winger, not the left wing he would vacate, as Ryder, Kostopolous, and Kovalev are the only natural right wingers on the team.

And who would Gainey give up to land either such player? Given that the sellers typically are looking for long term help, Gainey would be pressed to give up some of his outstanding prospects. And since the Habs have depth at both defense and between the pipes, expect someone like Halak, Danis, O'Byrne, Valetenko and the like to be involved. So none of the existing scoring line forwards would be moved, including Ryder, Koivu or Higgins (among those that have been involved in recent rumors).

And who are the sellers? Those that have almost no shot at the playoffs this year, and need to restock for the future, with prospects and/or draft picks. These teams are Los Angeles, Edmonton, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Atlanta. The Thrashers are the most interesting, as they could be a contender, but Marian Hossa -- a UFA at the end of the year -- has made it clear he won't resign with Atlanta.

Hossa, a big time scoring right wing, would fit beautifully with the Habs. Gainey has said that he only wants to trade for a gamebreaker, and Hossa certainly fits the bill. Atlanta also needs blue line help, so they'd be taking a hard look at the Hamilton roster. Indeed Atlanta GM Don Waddell was spotted at a recent Bulldogs game.

Others who might draw interest:

Atlanta's Bobby Holik, a potential UFA after this season. A big right handed center, he'd be perfect as the Habs third centerman. He brings the right kind of nasty to the playoff mix, and ranks first in the NHL among players with at least 800 faceoffs. He might actually be a better fit than Hossa.
From the Kings, the main trade pieces are on D, esp Rob Blake, Oleg Tverdosky and Brad Stuart -- not where the Habs need help. But the Kings desperately need a goalie. Unless they're willing to part with Alexander Frolov or Anze Kopitar (highly unlikely) don't expect a trade with the Kings.
The Leafs' main attraction would have been Mats Sundin, but he won't drop his no trade clause. They also have Kaberle and McCabe, but the Habs don't need blueline help.
The Bolts have the big three, of whom probably only Brad Richards will be traded. LeCavalier and St. Louis have more affordable contracts, so some money will no doubt be involved in a Richards trade. He'd be a great third center for the Habs, but will Gainey blow his carefully constructed contract structure on a guy who makes almost double what either Koivu or Kovalev make?
Chicago has Martin Havlat and Robert Lang, but both were just signed as UFA's this season. They most likely will try to move Nikolai Khabibulin, assuming someone wants to take his fat contract and underachieving ways. Needless to say, the Habs don't need a goalie.
The Oilers are a bit like the Kings. Deep on young talent up front, with veterans in back. Only they have a goalie. So they may just stand pat (more or less) come the deadline.

Who needs UFA's anyway?

2008-02-22T11:12:00.000-08:00

As mentioned in the last post, the Habs' season high 3 game losing streak coincided more or less with the absence of Roman Hamrlik.

But now that both Hamrlik and O'Byrne are back, Carbo has a different problem: where to play all his dmen. If you include Streit and Dandenault, the Habs have 9 blueliners on their active roster. Of course, Dandy has played right wing all season, but not very successfully. He's a team worst -12.

But it's Carbo's healthy scratches from two of the past three games that are most interesting: Smolinski, Kostopolous and Brisebois. Kostopolous and Smolinski were supposed to replace Mike Johnson and Radek Bonk in the lineup, and were paid more together than both Johnson and Bonk ultimately received from St. Louis and Nashville respectively. Brisebois provided veteran blueline insurance, presumably until O'Byrne was ready to come up.

The most interesting part is that all were UFA signings this year. And yet all are sitting in the press box, and for good reason. Smolinski was centering the fourth line, more or less until Begin got back. Smolinski replaced Begin in the last game against the Penguins, coincidentally the same time the Habs 4 game win streak was snapped. Presumably Smolinski played because of Begin's atrocious faceoff percentage this year (28.8%). But Begin's pitbull style of forechecking is sorely needed by the Habs. Maybe only Komisarek and Bouillon hit as frequently and ferociously, and that's only in the defensive end.

Brisebois was out as soon as Hamrlik came back. But his real replacement was O'Byrne, who can really skate well for a big man. And, of course, he hits. Hard. This gives Carbo some real physical presence on each of his blueline combinations.

Kostopolous is the hardest to figure out why he is sitting. One could argue that Ryder has taken his spot on the right wing, but Ryder never deserved to be benched. Kostopolous' real replacement is Dandenault, who has more points (12 to K's 9) but a worse +/- (-12 to K's -8). Carbo has Dandy playing on a line with Latendresse centered by Begin or Smolinski, the most likely line where Kostopolous would play.

In a Theory of Ice post from last season, e recounted a conversation with an old-time Habs fan who more or less said that the Habs don't buy UFA's. They grow their own talent the old-fashioned way. There certainly is an appeal to that, as we can follow their progress from fresh-faced draftee to uncertain rookie to veteran playmaker. And the Habs' surprising showing this year is in no small part due to the play of their youngsters, players who have been drafted and groomed by Habs GM's.

But the UFA's? Apart from the very big exception of Roman Hamrlik (and his very big contract), they haven't contributed much at all.

Now that's not to say that the Habs can continue going to the well for all their roster needs. No doubt they are deep on the blue line (O'Byrne, Valentenko, Emelin) and between the pipes (Price, Halak, Danis). But if they want to move forward, they need some help on the scoring end, especially to help Carbo fully realize his strategy of throwing out three full fledged scoring lines. And with the upcoming trade deadline, look for Gainey to move one or more of the above mentioned assets for a high end scoring threat -- more on this in the next post.

UFA MVP?

2008-02-20T10:23:00.000-08:00

The Habs recent success (season high 4 game win streak) probably has much to do with the team's depth and health. This win streak follows a season high 3 game losing streak, one in which their frequent defensive lapses showed how much they missed Roman Hamrlik. He has settled in nicely as the #3 blueliner, and has showed his versatility in pairing up with veteran playmakers Patrice Brisebois (playing on the right) and Mark Streit (playing on the left), as well as the young rookie Ryan O'Byrne.

Hamrlik was gone not because of injury but because of some strange flu-like illness that also left him with an undiagnosed rash (TMI?). Last season, a flu bug spread through the clubhouse, contributing greatly to the Habs' midseason slide. So despite Hamrlik's value, he was quarantined from the rest of the team until he got better.

And not a moment too soon. Even though he is not the club's best dman (that honor would go to Markov or maybe even Komisarek), his replacement -- Patrice Brisebois -- was not up to the task. Brisebois slide into Hamrlik's spot, and promptly showed why he was run out of town a few years ago.

With O'Byrne still on the mend with his broken hand, Carbo didn't have much choice. So he tried juggling his defensive combinations, much like he often juggles his forwards. As the best defensive dman, Komisarek ended up double shifting a lot. That didn't seem to work well: in the Habs' 6-1 shellacking by Ottawa, Komisarek was -3. When was the last time that has ever happened?

So Hamrlik goes and the Habs lose 3 in row. He returns and they've now won 4 in a row. Does this mean that Hamrlik is the team MVP? Hardly. But he does fill a valuable role on the team, being the shutdown dman on the second pairing. And while playing with O'Byrne, he plays a similar mentoring role as in Calgary with Dion Phaneuf. I would think that Carbo would also have a difficult time replacing Bouillon, Markov or Komisarek should any of them be unavailable.

But it does mean that Hamrlik's signing was well worth the big money paid to him -- second highest on the team, only behind Andrei Markov. His stats bear it out too: among full time dmen, only second to Markov in points and only second to Komisarek in plus/minus.

Most interestingly, the Habs' recent streaks also prove that maybe they don't need UFA's. Beyond Hamrlik anyway. This post has gone on too long already, so let's take that up next time.

Carbo's straw man

2008-01-16T10:09:00.000-08:00

Almost all season long, Michael Ryder has been on Carbo's (and many a Habs' fan's) shit list. He was out of the lineup as a healthy scratch for five games. Only since after Christmas has he started playing again.

No doubt part of this antipathy is the increased expectations raised by his hefty contract signed over the off season. A 30 goal scorer each of the past two seasons, his coaches and fans expected more production this season, not less.

But Habs GM sees it differently. Quite simply, Ryder is not a first line winger. In that sense, almost $3M for the 1 year was probably too much. But is that Ryder's fault? Or his agent's? Maybe both -- who knows how these contract negotiations unfold. One wonders if the only reason he was signed for 1 year was that Gainey was unwilling to pay him first line winger money for any extended period of time, and that he had 1 year to prove to the team that he was.

Ryder has always been a streaky scorer. Last year, he virtually disappeared during the latter part of the season, only to re-emerge with a burst of goals right before the end of the season.

He also was a 8th round draft pick (216th overall) 10 years ago. So in a sense, he has already gone beyond expectations.

But most unfair is his treatment by Carbo. Carbo knows that his team has three sparkplugs, at least offensively: Koivu, Kovalev and Higgins. He probably realized this from the beginning of the season, giving Kovy and Higgins the alternate captain slots vacated by Souray and Rivet.

But it was only recently that he truly capitalized on this and split up the three. Now all three drive their respective lines (except for the last game in Atlanta, which Habs GM prays was just a one game aberration due to the matchup difficulties with Atlanta's top two lines). All three also play significant minutes on the PP and PK too.

Every other forward are secondary to these three, including Ryder. And that also includes Latendresse, the Kostitsyn brothers and Plekanec. But until those three were split up, Ryder was the fall guy. It was his fault that the Habs weren't doing better (although Latendresse got a heaping pile of blame too).

To be sure, all have benefited from these new pairings. And it is simply because other teams find matchups difficult. Of course, it does help that Bob brought back Lapierre and the younger Kostitsyn too. None of these three lines would have worked very well with Grabovski, Begin, Smolinski or one of the other early season regulars.

But even as successful as these lines have been, Carbo hasn't fully gotten off the "Blame Ryder" wagon. Higgins' line is often used as a two-way line, as Lapierre has decent faceoff and defensive skills. So Ryder is often skating against the oppositions' top lines. This is naturally going to make scoring more difficult.

In fact, Ryder has been matched up against other teams' toughest lines all season long. According to the voluminous stats compiled at BehindTheNet, only Smolinski has had tougher "quality of competition" among Habs' forwards. But Smolinski, in fewer games, has racked up a -6 plus/minus, whereas Ryder has maintained a more respectable -3.

Carbo has also not used him much on the PP. Here are Ryder's PP time-on-ice stats from the last 5 games

vs. Atlanta Thrashers: : 9 seconds
vs. New York Islanders: 0 minutes
vs. New York Rangers: 2 minutes, 15 seconds
vs. Boston Bruins: 1 minute, 15 seconds
vs. Chicago Blackhawks: 0 minutes

That's an average of about 44 seconds per game. If Carbo were really interested in getting Ryder back on track, why not get him more minutes in the NHL's #1 PP? He'd be esp effective as the LW on the first unit (essentially to improve the shooting angle from the left side), with the left handed Kovalev playing on the right.

Does Carbo want Ryder to fail? Maybe he doesn't like Newfies. Who knows. But since coming back Ryder has tallied 4 goals and 2 assists in 10 games, translating to 33 goals and 16 assists projected over an entire season. Not bad for a guy who seems to draw the toughest assignments night in and night out.

Brisebois for Brown

2008-01-07T21:33:00.000-08:00

The last post argued why the Habs should swing a trade for the Sharks' seldom-used Curtis Brown.

But who among the Habs would the Sharks want in return? From our vantage point, the Sharks are most in need of a backup goaltender with NHL experience and an offensive dman, preferably right handed. Turns out the Habs are well stocked with both: Yann Danis or Jaroslav Halak for the former, or Patrice Brisebois for the latter.

The low risk route for the Sharks is to get a backup goaltender. So far this year, Nabokov has played every game. Although he has done well, one wonders how long that can last. Martin Brodeur once played 78 games, and then into the playoffs. But that's Martin Brodeur. Nabokov doesn't have an ironman reputation.

Not having a proven backup is (usually) asking for trouble, but Sharks GM Doug Wilson traded the reliable Vesa Toskala to the Leafs before this season. Part of that was to unload Mark Bell, but most Sharks fans were left scratching their heads as to who would back up Nabokov for his days off and if injury were to occur.

The Habs could afford to part with either Danis or Halak at this point. The conventional thinking was that Huet would be allowed to walk next year and Price would be the #1. Halak or Danis would back up Price, with the other as a #3 should injury befall Price. But Price hasn't played all that well, certainly not enough to supplant Huet. Habs GM wouldn't be surprised if Bob were to send Price to the minors this season, and start the paperwork for re-signing Huet. If that were to happen, both Halak and Danis would still be plying their trade for the Bulldogs next season -- not an ideal situation for either.

But for all that, Habs GM thinks that Wilson would rather have Brisebois in exchange for Brown. The Sharks need someone like Brisebois to help their woeful offense and PP. For all his defensive deficiencies, Brisebois is fairly effective at moving the puck in the transition game -- crucial in today's NHL. Those same skills make him a good PP QB option.

The Sharks play exceptionally good defense, so Brisebois' adventures in his own zone would not hurt as much. The Sharks lead the league in GAA, doing so with a remarkably young defensive corps. They are also #2 on the PK. If there is one weakness, it is that they are all lefties, except for Craig Rivet. Balance on the blueline is essential.

Perhaps this is the reason the Sharks have not had more production from their blueline. Clearly, all their dmen are defensively responsible, and Nabokov is displaying All Star form. Brisebois would help on the offensive end, when healthy and when paired with a stay-at-home dman like Kyle McLaren.

And, as noted in the last post, the Sharks just need more goals in general. A better transition game would go a long way toward achieving this. Their 23rd ranked PP could also use the help.

No trade proposal is complete without a salary cap analysis. And this is the icing on the cake: Brown, Brisebois and Danis all make $700k per year, and all will be UFA's at the end of this season. Halak makes only $500k, so other considerations may have to be thrown in to make that deal balance out.

Downtown Curtis Brown

2008-01-05T22:07:00.000-08:00

Carbo continues to show confidence in both his fourth line and his third defensive pairing. But that confidence hasn't been rewarded with exemplary play. Let's look at the last three games:

Carbo had all five on the ice against the Rangers' Straka-Gomez-Jagr line (with disastrous consequences, as noted in the last post).
He did it again against the Lightning's St. Louis-Prospal-Lecavalier line. This time the goal was almost entirely due to Bouillon and Gorges: an absolutely terrible exchange between the two in front of the Habs net, while the Lightning's entire top line was hovering around trying to create a turnover. No need. Gorges did it almost single-handedly.
And against the Capitals, Carbo had Chipchura and Kostopolous as his #1 PK unit. On the Caps PP goal, Chipchura loses the draw, Nylander pulls the puck back to Ovechkin, who rips it past the helpless Price.

Now while Carbo can be taken to task for being overconfident in Chipchura, Dandenault, Kostopolous, Gorges and Bouillon, one could argue that he doesn't have much choice given his personnel. Indeed that was where we left things last time.

As noted in the last post, Carbo has struck upon a set of line combinations that on the one hand takes advantage of the roster's offensive talents but has also woefully exposed their defensive liabilities. This post is dedicated to a proposition that would rectify that situation: swing a trade with the San Jose Sharks for Curtis Brown.

Brown would be the missing link to Carbo's latest plan, allowing him to keep the first three lines intact, while gaining a much more effective fourth line -- one that would both excel as an "energy" line as well as having some defensive chops. Brown could probably center a line between Begin on the left and Kostopolous on the right.

Brown has always been a great faceoff guy, and a very good defensive forward as well. He's not the energy type of player one would normally see on a fourth line, but with him at center, Carbo would have an alternative to Koivu's or Lapierre's line for defensive zone draws. With his addition, the only truly defensively less-than-adequate line would be Plekanec's. If Carbo did get stuck with his 4th line out against Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson or the like, we all wouldn't have to wait for the inevitable red light to start flashing behind Huet's head. Brown's skills could also help the Habs' woeful PK, mired near the bottom of the league for most of the season.

Interestingly, Brown's strengths are exactly why the Sharks haven't used him much this year. They need goals, not defense. They are second in the league in goals allowed per game, but a shocking 22nd in goals scored per game (with Marleau, Cheechoo, Thornton and company??). They are also #1 in faceoff efficiency -- all without using Brown's skills in the faceoff circle.

And how exactly does this rectify the Habs' 3rd defensive pairings liabilities? There are already a number of guys, beyond Kostopolous and Begin who were vying for 4th line minutes. Smolinski, Chipchura, Dandenault and Streit specifically. Adding Brown further crowds the mix, no?

So Streit and Dandenault should move back to the blueline. Streit is an easy argument. He's extremely valuable as the #1 powerplay QB on the NHL's #1 powerplay. Find him some minutes, anywhere. Dandenault? Well, he was passable as a 6th dman last year. He was certainly better than Gorges or O'Byrne have been this year. And probably no worse defensively than Brisebois, though nowhere near as efficient on offense.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Dandenault. In fact, it might be better to keep Brisebois as the #6 dman, where his defensive liabilities would be minimized and his offensive skills used on the PP as the 2nd QB. But Brisebois is the guy the Sharks will want. This post is already way too long, so wait for the next posting to find out why.

All O, No D

2007-12-31T17:27:00.000-08:00

Carbo's latest tinkerings with line combinations have at once taken advantage of the Habs' strengths, while laid bare their most glaring weakness. The lines go something like this:

Kostitsyn-Koivu-Latendresse
Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Ryder
Streit-Kostopolous-Dandenault

There are so many oddities about these lines:

Michael Ryder is playing again, after a few games as a healthy scratch. Ryder's situation deserves a post unto itself, so more on that later.
The fourth line has no real center and two defensemen on the wings.
All lefties on the "first" two lines, and only two on the "last" two.
Three scoring lines, and one energy line.

As odd as these combinations are, they are a small bit of genius given the Habs' dearth of anyone resembling a defensive forward. Carbo split up the three catalysts for the Habs' offense: Higgins, Koivu and Kovalev. With each driving their respective lines, other coaches can't figure out against whom to send their better units. Carbo also sends all lines on the forecheck constantly, except in the third period when they fall back into a trap-like defensive shell with a four or five goal lead.

And that is exactly when this bold plan's soft underbelly is exposed. None of these guys are bona fide shut down forwards. The plan's success in the early going is based on keeping the puck in the offensive zone, and creating pressure with a constant forecheck. With the game safely in hand after two periods, Carbo figures he can just play defense, and ride out the last 20 minutes. But while these lines excel at being the aggressor, they aren't so good at playing D. The result, over the three games these lines have been in effect? Outscoring the opposition 10-2 in the first two periods vs being outscored 5-3 in the last (including OT).

So why not just play the third period just like the first two? Carbo would appear to be trying to run up the score, a big no-no esp given the Habs' lack of an enforcer. So Carbo has to hope that the big early game leads will continue, and that his team (and esp his goalies) can hold on in the third.

Granted, the last game against the Rangers is a little atypical, and maybe one could argue that shouldn't be counted against this plan. After all, the Habs could only dress 19 players -- Corey Locke had an equipment bag snafu at Toronto's Pearson airport. The baggage guys there must be Leafs fans. But his absence didn't hurt as much as the guy he was supposed to replace: Saku Koivu, out with the flu. (Deja vu. Haven't the Habs' medical staff heard of flu shots?) .

Koivu is the Habs' best faceoff guy, for three years running now. The Rangers ruthlessly exposed the Habs' weakness in the faceoff circle, winning 68% of the draws. The most costly, of course, was Drury's win late in the third to tie the game. Lapierre's return has helped, but with Plekanec consistently losing more than he wins, the Habs desperately need someone to center that fourth line with a better faceoff percentage, esp take some defensive zone draws.

In the first two games (against the Lightning and Panthers) Carbo turned to Kostopolous, a winger who has lost about two draws for every win over the last three seasons. That's a pretty damning lack of confidence in Chipchura, who was a healthy scratch in both games.

But against the Rangers, without Koivu, Carbo had no choice but to play Chipchura. He was woefully not up to the job. His line was on the ice the for the first two goals, all ending up at -2. Of course it didn't help that Tom Renney recognized the mismatch and sent Straka-Gomez-Jagr out each time. On the first goal, Renney even caught Carbo with Chipchura's line as well as the third defensive unit, Bouillon and Gorges. Might as well have given them the goal and not bother with the formalities.

But there's not a whole lot Carbo can do about his fourth line, even when his guys are healthy. Bob needs to get him some help, esp to center that fourth line. And that is the subject of my next post.

Young blood

2007-12-07T13:19:00.000-08:00

So Bob has finally listened to the masses and brought back Max. Not sure what took him so long, although some have suggested that Lapierre was only sent down to learn how to play right wing.

In any case, Max is back. Hardly the cure to all that ails the Habs these days, but certainly a step in the right direction. Grabovski was also sent down to make room, so maybe Bob does realize that the Habs need help on D, not O.

But in a surprise move, Bob also brought up Ryan O'Byrne. Many were upset that Bob signed Patrice Brisebois instead of keeping O'Byrne on the roster. Although I was a bit surpised (shocked?) myself, I thought it made a certain amount of sense. Both Brisebois and O'Byrne could play the right side, but Brisebois is the sort of puck-moving dman the Habs need, esp on the PP. Streit would be the #1 PP QB, but a #2 is always good.

If Brisebois could keep his defensive gaffes to a minimum, then it'd be a pretty good pickup, for a very minimal cap hit. And he certainly played that way early on. But then, as the team started it's recent slide, Brisebois reverted to his prior self. Not continuously, on every shift. But, man, were there some bad plays on his part.

But I assume that O'Byrne's promotion was not just about Brisebois' failures. Blueliners take time to mature, and another stint in the AHL could only help, one would think. As one of the leading dmen on the Bulldogs, O'Byrne has showed that he was ready. And with Hamrlik's expertise at bringing along youngsters, O'Byrne could be a perfect fit just when the Habs needed him.

Again, neither Lapierre nor O'Byrne will be the savior Habs fans have been looking for. But it certainly is a step in the right direction. The next step? For Carbo to realize that defense wins games, and that he needs to put together two decent checking lines. Sure, Bob has hamstrung him by not signing decent replacements for Bonk and Johnson (much less re-signing Bonk and Johnson themselves). But Carbo's got to play the cards he's been dealt, and stop blaming Ryder for all the team's ailments.

I'm thinking maybe two checking lines, looking something like this:
Chipchura-Smolinski-Kostopolous
Begin-Lapierre-Dandenault

Offense ain't the problem. It's D. Good defense -- including a good transition game -- is going to win games.

Bring back Max, part III

2007-11-28T11:11:00.000-08:00

There's been some interesting talk around the Habs recently, most curiously stated by Guy Lafleur, my childhood idol. He said that the Habs roll out four fourth lines. Now, that's a wee bit exaggerated. I don't think Koivu, Kovalev, Plekanec or Higgins belong on a fourth or even third line. But on a team with the talent of, say, the Senators, they'd be doing a lot of second line work.

There was also some discussion over at the Theory of Ice along the same lines. For those of you not familiar, the Theory is the pre-eminent Habs blog out there today. Interestingly enough, Jeff (the author of the equally good, but now retired Sisu Hockey), commented at length about what he saw as some warning signs.

To sum up, he pointed out that Smolinski's line was Carbo's first choice for lining up against the opposition's top line. Koivu's line was second. So this explains to a large degree why Plekanec's line has been feasting, while Koivu's not so much.

Gainey and Carbo don't have many options. Like Jeff said (and Lafleur exaggerated), we don't have many legitimate checking line forwards. Begin and Kostopolous tend to be agitator types. Chipchura, Latendresse and Grabovski are all young, and need to learn the nuances of defense and other player's tendencies. Smolinski is a crafty, but not getting any younger veteran. Dandenault is trying to re-learn his forward position.

On talented teams, the above seven would be fourth liners. It's hard to admit it, but it's true. But this is the hand we've been dealt (although I still don't understand why we didn't keep Radek Bonk and Mike Johnson). So how to go forward?

I've complained about the Habs inability to keep the lead. On the most recent Theory posting, e posts some interesting stats about late game leads. And given Jeff's point about Koivu's line playing as a second checking line, I wonder if what we really need is a solid, second checking line option.

This would free up Koivu's line to play against third and fourth liners. Well, at home anyway. On the road, we wouldn't have the last change, so it wouldn't work as well. But it should still help I think, esp on line changing during the play.

We don't have a lot of options, given the player personnel listed above. But of those, the weakest links on defense are clearly Latendresse and Grabovski. So I say (again) bring back Max. He proved last year that he's got some defensive chops. And if he can't shut down an opposing forward, he can sure get under their skin (see every game vs Crosby) and provoke them to take a bad penalty or two. And since Murray has been gone, there's been a roster spot open.

I'd see those two checking lines going something like this:
Begin-Smolinksi-Dandenault
Chipchura-Lapierre-Kostopolous

Carbo might even be tempted to switch Smolinski and Lapierre, if only to keep some veteran/rookie balance. Plus, you'd get an all French Canadian line. Tabarnac!

Uh...

2007-11-22T12:26:00.000-08:00

Somehow Habs GM seem to have missed what should have been big news: Ilya Bryzgalov placed on waivers by the Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks, and subsequently picked up by the goalie starved and division rival Phoenix Coyotes.

This was a real stunner to me. It's well known that the Ducks were stacked with talent between the pipes. I think the Ducks could have won the Cup with either Bryzgalov or Giguere last year. In fact, Bryzgalov played the early rounds until Giguere was ready to come back.

I can understand not wanting to keep him, maybe for salary cap reasons. But why not trade him? Placing a player of his caliber on waivers almost guarantees someone will pick him up, and you get nothing in return -- except the salary cap space.

And Brian Burke had to have known that Phoenix would be licking their chops (like a rabid coyote?) if they had the chance to grab Bryzgalov. After all, this is the same team that signed David Aebischer to a free-agent contract. I feel bad for Abby and how he imploded last year, but man, that's desperate.

And what has Bryzgalov done since landing in the Valley of the Sun? He's won every one of this three starts, after the Coyotes got shut out by the Sharks back-to-back. It's only three games, but he's got a 1.30 GAA and .952 save percentage -- including a shootout win over his former team last night. That's gotta hurt.

What would Habs GM have done? Try to swing a deal to an Eastern Conference team. The East teams most in need of goaltending help would be the Leafs, Thrashers or Lightning. Maybe Burke would have gotten only a draft pick or two out of the deal. But at least it would be something. And then he'd only have face his former goaltender once every other year, instead of potentially 8 times or more with the Coyotes.

And I thought Burke was a genius for putting together that Pronger trade. Maybe Stanley Cup hangovers affect GM's too.

Ryder about to bust loose?

2007-11-06T21:34:00.000-08:00

There has been some talk on various Habs related sites about Michael Ryder. Some of the glass-half-empty crowd seem to ignore the Habs' hot start, almost 1/5 of the way through the season. Some question why Ryder should be on the first line, or even call for trading him altogether.

While he is prone to some outright silly plays, he is still the lone, legitimate sniper the Habs currently employ. When he forgets that, he tends to go into his prolonged slumps. But when he awakens, we see why he has led the Habs in goals scored the past two seasons.

The last game against Buffalo was illustrative of these two sides of Michael Ryder. On the downside, he seems to sometimes think he's the second coming of Alex Kovalev, trying to deke and fake out opponents while carrying the puck into the zone. Or he thinks he has Tomas Plekanec's speed, trying to blow past defenders on the right side. He is neither, and he should leave the puck carrying to Saku and the speed demon bit to Higgins.

But there were also a couple of instances in last night's game that made me think Ryder is starting to work again, trying to do the little things to get back on his game:

In the second period, he laid out Derek Roy with a mid-ice, shoulder check. At first, I thought that must have been Steve Begin. But no, it was #73.
On the first goal, he hustled back to the defensive zone to help cover for Andrei Markov -- and for Saku and Higgins, both of whom went to the bench. Markov, knowing he was covered defensively, was able to pick off the Buffalo entry pass. He fed it to Kostitsyn, who gave a nice feed to Plekanec for the game winner. All of this starts with Ryder hustling back on D.

So those are the little signs that Carbo must be pleased with. Enough to let Ryder stay on the top line, but probably not enough to quiet the vociferous few calling for a trade.

Keeping an Even Keel

2007-10-29T11:07:00.000-07:00

I think the title of this post is some sort of sailing term, whereby a sailboat is kept from rocking to and fro by a steady hand upon the keel. Whatever that is.

A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.

To be sure, it certainly does look good:

#1 power play in the land
#5 in the Hab-hating TSN power ranking
Points all around, sprinkled like fairy dust upon checking line forward and highly paid sniper alike.
Plekanec and Kovalev making beautiful plays, instead of one mystifying the other like last year.
Kovalev still on pace for a 40 goal season, 1/8 of the way through the campaign.
Andrei Markov: quite simply, the bargain of the year. Second in scoring, multiple game winning goals, and ice time leader. All for millions less than Zdeno Chara.
Youngsters Grabovski and especially Chipchura looking right at home in the NHL.
Even Kostopolous turning his play around, without benefit of a benching.
Mathieu Dandenault, opportunistic forechecker extraordinaire? May the surprises never cease, at least of the pleasant variety.

But let's not get too giddy. The Habs looked pretty good early last season too. Then came Christmas, and the Habs seemed to take an extended holiday season. All the way through the off-season. Off course, a major injury to Huet and a a flu bug that wouldn't go away didn't help either. Plus Kovalev's vertigo. Chalk last season up to Murphy's Law. Or was it Ironic? Alanis has me all messed up.

But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.

Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:

Habs blow 3-0 lead over Pittsburgh, before Price puts the entire team on his back and wins in the shootout.
Habs take 5-1 lead over Carolina, but then let them creep back to within two goals before sealing it with the empty netter.
In Ottawa, they manage to scramble back to tie it at 3-3, but then give it away seconds later with 6 mins left in the game.
Habs have a slight 1-0 lead over Florida, but are otherwise dominating. They allow a late game tying goal, and then lost in the shootout.
Habs take 3-1 lead over Toronto, but end up losing in OT to the Leafs of all teams. Ugh.

Some of it I think is due to personnel. As much as I love Mark Streit, we really have four 3rd tier dmen: Streit, Bouillon, Gorges and Brisebois. Not much we can do about that in the short term. They're all doing well enough, but the average ice time is telling. Hamrlik, Komisarek and Markov average between 21-25 minutes. Whereas Brisebois, Streit and Bouillon average 17.5 to 18 minutes.

But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.

But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.

Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.

Bring back Max

2007-10-16T15:56:00.000-07:00

While it's much too early to begin the hand-wringing, there are obviously some concerns about the Habs early season play. As predicted, the Habs play decent defense, and have stellar goaltending. But the offense is somewhat lacking.

Carbo has been juggling the last three lines like crazy, trying to find three scoring lines and one checking line. But we have more checking line forwards than we do scoring forwards. Plus, there are some guys who don't deserve much ice time, especially Tom Kostopolous. He's now a team worst -4 (albeit tied with my boy Mark Streit). But he doesn't make up for it with offensive upside. He was mostly an unknown when Bob signed him, and I was a little puzzled. But I figured Bob was looking at the following:

he's right handed, and Habs desperately need more
he could replace Mike Johnson on the right side of the third line, for cheaper than Johnson was being paid
if he doesn't work out there, stick Maxim Lapierre on the right side, and drop him to the fourth

Well Max didn't have a very good training camp, but is now tearing it up in Hamilton. Kostopolous, on the other hand, is not having a very good regular season, and is causing me to tear my hair out.

So Bob, how about the following:

Put Garth and his broken foot on IR
Let Kostopolous watch from the press box a few games
Bring back Max

Carbo was complaining about the lack of energy his team has brought so far, esp when they only show up for a period or two. That was never Max's problem. Max won't help their scoring issues, but he can play D. And the Habs have had a bad habit of not holding leads (or momentum, as in the Ottawa game).

It's too bad that Bob didn't sign either Bonk or Johnson. Bonk signed with Nashville for only $1.475M per and Johnson at $.75M with St. Louis. Kostopolous on the other hand, got $.9k and Bryan Smolinski (ostensibly Bonk's replacement) got $2M. If Bob had thrown the same money at Johnson and Bonk, with maybe a compensation-for-playing-in-Montreal signing bonus, we'd have a legitimate shutdown line and still be under the cap. Oh well.

But let's not dwell entirely on the negatives. What about the positives so far, including:

Carey Price's unveiling as a legitimate NHL goalie. After two games he's not ready to unseat Huet as the #1, but it appears that Carbo is going with the tandem approach: play Huet 2-3 games, then Price. I think this works both in terms of keeping Huet fresh and healthy (see last year when not) and giving Price some valuable NHL game experience. Then, if Price is up to it, trade Huet.
Patrice Brisebois, decent dman. Who woulda thunk it? He's made one or two unholy giveaways, like against the Panthers. Luckily, Cristobal bailed him out on that one. Still not bad. I fully expected such an occurrence on every other shift. He might actually be earning his role as #4.
Mark Streit, PP setup man. I still think he deserves a shot at the #4, but maybe Carbo figures that Streit's defensive prowess is more helpful to Bouillon, who can make mistakes of his own -- sometimes going for the big hit and getting out of position. So is being #5 a testament to Streit's skill? Could be.
Alex Kovalev on almost a point per game pace? Also on pace for 41 goals, exactly where he needs to be? I guess I shoudn't be so surprised, given a player of his skill. But we've all known more disappointment from him than anything else, so I'm warily watching how this unfolds.

Give that man a raise!

2007-10-05T16:51:00.000-07:00

Mark Streit seems to be the underdog hero of the moment, following his unexpected Sheldon Souray impersonation in the Habs' opening night win. Check out the recent articles on his exploits in the Globe and Mail and the Montreal Gazette.

Of course, we here at Habs GM have always been Mark Streit fans. Well "always" is a little strong, but certainly at least since the 2006 Olympics.

But I guess Marky Mark won't get to have more ice time with the Fun Bunch if Patrice Brisebois keeps up his strong play. Sure it was just one game, but after virtually zero preseason ice time, Brisebois' play was pleasantly uneventful.

So that sets up quite the nice conundrum for Bob and co. All sorts of depth on the blueline, and of the veteran variety as well. Having Gorges sit, after (by all accounts) an impressive preseason shows that Bob might just know what he's doing. Whoever doubted him? Ok, well me, I guess, with just signing Brisebois in the first place.

So the Habs have the luxury of sitting capable dmen, just as they have the luxury of sitting NHL-caliber goaltenders -- and even sending them to the farm. Now Bob can sit back and wait for the fruits of his labors to ripen, and snap up the first good offer from a team desperate for quality dmen and netminders.

Yes, I know, I'm getting way ahead of myself here. After all it was just one game. Brisebois might fall apart, and Streit could get hurt. But there again, depth helps -- in steps Dandenault and Gorges. So not bad, Bob. Not bad at all.

The Final Cut

2007-10-02T13:16:00.000-07:00

Yes, I know it should be plural. But I just love the name ... of that album. Pink Floyd's last with Roger Waters. Some good tunes, but I think the acrimony between band members spilled over into the creative process.

Ok, ok back to the Habs. Some interesting final cuts made by Bob and company. I'm a bit surprised by some of them, given what I thought would play out. But my trust is in Bob -- despite any claims made by the title I've given this blog. I firmly believe that he is righting this ship, largely through the paper arts. He's gotten rid of most of the bloated salaries (Theo, Sammy) and bad locker room vibe (Dagenais, Ribeiro, etc) and has the farm stocked with lots of young talent to pull us through to a Cup win hopefully in the near future.

There's still one guy left whom you could argue fits into both the bloated-salary and bad-locker-room-vibe categories: Alex Kovalev. Gainey beat me to the punchline, but after writing the last post, I came to the same conclusion. Kovalev has got to start earning that $4.5M this year. Sure that's not superstar money these days, but it ain't chump change either. He's also got the "A" pinned to his chest now, so he'd better start leading in the clubhouse too.

I saw a game last year, where RDS had him mic'd up. He was non-stop yapping, esp to his linemates on the bench. I thought that could only be a good thing. He's a veteran, and he had some youngsters playing with him at times. Who wouldn't want to have some personal hockey tutoring by Alex Kovalev?

Except this dude has to prove the adage wrong, the one where "those who can't do, teach." Kovy's got to do it, all over the ice. 40 goals would sure be nice. If not, he might truly be the final cut.

As to the other roster news:

Price is staying. Very interesting. Gainey apparently overruled Carbo on this one. Even more interesting. I thought Price would go to Hamilton, given Carbo's earlier statement on Price. So either Price will be sitting a lot, or will be playing more than the usual backup. I think the latter. I suspect Bob will try to move Huet and maybe Halak or Danis too.
Lapierre isn't. I really liked what I saw from Lapierre last year. He mixes it up, getting opponents to take bad penalties, but plays good D too. But apparently that didn't show this preseason. I'm sure he'll be back.
And neither is O'Byrne. I'm sure he'll be the first to be called up should the Habs defensive corps thin out from injury, illness or sheer ineffectiveness.
Brisebois is #4. WTF? That's all I have to say. No, I have more. I thought for sure that his signing was all about depth on the right side, esp if O'Byrne (another righty) wasn't ready. But now he's slotted ahead of Streit, Dandenault, Bouillon and Gorges? I don't get it.

Scoring lines

2007-10-01T09:23:00.000-07:00

I decided to write about the 1st and 2nd lines in one post, given the fluidity that often happens in trying to create mismatches with opponents and chemistry on the lines themselves.

Ok, the truth: I'm really late with this, and since the season starts tomorrow, I better get moving. I should have had all this done by now, and be on to commenting on what really happened.

So now I'm in the awkward position of having to pretend that the final cuts didn't happen, and stay in my little Habs GM bubble.

Here's what I foresaw happening for the Habs final scoring pairs:

1st: Kostitsyn-Koivu-Kovalev
2nd: Higgins-Plekanec-Ryder

All sorts of problems with these lines on the surface, but easily explainable:

Chris Higgins is our best left wing. What's he doing on the second line? The simple answer is balance. Scotty Bowman even weighed in last year, saying that the Habs would do best if they would split up Higgins from the rest of their top line and thereby force other teams to have to concentrate on one line or the other. Who am I to argue with Scotty?
Only one right hander among 6 forwards? This isn't ideal to be certain. But that's what happens when you get a left-handed right winger with the kind of talent that Alexei Kovalev brings. Last year, the answer was to bring in a right-handed left winger by the name of Sergei Samsonov. That didn't work out so well. Then with Kovalev's sliding play, he ended up playing with the team's lone right-handed center, Maxim Lapierre. I don't see that happening again this year, so I put him on the top line. His pre-season play seemed to warrant the move anyway
Kostitsyn playing on the top line? I just like they symmetry. Call it the KKK line. Ok, wait. Don't call it that.

There are some other benefits to these lineups too. First, Higgins and Plekanec play a balls-out type of game. They'll crash the net and pay the price to create a scoring chance. They can also carry the puck effectively. Ryder can do neither of these. But he's a sniper, and the talents of the other two ought to open up some ice for him.

The first line really only has Koivu in the mold of Plekanec and Higgins. Kostitsyn has shown some goal scoring ability, and has speed to boot. Kovalev is old and slow, but uses it to his advantage. He likes to trail the play, and with Koivu and Kostitsyn rushing forward quickly, that ought to leave him opportunities to grab rebounds, throw a nifty move or two and bury the puck.

Or at least that's the theory.

The third line

2007-09-28T09:21:00.000-07:00

Now for the third line, often known as the checking line. These are the guys that don't get much glory, very little by way of ESPN or TSN coverage. But they are essential. If defense wins Cups, then our checking line has got to have it all working.

Last year, the Habs had a decent third line. It revolved around Radek Bonk at center and Mike Johnson at right wing. A lefty and a righty, and they formed the core of one of the best PK's in the league -- at least for the first half of the season. And even when season began to collapse right around Christmas, the Habs maintained a pretty good PK rating. It was only later in the season did that slide as well.

And maybe it was this slide that made Bob think they were expendable. Neither was resigned, with Bonk going to Nashville and Johnson still a free agent. Bob got replacements for both, and for a lot less: Bryan Smolinski and Tom Kostopoulos.

Of the two, I think Smolinski is the bigger addition. Some have wondered whether TK will end up on the third or fourth line. I haven't seen him play, but I think the only person to displace him from the third line would be Maxim Lapierre. Chipchura's too much of an unknown to get more than 4th line minutes, and Latendresse isn't a guy I would pick to help shut down an opponents' top line.

So I have TK on the checking line's right wing, although it's all by virtue of reputation. With my extreme Habs' blinders on, I've never seen the dude play. Never even heard of him before Bob picked him up.

On Smolinski's left is the more important piece: Steve Begin. He's a heart-and-soul type. Leaves it all out on the ice, much like Bouillon and Lapierre. In fact, he leaves a little too much out there, as he was oft injured last year. I don't think any other Hab blocked shots as frequently as Begin did.

Begin is also a lefty, complementing Smolinski's right-handed shot, so the two of them will make a nice first PK unit. Begin also can play center, meaning that he can take important defensive zone draws on the PK, in case Smolinski gets booted. Smolinski can then feel a bit more comfortable in being aggressive in the faceoff circle. Begin will have his back.

Begin is one of my favorites. I want to see him get more ice time, and playing with a veteran playmaker like Bryan Smolinski.

The fourth line

2007-09-23T16:03:00.000-07:00

Yes, yes, I know I skipped the first defensive pairing. But anyone who's really wondering who will be Carbo's top shutdown pair hasn't been paying attention (psst, Markov and Komisarek; Shut 'Em Down should be their anthem).

So I'm skipping the obvious and heading directly to the Habs' fourth line. For some teams, this is a chance to break in rookies. For some fortunate few, it's a second checking line. And for the remainder, it's an "energy" line, designed to disrupt the rhythm of an opponent, kind of like an offspeed or changeup pitch in baseball. Rarely, it's a combination of all three.

This year, I think the Habs will have a line that's a little bit of everything. Maxim Lapierre will be on the right wing, providing that bit of energy (remember the incidents with Ray Emery? Emery's a hothead, but Lapierre did his job). The rookie breaking in will be Kyle Chipchura at center, and Guilliame Latendresse will provide a bit of scoring pop and muscle in the corners at left wing.

And with Lapierre's and Chipchura's defensive capabilities, they could function as a second penalty kill unit. Three reasons why:

Both can and are being groomed into shutdown, checking-line players. Lapierre shadowed a few star players last year. We all remember how he got under Sidney Crosby's skin. That was kind of funny.
Both play center, meaning that either have a lot of experience at faceoffs. This is critical on the PK, as the first guy to take the faceoff can be a little more, uh, aggressive in his approach. If he gets kicked out, there's an equally adept faceoff man waiting to take his place.
Last but not least, Lapierre is right-handed and Chipchura is a lefty. As I've mentioned before, this is very important on defense.

Garth Murray might occasionally crack the lineup, as he's the only pugilist with any chance of making the roster. I'm guessing that he'll push Latendresse for ice time. Lats tended to disappear at times last year, and if that happens again, he'll be watching from the press box more often.

And if injuries hit, we might see Dandenault or Streit lining up as a forward again. Dandenault has more experience at it, but Streit looked much more comfortable and confident in that role. Still, I'd much rather see Streit as a top-4 dman, so let's hope the injury and illness bug doesn't hit again this year.

Blueliners: the second pairing

2007-09-21T16:45:00.001-07:00

I better pick up the pace here, seeing as the new season is just around the corner. No more long and rambling introductions; lets get straight to brass tacks (whatever that means): Guy and Bob will go with Hamrlik and Streit for their second pairing. Both are left handed, but the word is that Hamrlik is almost as good on his backhand as on his forehand. So he could play either side. That ought to give Bob and Carbo some options.

We all know Hamrlik is going to make the team and play on the second pairing. No surprise there. He's good, and is probably deserving of his fat contract, but still won't break up the excellent first tandem we have in Markov-Komisarek.

Streit, on the other hand, has been quite a revelation in his short tenure with the Habs. When he broke in a couple of years ago, he looked really nervous and lacked confidence. Then he went to the Olympics. I think he even captained the team. The same team that started off really hot, losing only to Finland in the preliminary round.

He came back seemingly reinvigorated and full of confidence. I remember one game where an opposing forward had an unimpeded breakaway. But Streit caught up, lunged and dove on the ice, deftly swatting the puck off the other guy's stick without touching him. It was brilliant.

I thought he had a chance last year too, but with the experience of Rivet, Souray, Komisarek, Markov, Bouillon and Dandenault all ahead of him, it was a tough lineup to crack. But he stuck with it, eventually playing left wing of all things, even on Saku's line. And he didn't fare too badly, ultimately netting 10 goals and 26 assists.

So this year ought to be his year. He's paid his dues. And Hamrlik is the best partner for him. He's big and he hits -- from what I've heard anyway. Streit can skate and pass as well as anyone, but his size has always been a limitation. Hamrlik, even though left handed, is apparently almost as good on his forehand as his back hand. Streit could then play the left side, with Hamrlik on the right.

Streit's offensive skills set him up to be an ideal PP QB. I wouldn't be surprised if he pairs with Markov on the first unit, as Komisarek might not be quite ready to be setting up Markov's slapshot with some nifty passes. I love big Mike, but O is not his forte.

Another reason to root for Mark Streit? Apparently he took less money to play with the Habs than he would have made had he remained in Europe. He wants to play with and compete against the best. This isn't about money for him.

Now isn't that refreshing?

Blueliners: the third pairing

2007-09-21T08:53:00.000-07:00

Ok, back to the breakdown of the (predicted) Habs' roster for this upcoming campaign. We've covered netminders and backup dmen. Now on to the third pairing. This one was a little difficult, given how well O'Byrne played in Hamilton this year, and the strong showing he's giving in pre-season. The Habs definitely need another hard hitting dman, to go along with new alternate captain Mike Komisarek.

O'Byrne is also a righty, and that would help balance out the Habs' defensive corps. Of the candidates with a realistic shot at making the club, only Dandenault, Komisarek and Brisebois are right handed. Brisebois will make the club but won't be playing regularly.

So that leaves a spot open, right?

I don't think so. Like I said before, I think the Habs are going with a veteran lineup, esp along the blueline. They signed two veterans in Hamrlik and Brisebois, and another two (Streit and Dandenault) have the flexibility to play a forward slot as well. Given the Habs' injury and illness woes last season, that is much needed flexibility.

So I'm sticking with Dandenault and Bouillon as the third pairing. Both had their struggles last year, but so did the entire team. And with the depth on defense this year, they should only need to play against third and fourth liners.

Dandenault and Bouillon have to know the heat is on, what with younger and perhaps hungrier players waiting for their shot (Gorges and O'Byrne especially). So this is their last shot.

Not exactly a rousing endorsement. And I admit that I've got a bit of a soft spot for the two, esp Bouillon. He leaves it all on the ice, night in and night out. And Dandenault does what is asked of him, even playing O. If Kovalev had this kind of heart, the Habs wouldn't have been watching the playoffs from home last year.

More rumors

2007-09-19T12:12:00.000-07:00

So there's a rumor making its rounds of the Habs blogosphere that the Sharks might be interested in our incumbent backup goalie, Jaroslav Halak. Just a rumor, sure, but one posted on RDS -- an outlet not normally known for publishing BS.

And it makes a certain amount of sense. The Sharks once were the envy of most of the NHL for their goaltending situation. They basically had two #1 goalies in Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala. And this was after trading away Mikka Kiprusoff (yikes! Who pulled the trigger on that one?!). They also had a very capable #3 in Nolan Schaefer, but inexplicably traded him away too.

Nabokov will still provide them quality starts for most of the season. But for those back-to-back games and other days when he needs rest, who will turn to? Thomas Greiss? Dmitri Patzold? They might have potential, but neither has played a single minute in the NHL. And like I've said before, goalies need time to mature.

Doug Wilson is a smart GM. He's built a contender, and for the long haul too. The Sharks are a trendy pre-season pick to win it all. They've got scoring, some toughness, a decent, maturing defense (our old friend Craig Rivet will help there) and excellent starting goaltending. But their Achilles heel, IMO, is their backup goaltending.

That is the Habs' overwhelming strength. And the Sharks are strong where the Habs are weak -- big forwards who can put the puck in the net. Now I don't see Joe Thornton, Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo or Patrick Marleau coming over. Halak just isn't worth that much, at least not now.

But maybe Steve Bernier? He fills that big hole on the top two lines, plus he's right handed. The fact that he's French-Canadian is just gravy. Imagine him and Latendresse lining up on either side of Saku Koivu. I like it.

Others have suggested Ryan Clowe, who showed up big in last year's playoffs. He started on the fourth line, and ended on the first and second lines.

A trade to a Pacific Division rival makes all sorts of sense too, although I thought it would be LA. Well, we'll see how this all plays out.

Blueliners

2007-09-15T20:29:00.000-07:00

So word out of training camp is that Mathieu Dandenault is on the hot seat. Much of what is printed in La Presse is complete garbage, at least when it concerns the Habs. Notice that there is no direct quote of what Carbo said regarding Dandenault. But one interesting thing was noted: the Habs would carry 8 dmen this year.

Now that I can believe, and three reasons why:

Both Mark Streit and Dandenault can play either forward or D.
The forward positions are a little more in flux, given the departures of Bonk, Johnson, Samsonov, Perezhogin and others. Sure, they will be replaced mostly by veterans, but who knows how all that will pan out. I don't think anyone predicted saw Sammy going down quite as badly as he did.
The addition of Patrice Brisebois. I doubt he's going to play much, but he didn't sign to shuttle back and forth from Hamilton either.

But Dandenault can't get any worse treatment than Brisebois or Bouillon. These are the three lowest performing veteran blueliners on the team. Bouillon was actually scratched a few times last year, whereas I can't remember Dandenault being scratched once. And we all know of the defensive liabilities of Breeze-by.

But if any or all of these guys play like they are capable of playing, they make for decent 3rd pairing material.

And that, my friends, is one helluva long re-introduction to my ongoing series of the upcoming Habs lineup. We last left with the thrilling episode of who was to man the pipes for the Habs this season. And true to how one builds a winning hockey team, we proceed to the blueliners.

I was going to start with the third line pairings. But given the Habs' aforementioned predisposition to carrying 8 dmen, I'll start with my predictions of the unlucky two who will ride the pine most of the season.

And for the best good-enough-to-make-the-squad-but-not-good-enough-to-play-regularly performance, the awards go to: Patrice Brisebois and Josh Gorges!

Not really going out on a limb there. Given my last post on the importance of balancing right handers and left handers on the blue line, it's no shock that one (Brisebois) is a righty and the other is a lefty. This keeps options open for Bob and Carbo, along with the insurance that Streit and Dandenault bring with their ability to play D or O.

Not to give too much away, but my bets are on the veterans for the entire blueline. Dmen take longer to mature, much like goalies. You have to bring them along slowly, to teach them the finer points of clearing the crease and blasting a shot from the point. You don't want to some awkward rookie being your next-to-last hope with Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson hurtling down the ice.

Brisebois can't be much worse than Niinimaa last year (can he?). And Gorges played decently if unspectacularly last year. I've heard much displeasure about him from Sharks' fans, but I think the Sharks' blueline is far too dependent on youngsters, like Gorges. If you have a youngster in the lineup, you to pair him with a veteran. Many credit Hamrlik's work with Dion Phaneuf as a reason why Phaneuf fared so well in his first few years. So I think Gorges will do (and has done) well with the well-seasoned Montreal blueline.

So the next post will continue this ongoing thrilling saga of how Bob is building a Stanley Cup contender. That is, if other more intriguing developments don't intervene.

Righties and Lefties

2007-09-07T21:01:00.000-07:00

Ok, one more tangent before I dive into the rest of the much anticipated dissection of the Habs' lineup. I promise. Ok, I don't promise. But I'll try.

When looking at lineups, I get a little obsessive about who is right handed and who is left handed. For good reason, at least as far as obsessions go. The Habs, like many teams, are a little heavy with left handers (more on that later). That's not good, as on any one forward line, or any one defensive pairing, you need a balance of lefties and righties.

Here's why: most players shoot and pass best on their forehand. Some are so dependent on one side, that they'll go to illegal lengths to change the curve of their stick. How many times have you seen someone set up perfectly on one side of the net, with both goalie and defenseman out of position? But he doesn't shoot. No, he wastes precious milliseconds spinning to his forehand to get a better shot. In some cases, that's all the goalie or defenseman needs to get back in position. Or if he does try to get off a backhander, it's so weak that it'd be lucky to go in the general direction of the net.

So for forwards, it's just a matter of odds. Not everyone is going to get a puck on their forehand in the offensive zone, even if you had all left-handed left wingers and right-handed right wingers. But if each line could have just one right hander, that'd be preferable, esp on the penalty kill.

But for blueliners, it's a necessity. It's just much easier to catch the puck hurtling around the boards on your forehand. And not just because that's the side where they're most comfortable. But also because the curve of the blade is better suited to catch the puck.

Bob realizes much the same thing. Look at who he has picked up the past couple of years: Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov, Aaron Downey, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous, and Brian Smolinski. All right handers. Even Hamrlik's signing could be attributed in part to restoring balance, as he's supposedly as good on his forehand as his backhand. In fact these types of players are preferable, as they aren't dependent on one side alone.

And Carbo has taken advantage of the rebalancing, esp with his defensive pairings. Last year, he paired up his dmen more or less like this (on the left are the lefties, the right are the righties):

Markov(L) - Komisarek(R)
Souray(L) - Rivet(R)
Bouillon(L) - Dandenault(R)

So Hamrlik's ambidextrous ability hasn't taken Souray's spot so much as Rivet's. I'll argue (later) that Streit will be the one to take Souray's spot in the top 4.

But why so many left handers? When I was growing up, I was always told to play with the stick that seemed most natural. For whatever reason, I felt most comfortable with the left handed sticks -- even though I wrote right handed, threw right handed, picked my nose right handed. Actually the latter was more of an ambidextrous activity, but you get my meaning.

I'm guessing that for whatever reason, most players feel comfortable from the left side. I doubt it has anything to do with the dominant side for other activities, ie, if you write right handed, then you play hockey left handed. From what I know only 10% of the world is left hand dominant, so hockey would have dreadfully few right handers. So how does it break down? Who knows?

Rumors and innuendo

2007-09-03T21:04:00.000-07:00

Ok, I'm diverting from my incisive and definitive position-by-position analysis of the Habs to present a totally unsubstantiated, completely fabricated rumor that I'd like to start. See, I write this blog, so I get to take off on any wild tangent I want.

Actually, it's not so wild. It does relate to the last post in that I talked about how the Habs' biggest strength going into the 2007-08 season is goaltending. So here it is: Bob Gainey is considering sending Cristobal Huet back to the Kings for Alexander Frolov.

No, I'm not a total nutjob, I swear (I think? Would a nutjob ever admit to being a nutjob?). There is some substance to this.

The Kings desperately need a starting goalie, and my take is that letting Garon walk was part of Kings GM Dean Lombardi's plan to snag a proven #1 goalie. Lombardi is no dummy, and knows contenders are built from the goalie on out. Remember, he's the guy that drafted both Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov, but wasn't the guy who traded Mikka Kiprusoff for a 2nd round pick (that was Lombardi's successor).

But so far, Lombardi's offseason has focused on the blueline, adding two former Sharks in Tom Preissing and Brad Stuart. Preissing had an impressive season with the Sens, posting a whopping +40. Stuart was one of the key pieces in the Joe Thornton trade, and will surely be a top 4 dman in La La land. Lombardi also added veteran Jon Klemm, for added depth. Now add returnees Rob Blake, Lubomir Visnovsky, Jack Johnson and Jaroslav Modry, and LA's defense looks much better than last year -- at least on paper.

So Lombardi's blueline appears to be in better shape, but he let his best goalie go. Why? Does he really think that career backups JS Aubin, Dan Cloutier and Jason LaBarbera will suddenly transform into starting material? Well, I guess it is LA, and perhaps the Hollywood vibe has gone to his head.

Or maybe because he thinks there are other options, via trade. He would have loved to snag one of his former goalies from the Sharks, but no way Doug Wilson is going to let either one play against him 8 times a year. So Toskala was shipped to the Leafs. The Ducks also have a couple of #1's. Ilya Bryzgalov would be a great fit in LA, but the same intra-division trade story there; Brian Burke wouldn't do it.

But if Carey Price forces Gainey's hand, then he'd first shop either Halak or Huet out west, for the same reason neither Burke nor Wilson would want to deal with Lombardi.

So why Huet? Why not Halak? Huet is a proven commodity. Halak has loads of potential, but won't bring back as much as Huet will. And I'd assume that if Price is ready for the big time, Carbo's not going to want him riding the bench.

Still, it could be Halak that goes. As I said in my last post, Huet will need lots of rest if he is to play a full season. That would allow a youngster like Price enough playing time. But Lombardi would want more than just Halak. Maybe Alexei Kovalev? Nah, Lombardi ain't dumb. Maybe Andrei Kostitsyn? That would suck, but I think Lombardi would want a right hander. Lombo has been carefully balancing his team much like Gainey has, picking up right handers where possible. If you look at the 3 dmen he signed, two were righties (Preissing and Klemm). Add Blake, and you've got 3 righties that can play every night.

So why Frolov? The Habs need a big, right handed sniper to play alongside Koivu. Frolov fits the bill perfectly. He led the Kings in goals with 35 last year. Not to jinx him, but as a right handed left winger he fits (on paper) with Kovalev, a left handed right winger. Of course, Sergei Samsonov was supposed to fill the exact same role too. I don't think that turned out too well.

But let's not let that one analogy ruin a perfectly good rumor. Suffice it to say that the Habs need big right handed dudes that can put the puck in the net. Those aren't exactly a dime a dozen. And with the Kings need for a #1 netminder, this rumor has some legs.

Building a contender: goaltending

2007-08-20T15:39:00.000-07:00

This is the first in an ongoing series, examining the Habs more or less line by line.

This post examines where any good GM ought to start when building a contender: between the pipes. The Habs are in as good a situation as any team going into this next season. Cristobal Huet is the incumbent starter. Since dethroning King Jose some time back, he has been at or near the top of the league in save percentage.

I'd argue that this is a more important stat than GAA, as it's typically a better indication of how good your defense is. Dominik Hasek was near the top last year in GAA, but faced a paltry amount of shots. And well he should, given the guys in front of him: Dany Markov, Nik Lidstrom, Chris Chelios, etc.

The Habs, on the other hand, didn't give much help on D. Souray and Rivet were great in the locker room, but are a little slow for today's NHL. And when injuries and illness hit, Janne Niinimaa as the veteran backup surely tried many a Habs' fan's pulmonary activity.

But back to Cristobal. He is a cool customer in the crease, seemingly always in position and therefore rarely in need of the spectacular save. The opposite could be said for his predecessor, who make many a highlight reel with his acrobatic saves. Huet doesn't have Jose's lateral mobility, so positioning is critical. How many times does the puck hit him squarely in the CH? He makes shooters look like they have bad aim, but I think they just wonder how he can always be in the right place at the right time.

As much as I admire his game, I have questions about Cristobal's ability to carry the load 65-70 games per year. He's never been a full time starter before his fortuitous landing in Habland. The year before, he took over mid-season and played only 36 games -- almost all of them in eye-opening form.

He started off last season not quite as well, allowing David Aebischer back into contention as the #1. But he rounded into form again only to fall apart in late December. He then tore his hamstring, and yet came back ahead of schedule late in the season. How's that for up and down?

My theory? He doesn't have the stamina for a full time goalie. Play him 2 out of every 3 starts or so, and that ought to give him the rest he needs.

And this plays right into the Canadiens' strengths: they have potentially three goalies who could capably back up Huet. Jaroslav Halak is the incumbent, a veritable Cristobal Jr: cool as ice in the nets, and usually impeccably positioned. He looks like he needs to learn some shooters' tendencies, but that will come with time.

Yann Danis is the oft-forgotten potential backup. Prior to last year, he was the Hamilton Bulldogs' go-to guy. That is, until Jaroslav started making noise last year. Then when Huet went down, Halak got the call over Danis. I remember seeing Danis as Theo's backup a few years back, and was impressed.

So I wouldn't blame him if he were a little frustrated. And it gets worse for him -- but good for the Habs. Danis now has to contend with not one young star in Halak, but also Carey Price. Bob drafted Price a few years back, puzzling many as he already had a Conn Smythe/Vezina winner locked up in a multi-year contract. But in any sport, you always draft the best player available. If you end up having an embarassment of riches at one position, then you work the trade market.

That's what will happen in Hab land, sooner or later. I think Bob will/should be patient with Price. It's never a good idea to rush a goalie. But if Price should prove his worth sooner rather than later, then someone's got to move. Price is only worth bringing up if he's ready to take over. If he's the goalie of the future, why have him riding the pine when he could be playing full time in Hamilton?

In my next post, I'll examine a possible trade scenario, one that will take advantage of the Habs' goaltending strength and take care of their most glaring weakness going into this season.

First things First

2007-08-01T12:28:00.000-07:00

It's always appropriate and polite to start things off with introductions (and this blog will be nothing if not appropriate and polite. Well maybe just polite.)

I'm a long time Habs fan, since the days of Guy Lafleur, Steve Shutt and Ken Dryden. There was a period in the 80's and 90's where I didn't pay nearly as much attention to the Habs as the true die-hard I am now. I guess my hockey fix (obsession?) was being satisfied by weekly 3 hour sessions of road hockey. I was a rather mediocre defenseman, and not much better as a goalie. But it was fun!

As I grew older, my body could no longer take the pounding and I had to scratch that hockey itch in some form. Besides watching each and every game, regular and post-season, I frequent the many blogs that post the latest Habs news and opinions. Just in case you're interested (and you're probably not, but hey, you've made it this far), here are what I think are the best out there:

A Theory of Ice: thoughts and observations on the Habs and ice hockey in general by a recent convert to the Habs faith. It's a philosophical treatise in the making. This might just be the most intelligent blog I have ever read, on any subject. "E" balances out this intelligence with humor and class. And by humor, I mean laugh out loud humor. A must read, even if sometimes her philosophizing goes way above my head.

Habs Inside/Out: This is the best place for Habs news, started and staffed by the Montreal Gazette. Unlike some other Montreal newspapers, the Gazette generally doesn't feed on problems in Habland. They are, for the most part, real fans who want to see the Habs do well and generally support the team, it's players, coaches and management. Not to say they are blind sycophants either. I'd like to say they are "Fair and Balanced" but that might be taken the wrong way. I wish I could say the same for some of those who post comments there, but I think some people like drama and seek to create it wherever they go. Let's not do that here, eh?

Four Habs Fans: This site is more funny than informative, but I can't visit it that often. See, I spend way too much time surfing blogs and news while at work, and the oft-posted shots of strippers would push that bad habit a bit too far. But still, these guys are pretty funny.

Nos Canadiens: My french sucks, but from what little I can read of this blog, I like. I guess it's terrible that the only motivation I have to improve my french is to read blogs like this and watch RDS. Heck, understanding only half of what Yvon Pedneault and Pierre Houde have to say is better than the drivel that emanates from your standard CBC HNIC broadcasters.