From espn.com's Scott Burnside, this little nugget in the aftermath of the big Phaneuf trade: "... Olli Jokinen, Sutter's big trade-deadline acquisition last season, ... has been an unmitigated disaster. Jokinen has just 11 goals and 35 points this season, far below what a top-line center making his kind of money ($5.5 million this season) should be producing. It's worth noting that Matthew Lombardi -- the roster player who went to Phoenix in the Jokinen deal -- has 10 goals and 35 points and is making $2.35 million."
Interestingly, this year Scott Gomez is making almost twice as much as Olli Jokinen. $10M to be exact. And he also has only 35 points, to go with only 7 goals.
So if Olli Jokinen is an "unmitigated disaster" what does that make Scott Gomez?
Monday, February 1, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
A proposal, v. 2
Dallas isn't the only Western Conference team in need of a long term goaltending solution and with significant cap space to. St. Louis also fits that description.
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)-Gionta
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
Sunday, December 20, 2009
A proposal
So Jaroslav Halak wants out? With Carey Price solidifying his play (save his troublesome glove hand; use a broken-in mitt, Carey!), Halak is somewhat expendable. "Somewhat" because Price hasn't proven that he can't be a Brodeur-like iron man. Martin has tried, at least twice starting Price in both games of a back-to-back. And both times Price looked good in the opener, and somewhat suspect in the closer. To wit:
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Another look at the ugly
With a quarter of the season played, the last post looked at Bob Gainey's Extreme Habs Makeover. Most of it looked pretty good. A few bad moves, to be sure. And Gainey certainly got lucky by not re-signing a couple of players he had no business chasing in the first place.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Extreme Habs Makeover: the good, the bad and the ugly
So here we are, 23 games into the season. After a poor start, the team is definitely on the upswing, overcoming extensive injuries with disciplined play and outstanding goaltending. So is Gainey's pre-season plan of going small and fast up front, and big and experienced on the blue line paying off? Most of the acquisitions (and deletions) were for the better. Some, just the opposite. And one in particular looks like it will haunt the Habs for years to come. A look at all of the pre-season changes:
The Good
First the acquisitions:
Mike Cammalleri: Leads the team in goals, despite being bounced around between the first and second lines. Bonus? Leads the team in +/-.
Brian Gionta: Second on the team in goals, and provides valuable leadership to boot. He won the Cup withNew Jersey
Jaroslav Spacek: Leads all defensemen in +/- and second to defense partner Hamrlik in ATOI.
Travis Moen: His size has been effective in playing the kind of puck possession game Martin desires, and wears down opposing defenses with his aggressive forecheck (leads the team in hits). This sort of grinding style will pay off in the playoffs -- assuming the Habs reach the playoffs. Bonus? Cup-winning experience in Anaheim, and his unexpected offense.
Jacques Martin: Sure he's not a player, but he was a good hire. The players seems to be buying into his system, winning even with half the team as callups from Hamilton. Hockey can be won on talent alone, but it's discipline that usually gets you over the top.
Now the additions by subtraction:
Alex Kovalev: His inconsistency and drama are now Ottawa's problems. And yet Gainey was apparently ready to give him the same deal. If it weren't for some miscommunication, we'd have AK-27 instead of Gionta.
Mike Komisarek: Essentially replaced by the much steadier and cheaper (albeit less splashy) Jaroslav Spacek. Komisarek’s shortcomings have been commented upon before; no need to belabor the point. And yet he was another near Gainey re-signing, making me wonder if Gainey prefers highlight reel hockey rather than actual effectiveness.
Mathieu Schneider: He provided offense no doubt. But how often in playing the point on the PP did he let speedy forwards blow by him for a shorthanded chance?
Mathieu Dandenault and Francis Bouillon: These were decent 6th and 7th dmen, and Dandenault's versatility paid dividends. But it's time to give some of the youngsters a shot.
Tom Kostopolous and Robert Lang: Both players were solid in their respective contributions. Tom Nonstopolous was really best suited as a energy-providing 4th liner. Lang was a great contributor on the PP as the only right-handed scoring forward, but there’s simply no space on the roster for him.
The Bad
Again, acquisitions first:
Paul Mara: Leads the D in hits, but is last in blocked shots among d-men who have played every game. He brings experience and size, but takes minutes from youngsters. And it looks like Gainey could have had Bergeron for a cheaper price and better offense – although at a cost of more heart-stopping adventures in his own zone.
Hal Gill: Yes, he just won the Cup. But $4.5M over two years for essentially a 7th dman? Markov, Gorges, Hamrlik, Spacek, O'Byrne and even Bergeron, Mara and Leach have played better D. He is the proverbial pylon, albeit a Paul Bunyan-sized version.
Now, the deletions:
Saku Koivu: There should have been some transition from old to new, as witnessed by the Habs' extremely poor start. And no one has claimed the mantle of Captain, something that Koivu did with extraordinary skill. He would have been an effective 2nd line center behind Plekanec, and his faceoff skills are sorely missed.
Alex Tanguay: Yes, he passes when he should shoot. But the Habs were much more dynamic when he was in the lineup as he made just about any line click. He led the team in +/- and was second on the team in points per game despite only 16:05 ATOI. Plus, he was the closest thing to a hometown hero the Habs have iced since Jose Theodore.
The Ugly
Scott Gomez: He has played decent hockey (and so wasn't a bad acquisition), but he's just not worth what the Habs gave up. He has put up second line center numbers, but for franchise center money.
Worse, his signing handcuffs the Habs for years to come. Some have suggested that Gainey only made the trade so that Gionta would sign. But Gainey only turned to Gionta after he didn't hear anything from Kovalev’s agent – all days after the Gomez trade.
With all that cap space, Gainey could have signed Koivu and Tanguay. He could have kept Higgins (an effective penalty killer who was going UFA anyway) and one of his best blue line prospects in McDonagh. And he might have had Koivu and Tanguay for less money than each settled for in Tampa respectively, simply because a multi-year deal could have been offered.
And what of next offseason, when Plekanec and Metropolit go UFA> and Price and Lapierre are RFA's? Plekanec will almost certainly go elsewhere – especially since next year the cap will most likely shrink. The Habs will simply not be able to afford him. Heck, with a shrinking cap, they won’t be able to afford Metropolit. The Gomez trade in by itself may undo all the other good work done by Gainey this offseason.
The Good
First the acquisitions:
Mike Cammalleri: Leads the team in goals, despite being bounced around between the first and second lines. Bonus? Leads the team in +/-.
Brian Gionta: Second on the team in goals, and provides valuable leadership to boot. He won the Cup with
Jaroslav Spacek: Leads all defensemen in +/- and second to defense partner Hamrlik in ATOI.
Travis Moen: His size has been effective in playing the kind of puck possession game Martin desires, and wears down opposing defenses with his aggressive forecheck (leads the team in hits). This sort of grinding style will pay off in the playoffs -- assuming the Habs reach the playoffs. Bonus? Cup-winning experience in Anaheim, and his unexpected offense.
Jacques Martin: Sure he's not a player, but he was a good hire. The players seems to be buying into his system, winning even with half the team as callups from Hamilton. Hockey can be won on talent alone, but it's discipline that usually gets you over the top.
Now the additions by subtraction:
Alex Kovalev: His inconsistency and drama are now Ottawa's problems. And yet Gainey was apparently ready to give him the same deal. If it weren't for some miscommunication, we'd have AK-27 instead of Gionta.
Mike Komisarek: Essentially replaced by the much steadier and cheaper (albeit less splashy) Jaroslav Spacek. Komisarek’s shortcomings have been commented upon before; no need to belabor the point. And yet he was another near Gainey re-signing, making me wonder if Gainey prefers highlight reel hockey rather than actual effectiveness.
Mathieu Schneider: He provided offense no doubt. But how often in playing the point on the PP did he let speedy forwards blow by him for a shorthanded chance?
Mathieu Dandenault and Francis Bouillon: These were decent 6th and 7th dmen, and Dandenault's versatility paid dividends. But it's time to give some of the youngsters a shot.
Tom Kostopolous and Robert Lang: Both players were solid in their respective contributions. Tom Nonstopolous was really best suited as a energy-providing 4th liner. Lang was a great contributor on the PP as the only right-handed scoring forward, but there’s simply no space on the roster for him.
The Bad
Again, acquisitions first:
Paul Mara: Leads the D in hits, but is last in blocked shots among d-men who have played every game. He brings experience and size, but takes minutes from youngsters. And it looks like Gainey could have had Bergeron for a cheaper price and better offense – although at a cost of more heart-stopping adventures in his own zone.
Hal Gill: Yes, he just won the Cup. But $4.5M over two years for essentially a 7th dman? Markov, Gorges, Hamrlik, Spacek, O'Byrne and even Bergeron, Mara and Leach have played better D. He is the proverbial pylon, albeit a Paul Bunyan-sized version.
Now, the deletions:
Saku Koivu: There should have been some transition from old to new, as witnessed by the Habs' extremely poor start. And no one has claimed the mantle of Captain, something that Koivu did with extraordinary skill. He would have been an effective 2nd line center behind Plekanec, and his faceoff skills are sorely missed.
Alex Tanguay: Yes, he passes when he should shoot. But the Habs were much more dynamic when he was in the lineup as he made just about any line click. He led the team in +/- and was second on the team in points per game despite only 16:05 ATOI. Plus, he was the closest thing to a hometown hero the Habs have iced since Jose Theodore.
The Ugly
Scott Gomez: He has played decent hockey (and so wasn't a bad acquisition), but he's just not worth what the Habs gave up. He has put up second line center numbers, but for franchise center money.
Worse, his signing handcuffs the Habs for years to come. Some have suggested that Gainey only made the trade so that Gionta would sign. But Gainey only turned to Gionta after he didn't hear anything from Kovalev’s agent – all days after the Gomez trade.
With all that cap space, Gainey could have signed Koivu and Tanguay. He could have kept Higgins (an effective penalty killer who was going UFA anyway) and one of his best blue line prospects in McDonagh. And he might have had Koivu and Tanguay for less money than each settled for in Tampa respectively, simply because a multi-year deal could have been offered.
And what of next offseason, when Plekanec and Metropolit go UFA> and Price and Lapierre are RFA's? Plekanec will almost certainly go elsewhere – especially since next year the cap will most likely shrink. The Habs will simply not be able to afford him. Heck, with a shrinking cap, they won’t be able to afford Metropolit. The Gomez trade in by itself may undo all the other good work done by Gainey this offseason.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Gomez vs Koivu
An interesting comparison of the basic career stats of Scott Gomez vs those of Saku Koivu (full years only):
More or less identical. Gomez has a better plus/minus average -- the latter padded by his years playing the trap in New Jersey. Probably the only true advantage that Gomez has is that he gets injured less. But is that really worth a $7.357M/yr cap hit vs Koivu's $3.5M deal with Anaheim?
And for all the Guy Bertrand followers out there, Gomez doesn't speak a lick of French, in private or public.
More or less identical. Gomez has a better plus/minus average -- the latter padded by his years playing the trap in New Jersey. Probably the only true advantage that Gomez has is that he gets injured less. But is that really worth a $7.357M/yr cap hit vs Koivu's $3.5M deal with Anaheim?
And for all the Guy Bertrand followers out there, Gomez doesn't speak a lick of French, in private or public.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Pathetic
What exactly was Bob thinking? Maybe he wasn't. After all, the only UFA's he went after were Komisarek and Kovalev, probably the last ones most Habs fans would have selected, judging by the vitriol thrown their way on the way out. And then when Kovalev supposedly didn't get back to him on his offer he went hog wild on a bunch of second-tier UFA's. No Hossa. No Sedin twins. Gomez, Gionta and Cammalleri. How utterly underwhelming.
And it wouldn't have been so bad had he not sunk much of his future cap space into these three players. Three players who are notably not the "big centreman" he supposedly was looking for.
Certainly size and strength are overrated in today's NHL. Just ask the Red Wings or Penguins. But paying superstar money to non-superstars is simply insane. While the Habs might get under the cap this season, next year's cap is sure to shrink significantly -- at the same time that Bob needs to sign Lapierre and Price, among other RFA's.
This year? He'll be lucky if he gets $1.5M under the cap after signing all his RFA's, assuming he doesn't try to shore up his defense with another veteran dman (which might be needed). Next year, more cuts will be necessary to both get under the cap and keep Lapierre and Price.
But it wasn't all bad. Letting Komisarek walk was probably ok. The Leafs overpaid for a guy that still has a lot to learn about playing positional defense. But if he does learn that while playing with the Leafs, he'll be well worth it. Spacek is a decent replacement, but it would be nice if they got a right hander instead to round out the top 4 (Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik are all lefties).
Gionta was also a decent pickup, being the cheapest (and smallest) of the smurf-like overhaul. He's a desperately needed right handed shooting scoring forward. Only D'Agostini and Lapierre could be (generously) described as such.
As for the rest, here's what Habs GM would have done:
Gill? Sign Phillippe Boucher instead. He's not as big (who is?), but at least he won't be skirted around like a giant pine tree on a downhill slalom course -- like Gill often is. Boucher's got a wicked right handed shot, and would push for a top four spot. He probably could have been signed for the same amount too. The fact that he's French-Canadian is only a bonus.
Cammalleri? Re-sign Tanguay instead. Why exactly did we give up a first round pick to the Flames anyway? When he was healthy, he pushed the Habs to another level. And sure it was frustrating when he passed instead of shot, but he was one of the few Habs to at least create scoring chances. Whatever line he was on seemed to click. He would certainly have been cheaper, maybe half as much as the $6M/yr doled out to Cammalleri. And again, French-Canadian. Only a bonus.
Gomez? Re-sign Koivu, thereby not trading away our best defensive prospect (McDonagh) in the process. Higgins seemed to be headed to a third or fourth line, defensive-specialist role, so he wasn't a huge loss. But Koivu could have been had at much less than half the cap hit as Gomez, and for about the same production.
With the money saved by getting Koivu and Tanguay instead of Cammalleri and Gomez, Gainey could have easily gone after Hossa. Hossa's cap hit was only $5.23M, albeit over a much longer term (but we've gone over that before). Or save it and go after a big name in 2010 -- Jokinen? Marleau? Kovalchuk? All UFA's.
Instead, we will be treated to about the same on ice product as the last few years, just with more speed and less skill. How is that an improvement?
And it wouldn't have been so bad had he not sunk much of his future cap space into these three players. Three players who are notably not the "big centreman" he supposedly was looking for.
Certainly size and strength are overrated in today's NHL. Just ask the Red Wings or Penguins. But paying superstar money to non-superstars is simply insane. While the Habs might get under the cap this season, next year's cap is sure to shrink significantly -- at the same time that Bob needs to sign Lapierre and Price, among other RFA's.
This year? He'll be lucky if he gets $1.5M under the cap after signing all his RFA's, assuming he doesn't try to shore up his defense with another veteran dman (which might be needed). Next year, more cuts will be necessary to both get under the cap and keep Lapierre and Price.
But it wasn't all bad. Letting Komisarek walk was probably ok. The Leafs overpaid for a guy that still has a lot to learn about playing positional defense. But if he does learn that while playing with the Leafs, he'll be well worth it. Spacek is a decent replacement, but it would be nice if they got a right hander instead to round out the top 4 (Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik are all lefties).
Gionta was also a decent pickup, being the cheapest (and smallest) of the smurf-like overhaul. He's a desperately needed right handed shooting scoring forward. Only D'Agostini and Lapierre could be (generously) described as such.
As for the rest, here's what Habs GM would have done:
Gill? Sign Phillippe Boucher instead. He's not as big (who is?), but at least he won't be skirted around like a giant pine tree on a downhill slalom course -- like Gill often is. Boucher's got a wicked right handed shot, and would push for a top four spot. He probably could have been signed for the same amount too. The fact that he's French-Canadian is only a bonus.
Cammalleri? Re-sign Tanguay instead. Why exactly did we give up a first round pick to the Flames anyway? When he was healthy, he pushed the Habs to another level. And sure it was frustrating when he passed instead of shot, but he was one of the few Habs to at least create scoring chances. Whatever line he was on seemed to click. He would certainly have been cheaper, maybe half as much as the $6M/yr doled out to Cammalleri. And again, French-Canadian. Only a bonus.
Gomez? Re-sign Koivu, thereby not trading away our best defensive prospect (McDonagh) in the process. Higgins seemed to be headed to a third or fourth line, defensive-specialist role, so he wasn't a huge loss. But Koivu could have been had at much less than half the cap hit as Gomez, and for about the same production.
With the money saved by getting Koivu and Tanguay instead of Cammalleri and Gomez, Gainey could have easily gone after Hossa. Hossa's cap hit was only $5.23M, albeit over a much longer term (but we've gone over that before). Or save it and go after a big name in 2010 -- Jokinen? Marleau? Kovalchuk? All UFA's.
Instead, we will be treated to about the same on ice product as the last few years, just with more speed and less skill. How is that an improvement?
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