The Alex Effect

Pierre Gauthier signed Alexandre Picard and Alex Henry this week, further bolstering the depth on an already strong blueline. In fact, defense is where the Habs are strongest.

In so doing, Gauthier no doubt learned from the drubbing that Philly handed them in the playoffs. The Flyers were hardly a fashionable pick to win the East, esp when they were down to their third-string goalie, and with a couple of injured top-6 forwards.

But an incredibly strong blueline corps carried them through, and were inexplicably able to take two games from the Blackhawks (who had superior goaltending and more talented forwards).

The Habs already had a deep set of NHL-ready defensemen, but chose to let go of Bergeron and Mara. It was doubtful that either would settle for the two-way deals that Picard and Henry signed, enabling the Habs to leave them in Hamilton until they might be needed. Yannick Weber and/or Mathieu Carle would be the only Bulldogs the Habs had that might be able to make the jump. But Picard especially leapfrogs those two, and enables the Habs to allow the younger set to more fully develop at the AHL level.

Bergeron especially should find a home on an NHL team. His kind of PP prowess would be valuable to some teams, even if he has to play as a 6th or even a 4th line forward. With the revelation that was PK Subban, the Habs simply didn't need him anymore.

As far as when Picard (or Henry, should the Habs need more of an enforcer-type) might be called up, mark February 1 on your calendar. That's when Hamrlik's limited no-trade clause expires. The Habs will then be free to trade him to any team, not just the six he specified before then.

Hamrlik carries a significant cap hit, but his salary will be mostly paid by that time. His contract also expires at the end of the year, so he might make an attractive piece for a team making a playoff push but needing a #3 or #4 dman who can play on the 2nd PP unit and provide stable defensive help. They get the help without the lingering cap hit, and could be free to negotiate a more suitable contract for a defenseman of his age and skill set (somewhere below Spacek's $3.833M/yr).

And with the cap space gained by the Hamrlik trade, Gauthier could get a top 6 forward from another team looking to gain some value from a UFA they know they won't/can't resign. That is, assuming the Habs are still contenders at that point. If not, Hamrlik will probably just be traded for draft picks and/or prospects.

But if the Habs are contending, who might be that soon-to-be UFA top 6 forward? It could be Simon Gagne, if the Yzerman-makeover in Tampa Bay doesn't pay playoff dividends in it's first year. Granted he has a full no-trade clause, but he might just waive it for another chance at the Cup. The numbers work at least: he makes $250k less than Hamrlik.

Still all of this only works if O'Byrne is ready. O'Byrne will start the season as the 7th, but could conceivably take Hamrlik's slot by early next year. Gauthier could then and call up Picard (or Henry) as their 7th.

But if O'Byrne isn't ready, and the Habs are still playoff contenders, expect Hamrlik to stay put.

Blueline outlook: all about the PK

And we're not talking penalty kill. PK Subban's playoff performance was a revelation, mostly in the good sense. Sure he had some Bergeron-esque adventures in the defensive zone. But these are the sorts of mistakes you expect from a 20 year old rookie.

And for that reason, we may have seen the end of Marc Andre Bergeron's tenure with the Habs. After all, at the end of the season, the Habs were carrying nine defenseman on their roster. Most teams only carry seven.

With the blueline depth the Habs currently have in the minors (Yannick Weber, Mathieu Carle, Shawn Belle, etc), they ought to be safe with carrying only 7 defensemen. Paul Mara will almost certainly be one of the nine to go.

But I think MAB's value on the PP and relatively light cap hit will keep him around. Instead look for Gauthier to move one of the more highly paid defensemen, especially since additional, more pricey help up front will be needed and UFA's and RFA's need to be re-signed.

Hamrlik and Markov are the most highly paid and trading either could help clear some cap space. But don't expect Markov to be traded. He proved his value to the club -- when he was out, the Habs struggled. Hamrlik is much more expendable, but it might be difficult to get someone to take on his salary.

Still, he is a veteran presence, and is often given credit for tutoring Dion Phaneuf during his stint in Calgary. He could fit in well on a team that is a little young on their blueline, which probably also means they have the cap space to fit him too.

One team that comes to mind are the Anaheim Ducks. They lost Pronger and Beauchemin last season, and this season may lose Niedermayer to retirement and Ward to free agency. That leaves them with Visnovsky as their sole veteran presence along the blue line.

The Ducks are also interesting because they have a plethora of young, big, right-handed forwards, exactly what the Habs lack. It's unlikely that they would part with Perry, Getzlaf or Ryan, and definitely not straight up for Hamrlik. But maybe a Lupul, Bodie or Brown? Lupul brings some cap issues in return, so other players would have to be involved. But he also brings more proven scoring prowess than the other two.

Gauthier might also consider trading Gill or Spacek, the next two most highly paid dmen. But both bring a lot of value relative to their cap hits, as evidenced during the playoffs. Gorges and O'Byrne are young, cheap and may be the new shut down pair for years to come. They're untouchable.

So next year, the defensive pairings may very well look like the following:
Markov-O'Byrne
Spacek-Subban
Gorges-Gill
Bergeron

Next up: analyzing the forward line needs.