Not as bad as it would seem

Trading your playoff MVP for a pair of prospects may not seem like the most shrewd opening move for Pierre Gauthier’s first offseason as Habs GM. But as we noted in our analysis of the Habs’ goaltending needs, small goalies like Halak were bound to be a bit of a risk.

So while Halak may be worth more than two (highly rated) prospects, he also might be worth less. At least Gauthier covered his bets by trading him to a Western Conference team, where Halak would be less likely to haunt his former team, either in the regular season or the playoffs.

And Gauthier did address some needs. The Habs are desperate for size up front, some scoring punch, and right handed shots. It’s too bad that all couldn’t be combined in the same player: if Ellers had Schultz’s size, grit and right handed shot, this would have been a much better deal. But Ellers may be the insurance Gauthier needs if he can’t sign Plekanec. Or if Gauthier can’t afford Plekanec by going after a big fish like Patrick Marleau instead. But the most likely reason for the trade is not the players received, but the cap space gained to both sign Plekanec and keep Hamrlik.

As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.

And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.

Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.

And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.

Blueline outlook: all about the PK

And we're not talking penalty kill. PK Subban's playoff performance was a revelation, mostly in the good sense. Sure he had some Bergeron-esque adventures in the defensive zone. But these are the sorts of mistakes you expect from a 20 year old rookie.

And for that reason, we may have seen the end of Marc Andre Bergeron's tenure with the Habs. After all, at the end of the season, the Habs were carrying nine defenseman on their roster. Most teams only carry seven.

With the blueline depth the Habs currently have in the minors (Yannick Weber, Mathieu Carle, Shawn Belle, etc), they ought to be safe with carrying only 7 defensemen. Paul Mara will almost certainly be one of the nine to go.

But I think MAB's value on the PP and relatively light cap hit will keep him around. Instead look for Gauthier to move one of the more highly paid defensemen, especially since additional, more pricey help up front will be needed and UFA's and RFA's need to be re-signed.

Hamrlik and Markov are the most highly paid and trading either could help clear some cap space. But don't expect Markov to be traded. He proved his value to the club -- when he was out, the Habs struggled. Hamrlik is much more expendable, but it might be difficult to get someone to take on his salary.

Still, he is a veteran presence, and is often given credit for tutoring Dion Phaneuf during his stint in Calgary. He could fit in well on a team that is a little young on their blueline, which probably also means they have the cap space to fit him too.

One team that comes to mind are the Anaheim Ducks. They lost Pronger and Beauchemin last season, and this season may lose Niedermayer to retirement and Ward to free agency. That leaves them with Visnovsky as their sole veteran presence along the blue line.

The Ducks are also interesting because they have a plethora of young, big, right-handed forwards, exactly what the Habs lack. It's unlikely that they would part with Perry, Getzlaf or Ryan, and definitely not straight up for Hamrlik. But maybe a Lupul, Bodie or Brown? Lupul brings some cap issues in return, so other players would have to be involved. But he also brings more proven scoring prowess than the other two.

Gauthier might also consider trading Gill or Spacek, the next two most highly paid dmen. But both bring a lot of value relative to their cap hits, as evidenced during the playoffs. Gorges and O'Byrne are young, cheap and may be the new shut down pair for years to come. They're untouchable.

So next year, the defensive pairings may very well look like the following:
Markov-O'Byrne
Spacek-Subban
Gorges-Gill
Bergeron

Next up: analyzing the forward line needs.

Post mortem

Well, that was a helluva ride. Given that they were the 16th seed, rising to the top four is well beyond anyone's expectations. Still, there is room to improve and the deep run into the playoffs exposed this team's strengths and weaknesses.

To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:


The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.

With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.


The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.

Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.

Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.

Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.


The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak

Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.

It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.

Trade deadline 2010

As much as Gomez's contract is the single biggest albatross on the books right now, he probably won't be traded. Not with the Habs contending for a playoff spot, and Gomez dutifully (albeit expensively) centering the second line. Neither will Halak, not given his stellar clutch performances in the Olympics -- that kind of play will be needed in the next 20 games and come April.

No, there is another player who is 1) garnering interest; 2) will free up cap space for an additional acquisition this season; and 3) free up space for next season to sign various RFA's as well as Plekanec next year. That player is Hal Gill.

Gill's value in any one game can be correlated in inverse proportion to the number of skaters on the ice: 5-on-5, he's a liability; 5-on-3, his long reach can take away an entire side of of the ice. Further, his inability to skate is less evident in short-handed situations, esp when down 2 men. During those times, one needs positioning, reach and size more than foot speed.

And for this reason, the Penguins want him back -- and presumably others in the playoff hunt who need help on the PK. The Habs would do well to trade him. His $2.25M cap hit isn't much, but when added with the others that will come off the books next summer, it might be just enough to squeeze Plekanec in, as well as the minor raises due to various RFA's.

Gill may also be expendable because of the play of PK Subban. In his brief stint, Subban showed he was ready for the NHL. He might not be able to kill penalties like Gill, but his offensive prowess may more than offset that. Plus, on the odd occasion he did get beat on the defensive end, he quickly hustled back to get back in position.

There are other Habs who also may be expendable because of Subban, namely Bergeron and Mara. Bergeron would gain more interest because of his versatility and howitzer of a shot.

In return the Habs should be looking for more secondary scoring. When all four lines are clicking, an opposing coach will have difficulty determining matchups (see Canada's 4 game win streak to end the Olympics). The Plekanec and Gomez lines are settled, esp when Andrei Kostitsyn gets back. The fourth line could be comprised of Darche, Metropolit and Lapierre -- size, some speed and lots of grit. That leaves Moen, Sergei Kostitsyn and Dominic Moore for the third line.

While that line is defensively capable, it lacks much scoring punch -- aside from Kostitsyn. So it would be nice to ship Moore or Moen off for an upgrade on the offensive end, preferably someone with a right handed shot to balance out that line. And some size would be nice too.

That's a tall order, admittedly. But some combination of Gill, Mara, Bergeron and/or Moore (and maybe some prospects) could do the trick.