Pierre Gauthier signed Alexandre Picard and Alex Henry this week, further bolstering the depth on an already strong blueline. In fact, defense is where the Habs are strongest.
In so doing, Gauthier no doubt learned from the drubbing that Philly handed them in the playoffs. The Flyers were hardly a fashionable pick to win the East, esp when they were down to their third-string goalie, and with a couple of injured top-6 forwards.
But an incredibly strong blueline corps carried them through, and were inexplicably able to take two games from the Blackhawks (who had superior goaltending and more talented forwards).
The Habs already had a deep set of NHL-ready defensemen, but chose to let go of Bergeron and Mara. It was doubtful that either would settle for the two-way deals that Picard and Henry signed, enabling the Habs to leave them in Hamilton until they might be needed. Yannick Weber and/or Mathieu Carle would be the only Bulldogs the Habs had that might be able to make the jump. But Picard especially leapfrogs those two, and enables the Habs to allow the younger set to more fully develop at the AHL level.
Bergeron especially should find a home on an NHL team. His kind of PP prowess would be valuable to some teams, even if he has to play as a 6th or even a 4th line forward. With the revelation that was PK Subban, the Habs simply didn't need him anymore.
As far as when Picard (or Henry, should the Habs need more of an enforcer-type) might be called up, mark February 1 on your calendar. That's when Hamrlik's limited no-trade clause expires. The Habs will then be free to trade him to any team, not just the six he specified before then.
Hamrlik carries a significant cap hit, but his salary will be mostly paid by that time. His contract also expires at the end of the year, so he might make an attractive piece for a team making a playoff push but needing a #3 or #4 dman who can play on the 2nd PP unit and provide stable defensive help. They get the help without the lingering cap hit, and could be free to negotiate a more suitable contract for a defenseman of his age and skill set (somewhere below Spacek's $3.833M/yr).
And with the cap space gained by the Hamrlik trade, Gauthier could get a top 6 forward from another team looking to gain some value from a UFA they know they won't/can't resign. That is, assuming the Habs are still contenders at that point. If not, Hamrlik will probably just be traded for draft picks and/or prospects.
But if the Habs are contending, who might be that soon-to-be UFA top 6 forward? It could be Simon Gagne, if the Yzerman-makeover in Tampa Bay doesn't pay playoff dividends in it's first year. Granted he has a full no-trade clause, but he might just waive it for another chance at the Cup. The numbers work at least: he makes $250k less than Hamrlik.
Still all of this only works if O'Byrne is ready. O'Byrne will start the season as the 7th, but could conceivably take Hamrlik's slot by early next year. Gauthier could then and call up Picard (or Henry) as their 7th.
But if O'Byrne isn't ready, and the Habs are still playoff contenders, expect Hamrlik to stay put.
Showing posts with label Hamrlik. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hamrlik. Show all posts
Friday, July 30, 2010
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Not as bad as it would seem
Trading your playoff MVP for a pair of prospects may not seem like the most shrewd opening move for Pierre Gauthier’s first offseason as Habs GM. But as we noted in our analysis of the Habs’ goaltending needs, small goalies like Halak were bound to be a bit of a risk. So while Halak may be worth more than two (highly rated) prospects, he also might be worth less. At least Gauthier covered his bets by trading him to a Western Conference team, where Halak would be less likely to haunt his former team, either in the regular season or the playoffs. And Gauthier did address some needs. The Habs are desperate for size up front, some scoring punch, and right handed shots. It’s too bad that all couldn’t be combined in the same player: if Ellers had Schultz’s size, grit and right handed shot, this would have been a much better deal. But Ellers may be the insurance Gauthier needs if he can’t sign Plekanec. Or if Gauthier can’t afford Plekanec by going after a big fish like Patrick Marleau instead. But the most likely reason for the trade is not the players received, but the cap space gained to both sign Plekanec and keep Hamrlik.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Post mortem
Well, that was a helluva ride. Given that they were the 16th seed, rising to the top four is well beyond anyone's expectations. Still, there is room to improve and the deep run into the playoffs exposed this team's strengths and weaknesses.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Roster moves: Mike Komisarek
The last post dealt with the goaltending situation. Continuing on out from the net, the blueline makeover is next. This one is particularly challenging, and perhaps where Gainey has the most work to do.
Only three regulars -- Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik -- are under contract next year. This is a fairly solid core to build around: able to play good defense, gets the puck out of the defensive zone quickly and sets up forwards for scoring opportunities. Markov is clearly the best of the three, and probably the best defenseman to play for the Habs in a number of years.
The Habs rash of injuries last year proved that blueline depth is critical. Hockey is a defensive sport, and depth at goaltending and defense are critical. But the Habs can't rely on four or five of their prospects to fill the void either, as impressive as they are (O'Byrne, Weber, Carle, and Subban, to name a few). While it's nice to get some of the youngsters some much needed NHL ice time, at most only one or two can expect regular play with the big club-- and maybe only as part of the third pairing, lining up against the opposition's third and fourth lines.
Defense is simply much more difficult to play than offense. It is often more a matter of experience and good habits, and less instinct and skill. Most successful defensemen are not born, but rely on training and practice, doing the same thing over and over again until the memory is burned into every muscle. Take Nick Lidstrom. He might be the best in the business -- at 39 years old! Or his teammate, Chris Chelios: 47 years old, and taking regular shifts during these playoffs. 18 year old forwards are common but 18 year old defensemen are not.
One defenseman who did make the jump earlier than most was Mike Komisarek. He has done reasonably well as a young defenseman, but is still learning the game. He will often go for the big check, get tangled up and then ends up out of position. He also often fails to trust or communicate with his defensive partner, turning two-on-twos into two-on-ones and trying to play the pass between the opposing forwards.
The Habs know this, and won't offer him huge money. With the amount of players they need to re-sign, they can't afford to anyway. A long term contract would be justifiable, maybe as long as 10 years, but average somewhere between $4M/year and $5M/year. Markov should be the highest paid defenseman on the team, and his deal averages $5.75M/year (and only 4 years?!).
But Komisarek would be a fool to try to sign before he becomes goes UFA on July 1. If he waits, he will almost certainly get a huge contract from one of the struggling U.S. teams that needs to fill seats -- and Big K's brand of hockey fills seats. The bet here is that the Islanders will throw a front loaded, 15-year/$90M contract at him. He's a Long Island boy after all, and what better way for the Islanders to resurrect their moribund franchise than by signing one of their own. He would make an excellent partner for the left handed, offensively minded, smallish and not-very-physical Mark Streit.
Most of all the Islanders need to sell tickets. Look at what overpaying for Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell did for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. They ended up first in the league in attendance, averaging 22,247 per home game. The previous year they were 19th, averaging only 16,814. Splashy, big ticket free agent signings are expensive, but effective marketing. There might not be a better, quicker way of proving to the fans that you are committed to winning.
Even if Komisarek should opt for free agency, all is not lost for the Habs. Markov, Hamrlik and Gorges can fill three of the top four slots. Indeed, Gorges did an admirable job filling in while Big K was injured this year. Another four or five blueliners would be needed. One or two of those spots could be filled by one of the Bulldog regulars from last year. That leaves the need to sign three UFA's.
Next post: the rest of the Habs 2009-10 defensive corps.
Only three regulars -- Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik -- are under contract next year. This is a fairly solid core to build around: able to play good defense, gets the puck out of the defensive zone quickly and sets up forwards for scoring opportunities. Markov is clearly the best of the three, and probably the best defenseman to play for the Habs in a number of years.
The Habs rash of injuries last year proved that blueline depth is critical. Hockey is a defensive sport, and depth at goaltending and defense are critical. But the Habs can't rely on four or five of their prospects to fill the void either, as impressive as they are (O'Byrne, Weber, Carle, and Subban, to name a few). While it's nice to get some of the youngsters some much needed NHL ice time, at most only one or two can expect regular play with the big club-- and maybe only as part of the third pairing, lining up against the opposition's third and fourth lines.
Defense is simply much more difficult to play than offense. It is often more a matter of experience and good habits, and less instinct and skill. Most successful defensemen are not born, but rely on training and practice, doing the same thing over and over again until the memory is burned into every muscle. Take Nick Lidstrom. He might be the best in the business -- at 39 years old! Or his teammate, Chris Chelios: 47 years old, and taking regular shifts during these playoffs. 18 year old forwards are common but 18 year old defensemen are not.
One defenseman who did make the jump earlier than most was Mike Komisarek. He has done reasonably well as a young defenseman, but is still learning the game. He will often go for the big check, get tangled up and then ends up out of position. He also often fails to trust or communicate with his defensive partner, turning two-on-twos into two-on-ones and trying to play the pass between the opposing forwards.
The Habs know this, and won't offer him huge money. With the amount of players they need to re-sign, they can't afford to anyway. A long term contract would be justifiable, maybe as long as 10 years, but average somewhere between $4M/year and $5M/year. Markov should be the highest paid defenseman on the team, and his deal averages $5.75M/year (and only 4 years?!).
But Komisarek would be a fool to try to sign before he becomes goes UFA on July 1. If he waits, he will almost certainly get a huge contract from one of the struggling U.S. teams that needs to fill seats -- and Big K's brand of hockey fills seats. The bet here is that the Islanders will throw a front loaded, 15-year/$90M contract at him. He's a Long Island boy after all, and what better way for the Islanders to resurrect their moribund franchise than by signing one of their own. He would make an excellent partner for the left handed, offensively minded, smallish and not-very-physical Mark Streit.
Most of all the Islanders need to sell tickets. Look at what overpaying for Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell did for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. They ended up first in the league in attendance, averaging 22,247 per home game. The previous year they were 19th, averaging only 16,814. Splashy, big ticket free agent signings are expensive, but effective marketing. There might not be a better, quicker way of proving to the fans that you are committed to winning.
Even if Komisarek should opt for free agency, all is not lost for the Habs. Markov, Hamrlik and Gorges can fill three of the top four slots. Indeed, Gorges did an admirable job filling in while Big K was injured this year. Another four or five blueliners would be needed. One or two of those spots could be filled by one of the Bulldog regulars from last year. That leaves the need to sign three UFA's.
Next post: the rest of the Habs 2009-10 defensive corps.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Who needs UFA's anyway?
As mentioned in the last post, the Habs' season high 3 game losing streak coincided more or less with the absence of Roman Hamrlik.
But now that both Hamrlik and O'Byrne are back, Carbo has a different problem: where to play all his dmen. If you include Streit and Dandenault, the Habs have 9 blueliners on their active roster. Of course, Dandy has played right wing all season, but not very successfully. He's a team worst -12.
But it's Carbo's healthy scratches from two of the past three games that are most interesting: Smolinski, Kostopolous and Brisebois. Kostopolous and Smolinski were supposed to replace Mike Johnson and Radek Bonk in the lineup, and were paid more together than both Johnson and Bonk ultimately received from St. Louis and Nashville respectively. Brisebois provided veteran blueline insurance, presumably until O'Byrne was ready to come up.
The most interesting part is that all were UFA signings this year. And yet all are sitting in the press box, and for good reason. Smolinski was centering the fourth line, more or less until Begin got back. Smolinski replaced Begin in the last game against the Penguins, coincidentally the same time the Habs 4 game win streak was snapped. Presumably Smolinski played because of Begin's atrocious faceoff percentage this year (28.8%). But Begin's pitbull style of forechecking is sorely needed by the Habs. Maybe only Komisarek and Bouillon hit as frequently and ferociously, and that's only in the defensive end.
Brisebois was out as soon as Hamrlik came back. But his real replacement was O'Byrne, who can really skate well for a big man. And, of course, he hits. Hard. This gives Carbo some real physical presence on each of his blueline combinations.
Kostopolous is the hardest to figure out why he is sitting. One could argue that Ryder has taken his spot on the right wing, but Ryder never deserved to be benched. Kostopolous' real replacement is Dandenault, who has more points (12 to K's 9) but a worse +/- (-12 to K's -8). Carbo has Dandy playing on a line with Latendresse centered by Begin or Smolinski, the most likely line where Kostopolous would play.
In a Theory of Ice post from last season, e recounted a conversation with an old-time Habs fan who more or less said that the Habs don't buy UFA's. They grow their own talent the old-fashioned way. There certainly is an appeal to that, as we can follow their progress from fresh-faced draftee to uncertain rookie to veteran playmaker. And the Habs' surprising showing this year is in no small part due to the play of their youngsters, players who have been drafted and groomed by Habs GM's.
But the UFA's? Apart from the very big exception of Roman Hamrlik (and his very big contract), they haven't contributed much at all.
Now that's not to say that the Habs can continue going to the well for all their roster needs. No doubt they are deep on the blue line (O'Byrne, Valentenko, Emelin) and between the pipes (Price, Halak, Danis). But if they want to move forward, they need some help on the scoring end, especially to help Carbo fully realize his strategy of throwing out three full fledged scoring lines. And with the upcoming trade deadline, look for Gainey to move one or more of the above mentioned assets for a high end scoring threat -- more on this in the next post.
But now that both Hamrlik and O'Byrne are back, Carbo has a different problem: where to play all his dmen. If you include Streit and Dandenault, the Habs have 9 blueliners on their active roster. Of course, Dandy has played right wing all season, but not very successfully. He's a team worst -12.
But it's Carbo's healthy scratches from two of the past three games that are most interesting: Smolinski, Kostopolous and Brisebois. Kostopolous and Smolinski were supposed to replace Mike Johnson and Radek Bonk in the lineup, and were paid more together than both Johnson and Bonk ultimately received from St. Louis and Nashville respectively. Brisebois provided veteran blueline insurance, presumably until O'Byrne was ready to come up.
The most interesting part is that all were UFA signings this year. And yet all are sitting in the press box, and for good reason. Smolinski was centering the fourth line, more or less until Begin got back. Smolinski replaced Begin in the last game against the Penguins, coincidentally the same time the Habs 4 game win streak was snapped. Presumably Smolinski played because of Begin's atrocious faceoff percentage this year (28.8%). But Begin's pitbull style of forechecking is sorely needed by the Habs. Maybe only Komisarek and Bouillon hit as frequently and ferociously, and that's only in the defensive end.
Brisebois was out as soon as Hamrlik came back. But his real replacement was O'Byrne, who can really skate well for a big man. And, of course, he hits. Hard. This gives Carbo some real physical presence on each of his blueline combinations.
Kostopolous is the hardest to figure out why he is sitting. One could argue that Ryder has taken his spot on the right wing, but Ryder never deserved to be benched. Kostopolous' real replacement is Dandenault, who has more points (12 to K's 9) but a worse +/- (-12 to K's -8). Carbo has Dandy playing on a line with Latendresse centered by Begin or Smolinski, the most likely line where Kostopolous would play.
In a Theory of Ice post from last season, e recounted a conversation with an old-time Habs fan who more or less said that the Habs don't buy UFA's. They grow their own talent the old-fashioned way. There certainly is an appeal to that, as we can follow their progress from fresh-faced draftee to uncertain rookie to veteran playmaker. And the Habs' surprising showing this year is in no small part due to the play of their youngsters, players who have been drafted and groomed by Habs GM's.
But the UFA's? Apart from the very big exception of Roman Hamrlik (and his very big contract), they haven't contributed much at all.
Now that's not to say that the Habs can continue going to the well for all their roster needs. No doubt they are deep on the blue line (O'Byrne, Valentenko, Emelin) and between the pipes (Price, Halak, Danis). But if they want to move forward, they need some help on the scoring end, especially to help Carbo fully realize his strategy of throwing out three full fledged scoring lines. And with the upcoming trade deadline, look for Gainey to move one or more of the above mentioned assets for a high end scoring threat -- more on this in the next post.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
UFA MVP?
The Habs recent success (season high 4 game win streak) probably has much to do with the team's depth and health. This win streak follows a season high 3 game losing streak, one in which their frequent defensive lapses showed how much they missed Roman Hamrlik. He has settled in nicely as the #3 blueliner, and has showed his versatility in pairing up with veteran playmakers Patrice Brisebois (playing on the right) and Mark Streit (playing on the left), as well as the young rookie Ryan O'Byrne.
Hamrlik was gone not because of injury but because of some strange flu-like illness that also left him with an undiagnosed rash (TMI?). Last season, a flu bug spread through the clubhouse, contributing greatly to the Habs' midseason slide. So despite Hamrlik's value, he was quarantined from the rest of the team until he got better.
And not a moment too soon. Even though he is not the club's best dman (that honor would go to Markov or maybe even Komisarek), his replacement -- Patrice Brisebois -- was not up to the task. Brisebois slide into Hamrlik's spot, and promptly showed why he was run out of town a few years ago.
With O'Byrne still on the mend with his broken hand, Carbo didn't have much choice. So he tried juggling his defensive combinations, much like he often juggles his forwards. As the best defensive dman, Komisarek ended up double shifting a lot. That didn't seem to work well: in the Habs' 6-1 shellacking by Ottawa, Komisarek was -3. When was the last time that has ever happened?
So Hamrlik goes and the Habs lose 3 in row. He returns and they've now won 4 in a row. Does this mean that Hamrlik is the team MVP? Hardly. But he does fill a valuable role on the team, being the shutdown dman on the second pairing. And while playing with O'Byrne, he plays a similar mentoring role as in Calgary with Dion Phaneuf. I would think that Carbo would also have a difficult time replacing Bouillon, Markov or Komisarek should any of them be unavailable.
But it does mean that Hamrlik's signing was well worth the big money paid to him -- second highest on the team, only behind Andrei Markov. His stats bear it out too: among full time dmen, only second to Markov in points and only second to Komisarek in plus/minus.
Most interestingly, the Habs' recent streaks also prove that maybe they don't need UFA's. Beyond Hamrlik anyway. This post has gone on too long already, so let's take that up next time.
Hamrlik was gone not because of injury but because of some strange flu-like illness that also left him with an undiagnosed rash (TMI?). Last season, a flu bug spread through the clubhouse, contributing greatly to the Habs' midseason slide. So despite Hamrlik's value, he was quarantined from the rest of the team until he got better.
And not a moment too soon. Even though he is not the club's best dman (that honor would go to Markov or maybe even Komisarek), his replacement -- Patrice Brisebois -- was not up to the task. Brisebois slide into Hamrlik's spot, and promptly showed why he was run out of town a few years ago.
With O'Byrne still on the mend with his broken hand, Carbo didn't have much choice. So he tried juggling his defensive combinations, much like he often juggles his forwards. As the best defensive dman, Komisarek ended up double shifting a lot. That didn't seem to work well: in the Habs' 6-1 shellacking by Ottawa, Komisarek was -3. When was the last time that has ever happened?
So Hamrlik goes and the Habs lose 3 in row. He returns and they've now won 4 in a row. Does this mean that Hamrlik is the team MVP? Hardly. But he does fill a valuable role on the team, being the shutdown dman on the second pairing. And while playing with O'Byrne, he plays a similar mentoring role as in Calgary with Dion Phaneuf. I would think that Carbo would also have a difficult time replacing Bouillon, Markov or Komisarek should any of them be unavailable.
But it does mean that Hamrlik's signing was well worth the big money paid to him -- second highest on the team, only behind Andrei Markov. His stats bear it out too: among full time dmen, only second to Markov in points and only second to Komisarek in plus/minus.
Most interestingly, the Habs' recent streaks also prove that maybe they don't need UFA's. Beyond Hamrlik anyway. This post has gone on too long already, so let's take that up next time.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Keeping an Even Keel
I think the title of this post is some sort of sailing term, whereby a sailboat is kept from rocking to and fro by a steady hand upon the keel. Whatever that is.
A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.
To be sure, it certainly does look good:
But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.
Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:
But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.
But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.
Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.
A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.
To be sure, it certainly does look good:
- #1 power play in the land
- #5 in the Hab-hating TSN power ranking
- Points all around, sprinkled like fairy dust upon checking line forward and highly paid sniper alike.
- Plekanec and Kovalev making beautiful plays, instead of one mystifying the other like last year.
- Kovalev still on pace for a 40 goal season, 1/8 of the way through the campaign.
- Andrei Markov: quite simply, the bargain of the year. Second in scoring, multiple game winning goals, and ice time leader. All for millions less than Zdeno Chara.
- Youngsters Grabovski and especially Chipchura looking right at home in the NHL.
- Even Kostopolous turning his play around, without benefit of a benching.
- Mathieu Dandenault, opportunistic forechecker extraordinaire? May the surprises never cease, at least of the pleasant variety.
But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.
Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:
- Habs blow 3-0 lead over Pittsburgh, before Price puts the entire team on his back and wins in the shootout.
- Habs take 5-1 lead over Carolina, but then let them creep back to within two goals before sealing it with the empty netter.
- In Ottawa, they manage to scramble back to tie it at 3-3, but then give it away seconds later with 6 mins left in the game.
- Habs have a slight 1-0 lead over Florida, but are otherwise dominating. They allow a late game tying goal, and then lost in the shootout.
- Habs take 3-1 lead over Toronto, but end up losing in OT to the Leafs of all teams. Ugh.
But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.
But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.
Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Blueliners: the second pairing
I better pick up the pace here, seeing as the new season is just around the corner. No more long and rambling introductions; lets get straight to brass tacks (whatever that means): Guy and Bob will go with Hamrlik and Streit for their second pairing. Both are left handed, but the word is that Hamrlik is almost as good on his backhand as on his forehand. So he could play either side. That ought to give Bob and Carbo some options.
We all know Hamrlik is going to make the team and play on the second pairing. No surprise there. He's good, and is probably deserving of his fat contract, but still won't break up the excellent first tandem we have in Markov-Komisarek.
Streit, on the other hand, has been quite a revelation in his short tenure with the Habs. When he broke in a couple of years ago, he looked really nervous and lacked confidence. Then he went to the Olympics. I think he even captained the team. The same team that started off really hot, losing only to Finland in the preliminary round.
He came back seemingly reinvigorated and full of confidence. I remember one game where an opposing forward had an unimpeded breakaway. But Streit caught up, lunged and dove on the ice, deftly swatting the puck off the other guy's stick without touching him. It was brilliant.
I thought he had a chance last year too, but with the experience of Rivet, Souray, Komisarek, Markov, Bouillon and Dandenault all ahead of him, it was a tough lineup to crack. But he stuck with it, eventually playing left wing of all things, even on Saku's line. And he didn't fare too badly, ultimately netting 10 goals and 26 assists.
So this year ought to be his year. He's paid his dues. And Hamrlik is the best partner for him. He's big and he hits -- from what I've heard anyway. Streit can skate and pass as well as anyone, but his size has always been a limitation. Hamrlik, even though left handed, is apparently almost as good on his forehand as his back hand. Streit could then play the left side, with Hamrlik on the right.
Streit's offensive skills set him up to be an ideal PP QB. I wouldn't be surprised if he pairs with Markov on the first unit, as Komisarek might not be quite ready to be setting up Markov's slapshot with some nifty passes. I love big Mike, but O is not his forte.
Another reason to root for Mark Streit? Apparently he took less money to play with the Habs than he would have made had he remained in Europe. He wants to play with and compete against the best. This isn't about money for him.
Now isn't that refreshing?
We all know Hamrlik is going to make the team and play on the second pairing. No surprise there. He's good, and is probably deserving of his fat contract, but still won't break up the excellent first tandem we have in Markov-Komisarek.
Streit, on the other hand, has been quite a revelation in his short tenure with the Habs. When he broke in a couple of years ago, he looked really nervous and lacked confidence. Then he went to the Olympics. I think he even captained the team. The same team that started off really hot, losing only to Finland in the preliminary round.
He came back seemingly reinvigorated and full of confidence. I remember one game where an opposing forward had an unimpeded breakaway. But Streit caught up, lunged and dove on the ice, deftly swatting the puck off the other guy's stick without touching him. It was brilliant.
I thought he had a chance last year too, but with the experience of Rivet, Souray, Komisarek, Markov, Bouillon and Dandenault all ahead of him, it was a tough lineup to crack. But he stuck with it, eventually playing left wing of all things, even on Saku's line. And he didn't fare too badly, ultimately netting 10 goals and 26 assists.
So this year ought to be his year. He's paid his dues. And Hamrlik is the best partner for him. He's big and he hits -- from what I've heard anyway. Streit can skate and pass as well as anyone, but his size has always been a limitation. Hamrlik, even though left handed, is apparently almost as good on his forehand as his back hand. Streit could then play the left side, with Hamrlik on the right.
Streit's offensive skills set him up to be an ideal PP QB. I wouldn't be surprised if he pairs with Markov on the first unit, as Komisarek might not be quite ready to be setting up Markov's slapshot with some nifty passes. I love big Mike, but O is not his forte.
Another reason to root for Mark Streit? Apparently he took less money to play with the Habs than he would have made had he remained in Europe. He wants to play with and compete against the best. This isn't about money for him.
Now isn't that refreshing?
Blueliners: the third pairing
Ok, back to the breakdown of the (predicted) Habs' roster for this upcoming campaign. We've covered netminders and backup dmen. Now on to the third pairing. This one was a little difficult, given how well O'Byrne played in Hamilton this year, and the strong showing he's giving in pre-season. The Habs definitely need another hard hitting dman, to go along with new alternate captain Mike Komisarek.
O'Byrne is also a righty, and that would help balance out the Habs' defensive corps. Of the candidates with a realistic shot at making the club, only Dandenault, Komisarek and Brisebois are right handed. Brisebois will make the club but won't be playing regularly.
So that leaves a spot open, right?
I don't think so. Like I said before, I think the Habs are going with a veteran lineup, esp along the blueline. They signed two veterans in Hamrlik and Brisebois, and another two (Streit and Dandenault) have the flexibility to play a forward slot as well. Given the Habs' injury and illness woes last season, that is much needed flexibility.
So I'm sticking with Dandenault and Bouillon as the third pairing. Both had their struggles last year, but so did the entire team. And with the depth on defense this year, they should only need to play against third and fourth liners.
Dandenault and Bouillon have to know the heat is on, what with younger and perhaps hungrier players waiting for their shot (Gorges and O'Byrne especially). So this is their last shot.
Not exactly a rousing endorsement. And I admit that I've got a bit of a soft spot for the two, esp Bouillon. He leaves it all on the ice, night in and night out. And Dandenault does what is asked of him, even playing O. If Kovalev had this kind of heart, the Habs wouldn't have been watching the playoffs from home last year.
O'Byrne is also a righty, and that would help balance out the Habs' defensive corps. Of the candidates with a realistic shot at making the club, only Dandenault, Komisarek and Brisebois are right handed. Brisebois will make the club but won't be playing regularly.
So that leaves a spot open, right?
I don't think so. Like I said before, I think the Habs are going with a veteran lineup, esp along the blueline. They signed two veterans in Hamrlik and Brisebois, and another two (Streit and Dandenault) have the flexibility to play a forward slot as well. Given the Habs' injury and illness woes last season, that is much needed flexibility.
So I'm sticking with Dandenault and Bouillon as the third pairing. Both had their struggles last year, but so did the entire team. And with the depth on defense this year, they should only need to play against third and fourth liners.
Dandenault and Bouillon have to know the heat is on, what with younger and perhaps hungrier players waiting for their shot (Gorges and O'Byrne especially). So this is their last shot.
Not exactly a rousing endorsement. And I admit that I've got a bit of a soft spot for the two, esp Bouillon. He leaves it all on the ice, night in and night out. And Dandenault does what is asked of him, even playing O. If Kovalev had this kind of heart, the Habs wouldn't have been watching the playoffs from home last year.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Righties and Lefties
Ok, one more tangent before I dive into the rest of the much anticipated dissection of the Habs' lineup. I promise. Ok, I don't promise. But I'll try.
When looking at lineups, I get a little obsessive about who is right handed and who is left handed. For good reason, at least as far as obsessions go. The Habs, like many teams, are a little heavy with left handers (more on that later). That's not good, as on any one forward line, or any one defensive pairing, you need a balance of lefties and righties.
Here's why: most players shoot and pass best on their forehand. Some are so dependent on one side, that they'll go to illegal lengths to change the curve of their stick. How many times have you seen someone set up perfectly on one side of the net, with both goalie and defenseman out of position? But he doesn't shoot. No, he wastes precious milliseconds spinning to his forehand to get a better shot. In some cases, that's all the goalie or defenseman needs to get back in position. Or if he does try to get off a backhander, it's so weak that it'd be lucky to go in the general direction of the net.
So for forwards, it's just a matter of odds. Not everyone is going to get a puck on their forehand in the offensive zone, even if you had all left-handed left wingers and right-handed right wingers. But if each line could have just one right hander, that'd be preferable, esp on the penalty kill.
But for blueliners, it's a necessity. It's just much easier to catch the puck hurtling around the boards on your forehand. And not just because that's the side where they're most comfortable. But also because the curve of the blade is better suited to catch the puck.
Bob realizes much the same thing. Look at who he has picked up the past couple of years: Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov, Aaron Downey, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous, and Brian Smolinski. All right handers. Even Hamrlik's signing could be attributed in part to restoring balance, as he's supposedly as good on his forehand as his backhand. In fact these types of players are preferable, as they aren't dependent on one side alone.
And Carbo has taken advantage of the rebalancing, esp with his defensive pairings. Last year, he paired up his dmen more or less like this (on the left are the lefties, the right are the righties):
Markov(L) - Komisarek(R)
Souray(L) - Rivet(R)
Bouillon(L) - Dandenault(R)
So Hamrlik's ambidextrous ability hasn't taken Souray's spot so much as Rivet's. I'll argue (later) that Streit will be the one to take Souray's spot in the top 4.
But why so many left handers? When I was growing up, I was always told to play with the stick that seemed most natural. For whatever reason, I felt most comfortable with the left handed sticks -- even though I wrote right handed, threw right handed, picked my nose right handed. Actually the latter was more of an ambidextrous activity, but you get my meaning.
I'm guessing that for whatever reason, most players feel comfortable from the left side. I doubt it has anything to do with the dominant side for other activities, ie, if you write right handed, then you play hockey left handed. From what I know only 10% of the world is left hand dominant, so hockey would have dreadfully few right handers. So how does it break down? Who knows?
When looking at lineups, I get a little obsessive about who is right handed and who is left handed. For good reason, at least as far as obsessions go. The Habs, like many teams, are a little heavy with left handers (more on that later). That's not good, as on any one forward line, or any one defensive pairing, you need a balance of lefties and righties.
Here's why: most players shoot and pass best on their forehand. Some are so dependent on one side, that they'll go to illegal lengths to change the curve of their stick. How many times have you seen someone set up perfectly on one side of the net, with both goalie and defenseman out of position? But he doesn't shoot. No, he wastes precious milliseconds spinning to his forehand to get a better shot. In some cases, that's all the goalie or defenseman needs to get back in position. Or if he does try to get off a backhander, it's so weak that it'd be lucky to go in the general direction of the net.
So for forwards, it's just a matter of odds. Not everyone is going to get a puck on their forehand in the offensive zone, even if you had all left-handed left wingers and right-handed right wingers. But if each line could have just one right hander, that'd be preferable, esp on the penalty kill.
But for blueliners, it's a necessity. It's just much easier to catch the puck hurtling around the boards on your forehand. And not just because that's the side where they're most comfortable. But also because the curve of the blade is better suited to catch the puck.
Bob realizes much the same thing. Look at who he has picked up the past couple of years: Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov, Aaron Downey, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous, and Brian Smolinski. All right handers. Even Hamrlik's signing could be attributed in part to restoring balance, as he's supposedly as good on his forehand as his backhand. In fact these types of players are preferable, as they aren't dependent on one side alone.
And Carbo has taken advantage of the rebalancing, esp with his defensive pairings. Last year, he paired up his dmen more or less like this (on the left are the lefties, the right are the righties):
Markov(L) - Komisarek(R)
Souray(L) - Rivet(R)
Bouillon(L) - Dandenault(R)
So Hamrlik's ambidextrous ability hasn't taken Souray's spot so much as Rivet's. I'll argue (later) that Streit will be the one to take Souray's spot in the top 4.
But why so many left handers? When I was growing up, I was always told to play with the stick that seemed most natural. For whatever reason, I felt most comfortable with the left handed sticks -- even though I wrote right handed, threw right handed, picked my nose right handed. Actually the latter was more of an ambidextrous activity, but you get my meaning.
I'm guessing that for whatever reason, most players feel comfortable from the left side. I doubt it has anything to do with the dominant side for other activities, ie, if you write right handed, then you play hockey left handed. From what I know only 10% of the world is left hand dominant, so hockey would have dreadfully few right handers. So how does it break down? Who knows?
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