All O, No D

Carbo's latest tinkerings with line combinations have at once taken advantage of the Habs' strengths, while laid bare their most glaring weakness. The lines go something like this:

Kostitsyn-Koivu-Latendresse
Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Ryder
Streit-Kostopolous-Dandenault

There are so many oddities about these lines:

1. Michael Ryder is playing again, after a few games as a healthy scratch. Ryder's situation deserves a post unto itself, so more on that later.
   
2. The fourth line has no real center and two defensemen on the wings.
   
3. All lefties on the "first" two lines, and only two on the "last" two.
4. Three scoring lines, and one energy line.
   

As odd as these combinations are, they are a small bit of genius given the Habs' dearth of anyone resembling a defensive forward. Carbo split up the three catalysts for the Habs' offense: Higgins, Koivu and Kovalev. With each driving their respective lines, other coaches can't figure out against whom to send their better units. Carbo also sends all lines on the forecheck constantly, except in the third period when they fall back into a trap-like defensive shell with a four or five goal lead.

And that is exactly when this bold plan's soft underbelly is exposed. None of these guys are bona fide shut down forwards. The plan's success in the early going is based on keeping the puck in the offensive zone, and creating pressure with a constant forecheck. With the game safely in hand after two periods, Carbo figures he can just play defense, and ride out the last 20 minutes. But while these lines excel at being the aggressor, they aren't so good at playing D. The result, over the three games these lines have been in effect? Outscoring the opposition 10-2 in the first two periods vs being outscored 5-3 in the last (including OT).

So why not just play the third period just like the first two? Carbo would appear to be trying to run up the score, a big no-no esp given the Habs' lack of an enforcer. So Carbo has to hope that the big early game leads will continue, and that his team (and esp his goalies) can hold on in the third.

Granted, the last game against the Rangers is a little atypical, and maybe one could argue that shouldn't be counted against this plan. After all, the Habs could only dress 19 players -- Corey Locke had an equipment bag snafu at Toronto's Pearson airport. The baggage guys there must be Leafs fans. But his absence didn't hurt as much as the guy he was supposed to replace: Saku Koivu, out with the flu. (Deja vu. Haven't the Habs' medical staff heard of flu shots?) .

Koivu is the Habs' best faceoff guy, for three years running now. The Rangers ruthlessly exposed the Habs' weakness in the faceoff circle, winning 68% of the draws. The most costly, of course, was Drury's win late in the third to tie the game. Lapierre's return has helped, but with Plekanec consistently losing more than he wins, the Habs desperately need someone to center that fourth line with a better faceoff percentage, esp take some defensive zone draws.

In the first two games (against the Lightning and Panthers) Carbo turned to Kostopolous, a winger who has lost about two draws for every win over the last three seasons. That's a pretty damning lack of confidence in Chipchura, who was a healthy scratch in both games.

But against the Rangers, without Koivu, Carbo had no choice but to play Chipchura. He was woefully not up to the job. His line was on the ice the for the first two goals, all ending up at -2. Of course it didn't help that Tom Renney recognized the mismatch and sent Straka-Gomez-Jagr out each time. On the first goal, Renney even caught Carbo with Chipchura's line as well as the third defensive unit, Bouillon and Gorges. Might as well have given them the goal and not bother with the formalities.

But there's not a whole lot Carbo can do about his fourth line, even when his guys are healthy. Bob needs to get him some help, esp to center that fourth line. And that is the subject of my next post.

Bring back Max, part III

There's been some interesting talk around the Habs recently, most curiously stated by Guy Lafleur, my childhood idol. He said that the Habs roll out four fourth lines. Now, that's a wee bit exaggerated. I don't think Koivu, Kovalev, Plekanec or Higgins belong on a fourth or even third line. But on a team with the talent of, say, the Senators, they'd be doing a lot of second line work.

There was also some discussion over at the Theory of Ice along the same lines. For those of you not familiar, the Theory is the pre-eminent Habs blog out there today. Interestingly enough, Jeff (the author of the equally good, but now retired Sisu Hockey), commented at length about what he saw as some warning signs.

To sum up, he pointed out that Smolinski's line was Carbo's first choice for lining up against the opposition's top line. Koivu's line was second. So this explains to a large degree why Plekanec's line has been feasting, while Koivu's not so much.

Gainey and Carbo don't have many options. Like Jeff said (and Lafleur exaggerated), we don't have many legitimate checking line forwards. Begin and Kostopolous tend to be agitator types. Chipchura, Latendresse and Grabovski are all young, and need to learn the nuances of defense and other player's tendencies. Smolinski is a crafty, but not getting any younger veteran. Dandenault is trying to re-learn his forward position.

On talented teams, the above seven would be fourth liners. It's hard to admit it, but it's true. But this is the hand we've been dealt (although I still don't understand why we didn't keep Radek Bonk and Mike Johnson). So how to go forward?

I've complained about the Habs inability to keep the lead. On the most recent Theory posting, e posts some interesting stats about late game leads. And given Jeff's point about Koivu's line playing as a second checking line, I wonder if what we really need is a solid, second checking line option.

This would free up Koivu's line to play against third and fourth liners. Well, at home anyway. On the road, we wouldn't have the last change, so it wouldn't work as well. But it should still help I think, esp on line changing during the play.

We don't have a lot of options, given the player personnel listed above. But of those, the weakest links on defense are clearly Latendresse and Grabovski. So I say (again) bring back Max. He proved last year that he's got some defensive chops. And if he can't shut down an opposing forward, he can sure get under their skin (see every game vs Crosby) and provoke them to take a bad penalty or two. And since Murray has been gone, there's been a roster spot open.

I'd see those two checking lines going something like this:
Begin-Smolinksi-Dandenault
Chipchura-Lapierre-Kostopolous

Carbo might even be tempted to switch Smolinski and Lapierre, if only to keep some veteran/rookie balance. Plus, you'd get an all French Canadian line. Tabarnac!

Keeping an Even Keel

I think the title of this post is some sort of sailing term, whereby a sailboat is kept from rocking to and fro by a steady hand upon the keel. Whatever that is.

A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.

To be sure, it certainly does look good:

• #1 power play in the land
• #5 in the Hab-hating TSN power ranking
• Points all around, sprinkled like fairy dust upon checking line forward and highly paid sniper alike.
  
• Plekanec and Kovalev making beautiful plays, instead of one mystifying the other like last year.
• Kovalev still on pace for a 40 goal season, 1/8 of the way through the campaign.
  
• Andrei Markov: quite simply, the bargain of the year. Second in scoring, multiple game winning goals, and ice time leader. All for millions less than Zdeno Chara.
  
• Youngsters Grabovski and especially Chipchura looking right at home in the NHL.
  
• Even Kostopolous turning his play around, without benefit of a benching.
• Mathieu Dandenault, opportunistic forechecker extraordinaire? May the surprises never cease, at least of the pleasant variety.
  

But let's not get too giddy. The Habs looked pretty good early last season too. Then came Christmas, and the Habs seemed to take an extended holiday season. All the way through the off-season. Off course, a major injury to Huet and a a flu bug that wouldn't go away didn't help either. Plus Kovalev's vertigo. Chalk last season up to Murphy's Law. Or was it Ironic? Alanis has me all messed up.

But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.

Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:

• Habs blow 3-0 lead over Pittsburgh, before Price puts the entire team on his back and wins in the shootout.
  
• Habs take 5-1 lead over Carolina, but then let them creep back to within two goals before sealing it with the empty netter.
• In Ottawa, they manage to scramble back to tie it at 3-3, but then give it away seconds later with 6 mins left in the game.
• Habs have a slight 1-0 lead over Florida, but are otherwise dominating. They allow a late game tying goal, and then lost in the shootout.
• Habs take 3-1 lead over Toronto, but end up losing in OT to the Leafs of all teams. Ugh.

Some of it I think is due to personnel. As much as I love Mark Streit, we really have four 3rd tier dmen: Streit, Bouillon, Gorges and Brisebois. Not much we can do about that in the short term. They're all doing well enough, but the average ice time is telling. Hamrlik, Komisarek and Markov average between 21-25 minutes. Whereas Brisebois, Streit and Bouillon average 17.5 to 18 minutes.

But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.

But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.

Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.

The fourth line

Yes, yes, I know I skipped the first defensive pairing. But anyone who's really wondering who will be Carbo's top shutdown pair hasn't been paying attention (psst, Markov and Komisarek; Shut 'Em Down should be their anthem).

So I'm skipping the obvious and heading directly to the Habs' fourth line. For some teams, this is a chance to break in rookies. For some fortunate few, it's a second checking line. And for the remainder, it's an "energy" line, designed to disrupt the rhythm of an opponent, kind of like an offspeed or changeup pitch in baseball. Rarely, it's a combination of all three.

This year, I think the Habs will have a line that's a little bit of everything. Maxim Lapierre will be on the right wing, providing that bit of energy (remember the incidents with Ray Emery? Emery's a hothead, but Lapierre did his job). The rookie breaking in will be Kyle Chipchura at center, and Guilliame Latendresse will provide a bit of scoring pop and muscle in the corners at left wing.

And with Lapierre's and Chipchura's defensive capabilities, they could function as a second penalty kill unit. Three reasons why:

1. Both can and are being groomed into shutdown, checking-line players. Lapierre shadowed a few star players last year. We all remember how he got under Sidney Crosby's skin. That was kind of funny.
   
2. Both play center, meaning that either have a lot of experience at faceoffs. This is critical on the PK, as the first guy to take the faceoff can be a little more, uh, aggressive in his approach. If he gets kicked out, there's an equally adept faceoff man waiting to take his place.
3. Last but not least, Lapierre is right-handed and Chipchura is a lefty. As I've mentioned before, this is very important on defense.

Garth Murray might occasionally crack the lineup, as he's the only pugilist with any chance of making the roster. I'm guessing that he'll push Latendresse for ice time. Lats tended to disappear at times last year, and if that happens again, he'll be watching from the press box more often.

And if injuries hit, we might see Dandenault or Streit lining up as a forward again. Dandenault has more experience at it, but Streit looked much more comfortable and confident in that role. Still, I'd much rather see Streit as a top-4 dman, so let's hope the injury and illness bug doesn't hit again this year.