Trading your playoff MVP for a pair of prospects may not seem like the most shrewd opening move for Pierre Gauthier’s first offseason as Habs GM. But as we noted in our analysis of the Habs’ goaltending needs, small goalies like Halak were bound to be a bit of a risk. So while Halak may be worth more than two (highly rated) prospects, he also might be worth less. At least Gauthier covered his bets by trading him to a Western Conference team, where Halak would be less likely to haunt his former team, either in the regular season or the playoffs. And Gauthier did address some needs. The Habs are desperate for size up front, some scoring punch, and right handed shots. It’s too bad that all couldn’t be combined in the same player: if Ellers had Schultz’s size, grit and right handed shot, this would have been a much better deal. But Ellers may be the insurance Gauthier needs if he can’t sign Plekanec. Or if Gauthier can’t afford Plekanec by going after a big fish like Patrick Marleau instead. But the most likely reason for the trade is not the players received, but the cap space gained to both sign Plekanec and keep Hamrlik.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
Showing posts with label Halak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Halak. Show all posts
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
An Embarrassment of Riches
Today we look at the situation between the pipes. The Habs have two very good goalies. No, make that one outstanding goalie and another very good with a lot of promise. Both are young and restricted free agents this off-season.
As RFA's, the Habs could underpay them, offering them just enough to keep other teams at bay. Or the Habs could try to lock them up long term, beyond when they turn 27 and become eligible for UFA status. This would probably apply more to Halak (24 yrs old) than Price (22 yrs old).
But I don't think there will be any long term contracts for either, mostly because of rule changes next year. Goalie pads will now be regulated according to the size of the goalie. No more of those extra large pads that extend up to the goalie's waist.
The effect of those oversized pads was most noticeable with butterfly-style goalies. The pads closed up the five-hole, leaving the goalie free to use the paddle to cover up other areas.
One would think the rule change would affect Halak more than Price. After all, Price is a much bigger goalie than Halak, and covers up a lot of net with or without the large pads. But Halak showed a lot of mental toughness, especially during the playoffs.
Price hasn't shown that kind of toughness, given his propensity to let in a soft goal every so often. Still Price showed a lot of maturity in accepting his backup role, and could be seen encouraging Halak, practicing hard, and calling out teammates who didn't put in the necessary work. Even his two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in that one Washington game could be seen it this light. Sure he went a bit overboard with his team spirit, but knowing where the line is is something that comes with experience.
So while there is a lot of promise in their young netminders, there are a lot of question marks too. Bet on Gauthier offering a one or two year deal to Halak, in the $2M to $2.5M annual cap hit range. Price might get a longer contract, given his younger age, but at a lower annual cap hit. Maybe $1M to $1.5M?
These low amounts will also be necessary for Gauthier to re-sign most of his RFA's, as well as his important UFA's, none more important than Plekanec.
Up next: blue line changes.
As RFA's, the Habs could underpay them, offering them just enough to keep other teams at bay. Or the Habs could try to lock them up long term, beyond when they turn 27 and become eligible for UFA status. This would probably apply more to Halak (24 yrs old) than Price (22 yrs old).
But I don't think there will be any long term contracts for either, mostly because of rule changes next year. Goalie pads will now be regulated according to the size of the goalie. No more of those extra large pads that extend up to the goalie's waist.
The effect of those oversized pads was most noticeable with butterfly-style goalies. The pads closed up the five-hole, leaving the goalie free to use the paddle to cover up other areas.
One would think the rule change would affect Halak more than Price. After all, Price is a much bigger goalie than Halak, and covers up a lot of net with or without the large pads. But Halak showed a lot of mental toughness, especially during the playoffs.
Price hasn't shown that kind of toughness, given his propensity to let in a soft goal every so often. Still Price showed a lot of maturity in accepting his backup role, and could be seen encouraging Halak, practicing hard, and calling out teammates who didn't put in the necessary work. Even his two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in that one Washington game could be seen it this light. Sure he went a bit overboard with his team spirit, but knowing where the line is is something that comes with experience.
So while there is a lot of promise in their young netminders, there are a lot of question marks too. Bet on Gauthier offering a one or two year deal to Halak, in the $2M to $2.5M annual cap hit range. Price might get a longer contract, given his younger age, but at a lower annual cap hit. Maybe $1M to $1.5M?
These low amounts will also be necessary for Gauthier to re-sign most of his RFA's, as well as his important UFA's, none more important than Plekanec.
Up next: blue line changes.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
UFA countdown
Now that the season is over, Pierre Gauthier and company can concentrate on what the next year may bring. And with such a long playoff run, they have a lot of data to sift through. But even without crunching the numbers, it's evident that the Habs are strongest on the blueline and between the pipes. These are great building blocks. So Gauthier must focus on how to upgrade his corps of forwards, and search for players with the skill and speed to match the Giontas and Cammalleris, but enough size to create space for them as well.
There is one player with all those qualities, and due to be an unrestricted free agent this July 1: Patrick Marleau. But with his 44 goals this regular season, and a similar performance in the playoffs (despite playing much of the time with No Show Joe), Marleau will be a hot commodity.
How hot? Currently he carries a $6.3M cap hit. To lure him away from the team that drafted him and the only team he has played for in his 12 years in the league, any GM would have to significantly boost that amount. His teammate Dany Heatley carries a $7.5M cap hit. With UFA inflation, that could easily go to $8M. There are some who question his mental toughness and and others who say he won't fare as well without Thornton. Both unfounded, especially given his most recent playoff performance, but they might serve to at keep him at or under $8M.
But the Habs are only $12M or $13M under the cap for next year. Much of that will go to signing or replacing three of their top four centers (Plekanec, Moore and Metropolit). Another chunk will go to re-signing RFA's, especially Halak. Assuming Marleau gets $7.5M to $8M and replaces Plekanec as the #1 center, then Moore and Metropolit would have to be replaced with minimum wage UFA's or minor leaguers (Maxwell and White?). And the RFA's will all have to be low balled, probably on one year deals while the Habs wait out the economy and hope for a higher cap the following year -- and also hope no other team is willing to part with the compensation necessary to pry away a Halak.
Or maybe there's another scenario where Marleau could wear le bleu, blanc et rouge. Maybe by replacing the only center who is under contract, a contract that just happens to carry a very similar cap hit as the one Marleau would command. We're talking about Scott Gomez of course. This topic has been addressed ad nauseum in this space. And nothing has changed, even during the course of the playoffs. Gomez is a good player. He's just not worth the cap hit he currently costs.
But it's that same issue that will make it almost impossible to trade him. So the Habs will either gut their roster to get Marleau, or have to look elsewhere. Next up: looking elsewhere.
There is one player with all those qualities, and due to be an unrestricted free agent this July 1: Patrick Marleau. But with his 44 goals this regular season, and a similar performance in the playoffs (despite playing much of the time with No Show Joe), Marleau will be a hot commodity.
How hot? Currently he carries a $6.3M cap hit. To lure him away from the team that drafted him and the only team he has played for in his 12 years in the league, any GM would have to significantly boost that amount. His teammate Dany Heatley carries a $7.5M cap hit. With UFA inflation, that could easily go to $8M. There are some who question his mental toughness and and others who say he won't fare as well without Thornton. Both unfounded, especially given his most recent playoff performance, but they might serve to at keep him at or under $8M.
But the Habs are only $12M or $13M under the cap for next year. Much of that will go to signing or replacing three of their top four centers (Plekanec, Moore and Metropolit). Another chunk will go to re-signing RFA's, especially Halak. Assuming Marleau gets $7.5M to $8M and replaces Plekanec as the #1 center, then Moore and Metropolit would have to be replaced with minimum wage UFA's or minor leaguers (Maxwell and White?). And the RFA's will all have to be low balled, probably on one year deals while the Habs wait out the economy and hope for a higher cap the following year -- and also hope no other team is willing to part with the compensation necessary to pry away a Halak.
Or maybe there's another scenario where Marleau could wear le bleu, blanc et rouge. Maybe by replacing the only center who is under contract, a contract that just happens to carry a very similar cap hit as the one Marleau would command. We're talking about Scott Gomez of course. This topic has been addressed ad nauseum in this space. And nothing has changed, even during the course of the playoffs. Gomez is a good player. He's just not worth the cap hit he currently costs.
But it's that same issue that will make it almost impossible to trade him. So the Habs will either gut their roster to get Marleau, or have to look elsewhere. Next up: looking elsewhere.
Post mortem
Well, that was a helluva ride. Given that they were the 16th seed, rising to the top four is well beyond anyone's expectations. Still, there is room to improve and the deep run into the playoffs exposed this team's strengths and weaknesses.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Trade deadline 2010
As much as Gomez's contract is the single biggest albatross on the books right now, he probably won't be traded. Not with the Habs contending for a playoff spot, and Gomez dutifully (albeit expensively) centering the second line. Neither will Halak, not given his stellar clutch performances in the Olympics -- that kind of play will be needed in the next 20 games and come April.
No, there is another player who is 1) garnering interest; 2) will free up cap space for an additional acquisition this season; and 3) free up space for next season to sign various RFA's as well as Plekanec next year. That player is Hal Gill.
Gill's value in any one game can be correlated in inverse proportion to the number of skaters on the ice: 5-on-5, he's a liability; 5-on-3, his long reach can take away an entire side of of the ice. Further, his inability to skate is less evident in short-handed situations, esp when down 2 men. During those times, one needs positioning, reach and size more than foot speed.
And for this reason, the Penguins want him back -- and presumably others in the playoff hunt who need help on the PK. The Habs would do well to trade him. His $2.25M cap hit isn't much, but when added with the others that will come off the books next summer, it might be just enough to squeeze Plekanec in, as well as the minor raises due to various RFA's.
Gill may also be expendable because of the play of PK Subban. In his brief stint, Subban showed he was ready for the NHL. He might not be able to kill penalties like Gill, but his offensive prowess may more than offset that. Plus, on the odd occasion he did get beat on the defensive end, he quickly hustled back to get back in position.
There are other Habs who also may be expendable because of Subban, namely Bergeron and Mara. Bergeron would gain more interest because of his versatility and howitzer of a shot.
In return the Habs should be looking for more secondary scoring. When all four lines are clicking, an opposing coach will have difficulty determining matchups (see Canada's 4 game win streak to end the Olympics). The Plekanec and Gomez lines are settled, esp when Andrei Kostitsyn gets back. The fourth line could be comprised of Darche, Metropolit and Lapierre -- size, some speed and lots of grit. That leaves Moen, Sergei Kostitsyn and Dominic Moore for the third line.
While that line is defensively capable, it lacks much scoring punch -- aside from Kostitsyn. So it would be nice to ship Moore or Moen off for an upgrade on the offensive end, preferably someone with a right handed shot to balance out that line. And some size would be nice too.
That's a tall order, admittedly. But some combination of Gill, Mara, Bergeron and/or Moore (and maybe some prospects) could do the trick.
No, there is another player who is 1) garnering interest; 2) will free up cap space for an additional acquisition this season; and 3) free up space for next season to sign various RFA's as well as Plekanec next year. That player is Hal Gill.
Gill's value in any one game can be correlated in inverse proportion to the number of skaters on the ice: 5-on-5, he's a liability; 5-on-3, his long reach can take away an entire side of of the ice. Further, his inability to skate is less evident in short-handed situations, esp when down 2 men. During those times, one needs positioning, reach and size more than foot speed.
And for this reason, the Penguins want him back -- and presumably others in the playoff hunt who need help on the PK. The Habs would do well to trade him. His $2.25M cap hit isn't much, but when added with the others that will come off the books next summer, it might be just enough to squeeze Plekanec in, as well as the minor raises due to various RFA's.
Gill may also be expendable because of the play of PK Subban. In his brief stint, Subban showed he was ready for the NHL. He might not be able to kill penalties like Gill, but his offensive prowess may more than offset that. Plus, on the odd occasion he did get beat on the defensive end, he quickly hustled back to get back in position.
There are other Habs who also may be expendable because of Subban, namely Bergeron and Mara. Bergeron would gain more interest because of his versatility and howitzer of a shot.
In return the Habs should be looking for more secondary scoring. When all four lines are clicking, an opposing coach will have difficulty determining matchups (see Canada's 4 game win streak to end the Olympics). The Plekanec and Gomez lines are settled, esp when Andrei Kostitsyn gets back. The fourth line could be comprised of Darche, Metropolit and Lapierre -- size, some speed and lots of grit. That leaves Moen, Sergei Kostitsyn and Dominic Moore for the third line.
While that line is defensively capable, it lacks much scoring punch -- aside from Kostitsyn. So it would be nice to ship Moore or Moen off for an upgrade on the offensive end, preferably someone with a right handed shot to balance out that line. And some size would be nice too.
That's a tall order, admittedly. But some combination of Gill, Mara, Bergeron and/or Moore (and maybe some prospects) could do the trick.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Oops, gotta go!
Such strange timing, even if one accepts Gainey's reasoning: a GM needs to be focused on the long term, and he doesn't see himself here for much longer. But if that's so, why not step down at the end of last season, when huge decisions had to be made about the future of the team?
To recap, half the team went UFA. He attempted to keep two: Kovalev and Komisarek. Both fortunately fled elsewhere for similar money, allowing Gainey to pick up better replacements: Gionta and Spacek. (Gainey seriously lucked out here). And then he let everyone else go, including replacing their long time captain with a similarly skilled centerman -- only to pay him twice as much. Or as Pierre LeBrun sums it up: "Mercy. The wrong center is making money in Montreal"
But Gainey now says he wants to let someone with a more long term commitment take over so that they can put their mark on the club? Sorry, bub, but you already did that -- and not very well either, given the Habs' tenuous hold on a playoff spot.
And that's actually worse than being a confirmed loser like the Leafs or Canes. At least they know they are sellers and have started rebuilding. The Habs have no idea what they will be before the March 3 trade deadline.
So now it will be Gauthier's problem to squeeze Tomas Plekanec under the cap. And so long as the Habs keep sniffing around a playoff spot, Gauthier will be forced to hold onto to Gomez, Gill, Halak and any other rumored departures. But he also can't sell off the future (including Price) for a short term rental, because even if they do get in, they're not going far.
To recap, half the team went UFA. He attempted to keep two: Kovalev and Komisarek. Both fortunately fled elsewhere for similar money, allowing Gainey to pick up better replacements: Gionta and Spacek. (Gainey seriously lucked out here). And then he let everyone else go, including replacing their long time captain with a similarly skilled centerman -- only to pay him twice as much. Or as Pierre LeBrun sums it up: "Mercy. The wrong center is making money in Montreal"
But Gainey now says he wants to let someone with a more long term commitment take over so that they can put their mark on the club? Sorry, bub, but you already did that -- and not very well either, given the Habs' tenuous hold on a playoff spot.
And that's actually worse than being a confirmed loser like the Leafs or Canes. At least they know they are sellers and have started rebuilding. The Habs have no idea what they will be before the March 3 trade deadline.
So now it will be Gauthier's problem to squeeze Tomas Plekanec under the cap. And so long as the Habs keep sniffing around a playoff spot, Gauthier will be forced to hold onto to Gomez, Gill, Halak and any other rumored departures. But he also can't sell off the future (including Price) for a short term rental, because even if they do get in, they're not going far.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
A proposal, v. 2
Dallas isn't the only Western Conference team in need of a long term goaltending solution and with significant cap space to. St. Louis also fits that description.
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)-Gionta
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
Sunday, December 20, 2009
A proposal
So Jaroslav Halak wants out? With Carey Price solidifying his play (save his troublesome glove hand; use a broken-in mitt, Carey!), Halak is somewhat expendable. "Somewhat" because Price hasn't proven that he can't be a Brodeur-like iron man. Martin has tried, at least twice starting Price in both games of a back-to-back. And both times Price looked good in the opener, and somewhat suspect in the closer. To wit:
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Roster moves: goaltending
Enough with the theory. On to the nuts and bolts of the 2009-10 edition of the Montreal Canadiens. Every team's most valuable player should be their goaltender. Hockey is in essence a defensive sport. And the goalie is the last line of defense. So it only holds that any team must be built from the pipes on out.
The Habs started out last season with what seemed like a pretty good goalie tandem. Toward the beginning of the year, Price and Halak may have been the best in the league. That soon faltered -- badly -- after the All Star break.
Price has clearly the more upside of the two, with a combination of size, skill, and inflappable demeanor (uh, usually). Some have argued that Price needs a better coach. That could be true, given some of his struggles last year. He often was too deep in his net, failing to challenge shooters. And he went down far too quickly, leading opponents to believe they could successfullly shoot high on him.
But some of this may be due to a lack of confidence, in addition to inadequate coaching. Price could then use a mentor, someone who has seen success between the pipes in the NHL, and is now ready to assume the elder counsel role -- but also still spry enough to spell the youngster on occasion.
That man may be Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig was Price's early mentor, when Price was with the Tri City Americans in the Western Hockey League -- part owned by Kolzig. So they have a history, and Price openly talked about Kolzig's mentorship in those days. Those very successful days.
Kolzig made $1.5M last year. He would have to take a significant cut to join the Habs. Or sign a front loaded, multi-year deal for a smaller cap hit (a loophole that the Habs should exploit before it is closed).
The only problem is that Kolzig is 39. And he didn't play all that well last year. After all, a #2 will have to do more than just teach.
Better options for actual goaltending might be Brian Boucher or Ty Conklin. Both are in their mid-30's and both posted very good years for very little money. For those same reasons, other teams will be after them too, so they won't be that cheap this year. But again, the multi-year deal can avoid the cap problem. The bigger issue is: can they mentor a young, confidence-challenged goaltender?
And then what of Jaroslav Halak? Two options: the Yann Danis route (eternity in the minors as injury insurance) or be traded. Halak would certainly pick up some trade interest, with his generally solid play and bargain rate price. And it would avoid the Yann Danis scenario of losing a quality netminder without compensation.
But if Halak goes, and both Price and his backup go down, who then? Cedrick Desjardins had a decent season for the Bulldogs, but was usually outplayed by NHL castoff Marc Denis. Not exactly the stuff of stellar resume. But still, he's only 20. He might be ready next year for a game or two.
The Habs started out last season with what seemed like a pretty good goalie tandem. Toward the beginning of the year, Price and Halak may have been the best in the league. That soon faltered -- badly -- after the All Star break.
Price has clearly the more upside of the two, with a combination of size, skill, and inflappable demeanor (uh, usually). Some have argued that Price needs a better coach. That could be true, given some of his struggles last year. He often was too deep in his net, failing to challenge shooters. And he went down far too quickly, leading opponents to believe they could successfullly shoot high on him.
But some of this may be due to a lack of confidence, in addition to inadequate coaching. Price could then use a mentor, someone who has seen success between the pipes in the NHL, and is now ready to assume the elder counsel role -- but also still spry enough to spell the youngster on occasion.
That man may be Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig was Price's early mentor, when Price was with the Tri City Americans in the Western Hockey League -- part owned by Kolzig. So they have a history, and Price openly talked about Kolzig's mentorship in those days. Those very successful days.
Kolzig made $1.5M last year. He would have to take a significant cut to join the Habs. Or sign a front loaded, multi-year deal for a smaller cap hit (a loophole that the Habs should exploit before it is closed).
The only problem is that Kolzig is 39. And he didn't play all that well last year. After all, a #2 will have to do more than just teach.
Better options for actual goaltending might be Brian Boucher or Ty Conklin. Both are in their mid-30's and both posted very good years for very little money. For those same reasons, other teams will be after them too, so they won't be that cheap this year. But again, the multi-year deal can avoid the cap problem. The bigger issue is: can they mentor a young, confidence-challenged goaltender?
And then what of Jaroslav Halak? Two options: the Yann Danis route (eternity in the minors as injury insurance) or be traded. Halak would certainly pick up some trade interest, with his generally solid play and bargain rate price. And it would avoid the Yann Danis scenario of losing a quality netminder without compensation.
But if Halak goes, and both Price and his backup go down, who then? Cedrick Desjardins had a decent season for the Bulldogs, but was usually outplayed by NHL castoff Marc Denis. Not exactly the stuff of stellar resume. But still, he's only 20. He might be ready next year for a game or two.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Hope for the future
Everybody wants to emulate a winner. Last year the Anaheim Ducks brutalized their way to the top. This year, some teams tried to do the same, most notably the Philadelphia Flyers. But some early (and very necessary) intervention by Colin Campbell seemed to have righted that ship, at least for the regular season.
Now its the playoffs, and the "sticky" play has returned (as noted ad nauseum in the last post). Occasionally though, there are breakthroughs, where the refs start calling the penalties as they should be. This was notably absent for much of the Bruins-Habs series, but the Habs managed to pull through.
For the Flyers series, the officiating has been better, but there has still been a lot of hooking and holding going on. Not egregious enough to pull down a player, but enough to eliminate space for the much more talented Habs.
Probably the best example is the supposed dominance of Biron. While he has played better than either Halak or Price (for the most part), he hasn't been unbeatable. He has always been prone to giving up juicy rebounds, and this series is no different. The difference is that the Habs can get to them. So much hooking, holding and general interference is happening in front of the net that they can't break free.
But Habs GM is still optimistic about the future. Most of the skilled teams have done well, esp the Red Wings and Penguins. The Sharks and Habs would also fall into that category, but are behind the 8-ball right now. Still, as pointed out over at Sisu Hockey, it might just all be bad luck. In almost every other statistical category, the Habs have outplayed the Flyers.
So while a 25th Stanley Cup championship would be the ultimate this year, a Red Wings-Penguins final would be a decent second best. Then instead of emulating the Ducks, maybe other teams will start playing catch up with the skill teams, and the NHL on-ice product would be that much more satisfying.
Now its the playoffs, and the "sticky" play has returned (as noted ad nauseum in the last post). Occasionally though, there are breakthroughs, where the refs start calling the penalties as they should be. This was notably absent for much of the Bruins-Habs series, but the Habs managed to pull through.
For the Flyers series, the officiating has been better, but there has still been a lot of hooking and holding going on. Not egregious enough to pull down a player, but enough to eliminate space for the much more talented Habs.
Probably the best example is the supposed dominance of Biron. While he has played better than either Halak or Price (for the most part), he hasn't been unbeatable. He has always been prone to giving up juicy rebounds, and this series is no different. The difference is that the Habs can get to them. So much hooking, holding and general interference is happening in front of the net that they can't break free.
But Habs GM is still optimistic about the future. Most of the skilled teams have done well, esp the Red Wings and Penguins. The Sharks and Habs would also fall into that category, but are behind the 8-ball right now. Still, as pointed out over at Sisu Hockey, it might just all be bad luck. In almost every other statistical category, the Habs have outplayed the Flyers.
So while a 25th Stanley Cup championship would be the ultimate this year, a Red Wings-Penguins final would be a decent second best. Then instead of emulating the Ducks, maybe other teams will start playing catch up with the skill teams, and the NHL on-ice product would be that much more satisfying.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Brisebois for Brown
The last post argued why the Habs should swing a trade for the Sharks' seldom-used Curtis Brown.
But who among the Habs would the Sharks want in return? From our vantage point, the Sharks are most in need of a backup goaltender with NHL experience and an offensive dman, preferably right handed. Turns out the Habs are well stocked with both: Yann Danis or Jaroslav Halak for the former, or Patrice Brisebois for the latter.
The low risk route for the Sharks is to get a backup goaltender. So far this year, Nabokov has played every game. Although he has done well, one wonders how long that can last. Martin Brodeur once played 78 games, and then into the playoffs. But that's Martin Brodeur. Nabokov doesn't have an ironman reputation.
Not having a proven backup is (usually) asking for trouble, but Sharks GM Doug Wilson traded the reliable Vesa Toskala to the Leafs before this season. Part of that was to unload Mark Bell, but most Sharks fans were left scratching their heads as to who would back up Nabokov for his days off and if injury were to occur.
The Habs could afford to part with either Danis or Halak at this point. The conventional thinking was that Huet would be allowed to walk next year and Price would be the #1. Halak or Danis would back up Price, with the other as a #3 should injury befall Price. But Price hasn't played all that well, certainly not enough to supplant Huet. Habs GM wouldn't be surprised if Bob were to send Price to the minors this season, and start the paperwork for re-signing Huet. If that were to happen, both Halak and Danis would still be plying their trade for the Bulldogs next season -- not an ideal situation for either.
But for all that, Habs GM thinks that Wilson would rather have Brisebois in exchange for Brown. The Sharks need someone like Brisebois to help their woeful offense and PP. For all his defensive deficiencies, Brisebois is fairly effective at moving the puck in the transition game -- crucial in today's NHL. Those same skills make him a good PP QB option.
The Sharks play exceptionally good defense, so Brisebois' adventures in his own zone would not hurt as much. The Sharks lead the league in GAA, doing so with a remarkably young defensive corps. They are also #2 on the PK. If there is one weakness, it is that they are all lefties, except for Craig Rivet. Balance on the blueline is essential.
Perhaps this is the reason the Sharks have not had more production from their blueline. Clearly, all their dmen are defensively responsible, and Nabokov is displaying All Star form. Brisebois would help on the offensive end, when healthy and when paired with a stay-at-home dman like Kyle McLaren.
And, as noted in the last post, the Sharks just need more goals in general. A better transition game would go a long way toward achieving this. Their 23rd ranked PP could also use the help.
No trade proposal is complete without a salary cap analysis. And this is the icing on the cake: Brown, Brisebois and Danis all make $700k per year, and all will be UFA's at the end of this season. Halak makes only $500k, so other considerations may have to be thrown in to make that deal balance out.
But who among the Habs would the Sharks want in return? From our vantage point, the Sharks are most in need of a backup goaltender with NHL experience and an offensive dman, preferably right handed. Turns out the Habs are well stocked with both: Yann Danis or Jaroslav Halak for the former, or Patrice Brisebois for the latter.
The low risk route for the Sharks is to get a backup goaltender. So far this year, Nabokov has played every game. Although he has done well, one wonders how long that can last. Martin Brodeur once played 78 games, and then into the playoffs. But that's Martin Brodeur. Nabokov doesn't have an ironman reputation.
Not having a proven backup is (usually) asking for trouble, but Sharks GM Doug Wilson traded the reliable Vesa Toskala to the Leafs before this season. Part of that was to unload Mark Bell, but most Sharks fans were left scratching their heads as to who would back up Nabokov for his days off and if injury were to occur.
The Habs could afford to part with either Danis or Halak at this point. The conventional thinking was that Huet would be allowed to walk next year and Price would be the #1. Halak or Danis would back up Price, with the other as a #3 should injury befall Price. But Price hasn't played all that well, certainly not enough to supplant Huet. Habs GM wouldn't be surprised if Bob were to send Price to the minors this season, and start the paperwork for re-signing Huet. If that were to happen, both Halak and Danis would still be plying their trade for the Bulldogs next season -- not an ideal situation for either.
But for all that, Habs GM thinks that Wilson would rather have Brisebois in exchange for Brown. The Sharks need someone like Brisebois to help their woeful offense and PP. For all his defensive deficiencies, Brisebois is fairly effective at moving the puck in the transition game -- crucial in today's NHL. Those same skills make him a good PP QB option.
The Sharks play exceptionally good defense, so Brisebois' adventures in his own zone would not hurt as much. The Sharks lead the league in GAA, doing so with a remarkably young defensive corps. They are also #2 on the PK. If there is one weakness, it is that they are all lefties, except for Craig Rivet. Balance on the blueline is essential.
Perhaps this is the reason the Sharks have not had more production from their blueline. Clearly, all their dmen are defensively responsible, and Nabokov is displaying All Star form. Brisebois would help on the offensive end, when healthy and when paired with a stay-at-home dman like Kyle McLaren.
And, as noted in the last post, the Sharks just need more goals in general. A better transition game would go a long way toward achieving this. Their 23rd ranked PP could also use the help.
No trade proposal is complete without a salary cap analysis. And this is the icing on the cake: Brown, Brisebois and Danis all make $700k per year, and all will be UFA's at the end of this season. Halak makes only $500k, so other considerations may have to be thrown in to make that deal balance out.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
More rumors
So there's a rumor making its rounds of the Habs blogosphere that the Sharks might be interested in our incumbent backup goalie, Jaroslav Halak. Just a rumor, sure, but one posted on RDS -- an outlet not normally known for publishing BS.
And it makes a certain amount of sense. The Sharks once were the envy of most of the NHL for their goaltending situation. They basically had two #1 goalies in Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala. And this was after trading away Mikka Kiprusoff (yikes! Who pulled the trigger on that one?!). They also had a very capable #3 in Nolan Schaefer, but inexplicably traded him away too.
Nabokov will still provide them quality starts for most of the season. But for those back-to-back games and other days when he needs rest, who will turn to? Thomas Greiss? Dmitri Patzold? They might have potential, but neither has played a single minute in the NHL. And like I've said before, goalies need time to mature.
Doug Wilson is a smart GM. He's built a contender, and for the long haul too. The Sharks are a trendy pre-season pick to win it all. They've got scoring, some toughness, a decent, maturing defense (our old friend Craig Rivet will help there) and excellent starting goaltending. But their Achilles heel, IMO, is their backup goaltending.
That is the Habs' overwhelming strength. And the Sharks are strong where the Habs are weak -- big forwards who can put the puck in the net. Now I don't see Joe Thornton, Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo or Patrick Marleau coming over. Halak just isn't worth that much, at least not now.
But maybe Steve Bernier? He fills that big hole on the top two lines, plus he's right handed. The fact that he's French-Canadian is just gravy. Imagine him and Latendresse lining up on either side of Saku Koivu. I like it.
Others have suggested Ryan Clowe, who showed up big in last year's playoffs. He started on the fourth line, and ended on the first and second lines.
A trade to a Pacific Division rival makes all sorts of sense too, although I thought it would be LA. Well, we'll see how this all plays out.
And it makes a certain amount of sense. The Sharks once were the envy of most of the NHL for their goaltending situation. They basically had two #1 goalies in Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala. And this was after trading away Mikka Kiprusoff (yikes! Who pulled the trigger on that one?!). They also had a very capable #3 in Nolan Schaefer, but inexplicably traded him away too.
Nabokov will still provide them quality starts for most of the season. But for those back-to-back games and other days when he needs rest, who will turn to? Thomas Greiss? Dmitri Patzold? They might have potential, but neither has played a single minute in the NHL. And like I've said before, goalies need time to mature.
Doug Wilson is a smart GM. He's built a contender, and for the long haul too. The Sharks are a trendy pre-season pick to win it all. They've got scoring, some toughness, a decent, maturing defense (our old friend Craig Rivet will help there) and excellent starting goaltending. But their Achilles heel, IMO, is their backup goaltending.
That is the Habs' overwhelming strength. And the Sharks are strong where the Habs are weak -- big forwards who can put the puck in the net. Now I don't see Joe Thornton, Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo or Patrick Marleau coming over. Halak just isn't worth that much, at least not now.
But maybe Steve Bernier? He fills that big hole on the top two lines, plus he's right handed. The fact that he's French-Canadian is just gravy. Imagine him and Latendresse lining up on either side of Saku Koivu. I like it.
Others have suggested Ryan Clowe, who showed up big in last year's playoffs. He started on the fourth line, and ended on the first and second lines.
A trade to a Pacific Division rival makes all sorts of sense too, although I thought it would be LA. Well, we'll see how this all plays out.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Rumors and innuendo
Ok, I'm diverting from my incisive and definitive position-by-position analysis of the Habs to present a totally unsubstantiated, completely fabricated rumor that I'd like to start. See, I write this blog, so I get to take off on any wild tangent I want.
Actually, it's not so wild. It does relate to the last post in that I talked about how the Habs' biggest strength going into the 2007-08 season is goaltending. So here it is: Bob Gainey is considering sending Cristobal Huet back to the Kings for Alexander Frolov.
No, I'm not a total nutjob, I swear (I think? Would a nutjob ever admit to being a nutjob?). There is some substance to this.
The Kings desperately need a starting goalie, and my take is that letting Garon walk was part of Kings GM Dean Lombardi's plan to snag a proven #1 goalie. Lombardi is no dummy, and knows contenders are built from the goalie on out. Remember, he's the guy that drafted both Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov, but wasn't the guy who traded Mikka Kiprusoff for a 2nd round pick (that was Lombardi's successor).
But so far, Lombardi's offseason has focused on the blueline, adding two former Sharks in Tom Preissing and Brad Stuart. Preissing had an impressive season with the Sens, posting a whopping +40. Stuart was one of the key pieces in the Joe Thornton trade, and will surely be a top 4 dman in La La land. Lombardi also added veteran Jon Klemm, for added depth. Now add returnees Rob Blake, Lubomir Visnovsky, Jack Johnson and Jaroslav Modry, and LA's defense looks much better than last year -- at least on paper.
So Lombardi's blueline appears to be in better shape, but he let his best goalie go. Why? Does he really think that career backups JS Aubin, Dan Cloutier and Jason LaBarbera will suddenly transform into starting material? Well, I guess it is LA, and perhaps the Hollywood vibe has gone to his head.
Or maybe because he thinks there are other options, via trade. He would have loved to snag one of his former goalies from the Sharks, but no way Doug Wilson is going to let either one play against him 8 times a year. So Toskala was shipped to the Leafs. The Ducks also have a couple of #1's. Ilya Bryzgalov would be a great fit in LA, but the same intra-division trade story there; Brian Burke wouldn't do it.
But if Carey Price forces Gainey's hand, then he'd first shop either Halak or Huet out west, for the same reason neither Burke nor Wilson would want to deal with Lombardi.
So why Huet? Why not Halak? Huet is a proven commodity. Halak has loads of potential, but won't bring back as much as Huet will. And I'd assume that if Price is ready for the big time, Carbo's not going to want him riding the bench.
Still, it could be Halak that goes. As I said in my last post, Huet will need lots of rest if he is to play a full season. That would allow a youngster like Price enough playing time. But Lombardi would want more than just Halak. Maybe Alexei Kovalev? Nah, Lombardi ain't dumb. Maybe Andrei Kostitsyn? That would suck, but I think Lombardi would want a right hander. Lombo has been carefully balancing his team much like Gainey has, picking up right handers where possible. If you look at the 3 dmen he signed, two were righties (Preissing and Klemm). Add Blake, and you've got 3 righties that can play every night.
So why Frolov? The Habs need a big, right handed sniper to play alongside Koivu. Frolov fits the bill perfectly. He led the Kings in goals with 35 last year. Not to jinx him, but as a right handed left winger he fits (on paper) with Kovalev, a left handed right winger. Of course, Sergei Samsonov was supposed to fill the exact same role too. I don't think that turned out too well.
But let's not let that one analogy ruin a perfectly good rumor. Suffice it to say that the Habs need big right handed dudes that can put the puck in the net. Those aren't exactly a dime a dozen. And with the Kings need for a #1 netminder, this rumor has some legs.
Actually, it's not so wild. It does relate to the last post in that I talked about how the Habs' biggest strength going into the 2007-08 season is goaltending. So here it is: Bob Gainey is considering sending Cristobal Huet back to the Kings for Alexander Frolov.
No, I'm not a total nutjob, I swear (I think? Would a nutjob ever admit to being a nutjob?). There is some substance to this.
The Kings desperately need a starting goalie, and my take is that letting Garon walk was part of Kings GM Dean Lombardi's plan to snag a proven #1 goalie. Lombardi is no dummy, and knows contenders are built from the goalie on out. Remember, he's the guy that drafted both Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov, but wasn't the guy who traded Mikka Kiprusoff for a 2nd round pick (that was Lombardi's successor).
But so far, Lombardi's offseason has focused on the blueline, adding two former Sharks in Tom Preissing and Brad Stuart. Preissing had an impressive season with the Sens, posting a whopping +40. Stuart was one of the key pieces in the Joe Thornton trade, and will surely be a top 4 dman in La La land. Lombardi also added veteran Jon Klemm, for added depth. Now add returnees Rob Blake, Lubomir Visnovsky, Jack Johnson and Jaroslav Modry, and LA's defense looks much better than last year -- at least on paper.
So Lombardi's blueline appears to be in better shape, but he let his best goalie go. Why? Does he really think that career backups JS Aubin, Dan Cloutier and Jason LaBarbera will suddenly transform into starting material? Well, I guess it is LA, and perhaps the Hollywood vibe has gone to his head.
Or maybe because he thinks there are other options, via trade. He would have loved to snag one of his former goalies from the Sharks, but no way Doug Wilson is going to let either one play against him 8 times a year. So Toskala was shipped to the Leafs. The Ducks also have a couple of #1's. Ilya Bryzgalov would be a great fit in LA, but the same intra-division trade story there; Brian Burke wouldn't do it.
But if Carey Price forces Gainey's hand, then he'd first shop either Halak or Huet out west, for the same reason neither Burke nor Wilson would want to deal with Lombardi.
So why Huet? Why not Halak? Huet is a proven commodity. Halak has loads of potential, but won't bring back as much as Huet will. And I'd assume that if Price is ready for the big time, Carbo's not going to want him riding the bench.
Still, it could be Halak that goes. As I said in my last post, Huet will need lots of rest if he is to play a full season. That would allow a youngster like Price enough playing time. But Lombardi would want more than just Halak. Maybe Alexei Kovalev? Nah, Lombardi ain't dumb. Maybe Andrei Kostitsyn? That would suck, but I think Lombardi would want a right hander. Lombo has been carefully balancing his team much like Gainey has, picking up right handers where possible. If you look at the 3 dmen he signed, two were righties (Preissing and Klemm). Add Blake, and you've got 3 righties that can play every night.
So why Frolov? The Habs need a big, right handed sniper to play alongside Koivu. Frolov fits the bill perfectly. He led the Kings in goals with 35 last year. Not to jinx him, but as a right handed left winger he fits (on paper) with Kovalev, a left handed right winger. Of course, Sergei Samsonov was supposed to fill the exact same role too. I don't think that turned out too well.
But let's not let that one analogy ruin a perfectly good rumor. Suffice it to say that the Habs need big right handed dudes that can put the puck in the net. Those aren't exactly a dime a dozen. And with the Kings need for a #1 netminder, this rumor has some legs.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Building a contender: goaltending
This is the first in an ongoing series, examining the Habs more or less line by line.
This post examines where any good GM ought to start when building a contender: between the pipes. The Habs are in as good a situation as any team going into this next season. Cristobal Huet is the incumbent starter. Since dethroning King Jose some time back, he has been at or near the top of the league in save percentage.
I'd argue that this is a more important stat than GAA, as it's typically a better indication of how good your defense is. Dominik Hasek was near the top last year in GAA, but faced a paltry amount of shots. And well he should, given the guys in front of him: Dany Markov, Nik Lidstrom, Chris Chelios, etc.
The Habs, on the other hand, didn't give much help on D. Souray and Rivet were great in the locker room, but are a little slow for today's NHL. And when injuries and illness hit, Janne Niinimaa as the veteran backup surely tried many a Habs' fan's pulmonary activity.
But back to Cristobal. He is a cool customer in the crease, seemingly always in position and therefore rarely in need of the spectacular save. The opposite could be said for his predecessor, who make many a highlight reel with his acrobatic saves. Huet doesn't have Jose's lateral mobility, so positioning is critical. How many times does the puck hit him squarely in the CH? He makes shooters look like they have bad aim, but I think they just wonder how he can always be in the right place at the right time.
As much as I admire his game, I have questions about Cristobal's ability to carry the load 65-70 games per year. He's never been a full time starter before his fortuitous landing in Habland. The year before, he took over mid-season and played only 36 games -- almost all of them in eye-opening form.
He started off last season not quite as well, allowing David Aebischer back into contention as the #1. But he rounded into form again only to fall apart in late December. He then tore his hamstring, and yet came back ahead of schedule late in the season. How's that for up and down?
My theory? He doesn't have the stamina for a full time goalie. Play him 2 out of every 3 starts or so, and that ought to give him the rest he needs.
And this plays right into the Canadiens' strengths: they have potentially three goalies who could capably back up Huet. Jaroslav Halak is the incumbent, a veritable Cristobal Jr: cool as ice in the nets, and usually impeccably positioned. He looks like he needs to learn some shooters' tendencies, but that will come with time.
Yann Danis is the oft-forgotten potential backup. Prior to last year, he was the Hamilton Bulldogs' go-to guy. That is, until Jaroslav started making noise last year. Then when Huet went down, Halak got the call over Danis. I remember seeing Danis as Theo's backup a few years back, and was impressed.
So I wouldn't blame him if he were a little frustrated. And it gets worse for him -- but good for the Habs. Danis now has to contend with not one young star in Halak, but also Carey Price. Bob drafted Price a few years back, puzzling many as he already had a Conn Smythe/Vezina winner locked up in a multi-year contract. But in any sport, you always draft the best player available. If you end up having an embarassment of riches at one position, then you work the trade market.
That's what will happen in Hab land, sooner or later. I think Bob will/should be patient with Price. It's never a good idea to rush a goalie. But if Price should prove his worth sooner rather than later, then someone's got to move. Price is only worth bringing up if he's ready to take over. If he's the goalie of the future, why have him riding the pine when he could be playing full time in Hamilton?
In my next post, I'll examine a possible trade scenario, one that will take advantage of the Habs' goaltending strength and take care of their most glaring weakness going into this season.
This post examines where any good GM ought to start when building a contender: between the pipes. The Habs are in as good a situation as any team going into this next season. Cristobal Huet is the incumbent starter. Since dethroning King Jose some time back, he has been at or near the top of the league in save percentage.
I'd argue that this is a more important stat than GAA, as it's typically a better indication of how good your defense is. Dominik Hasek was near the top last year in GAA, but faced a paltry amount of shots. And well he should, given the guys in front of him: Dany Markov, Nik Lidstrom, Chris Chelios, etc.
The Habs, on the other hand, didn't give much help on D. Souray and Rivet were great in the locker room, but are a little slow for today's NHL. And when injuries and illness hit, Janne Niinimaa as the veteran backup surely tried many a Habs' fan's pulmonary activity.
But back to Cristobal. He is a cool customer in the crease, seemingly always in position and therefore rarely in need of the spectacular save. The opposite could be said for his predecessor, who make many a highlight reel with his acrobatic saves. Huet doesn't have Jose's lateral mobility, so positioning is critical. How many times does the puck hit him squarely in the CH? He makes shooters look like they have bad aim, but I think they just wonder how he can always be in the right place at the right time.
As much as I admire his game, I have questions about Cristobal's ability to carry the load 65-70 games per year. He's never been a full time starter before his fortuitous landing in Habland. The year before, he took over mid-season and played only 36 games -- almost all of them in eye-opening form.
He started off last season not quite as well, allowing David Aebischer back into contention as the #1. But he rounded into form again only to fall apart in late December. He then tore his hamstring, and yet came back ahead of schedule late in the season. How's that for up and down?
My theory? He doesn't have the stamina for a full time goalie. Play him 2 out of every 3 starts or so, and that ought to give him the rest he needs.
And this plays right into the Canadiens' strengths: they have potentially three goalies who could capably back up Huet. Jaroslav Halak is the incumbent, a veritable Cristobal Jr: cool as ice in the nets, and usually impeccably positioned. He looks like he needs to learn some shooters' tendencies, but that will come with time.
Yann Danis is the oft-forgotten potential backup. Prior to last year, he was the Hamilton Bulldogs' go-to guy. That is, until Jaroslav started making noise last year. Then when Huet went down, Halak got the call over Danis. I remember seeing Danis as Theo's backup a few years back, and was impressed.
So I wouldn't blame him if he were a little frustrated. And it gets worse for him -- but good for the Habs. Danis now has to contend with not one young star in Halak, but also Carey Price. Bob drafted Price a few years back, puzzling many as he already had a Conn Smythe/Vezina winner locked up in a multi-year contract. But in any sport, you always draft the best player available. If you end up having an embarassment of riches at one position, then you work the trade market.
That's what will happen in Hab land, sooner or later. I think Bob will/should be patient with Price. It's never a good idea to rush a goalie. But if Price should prove his worth sooner rather than later, then someone's got to move. Price is only worth bringing up if he's ready to take over. If he's the goalie of the future, why have him riding the pine when he could be playing full time in Hamilton?
In my next post, I'll examine a possible trade scenario, one that will take advantage of the Habs' goaltending strength and take care of their most glaring weakness going into this season.
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