Brisebois for Brown

The last post argued why the Habs should swing a trade for the Sharks' seldom-used Curtis Brown.

But who among the Habs would the Sharks want in return? From our vantage point, the Sharks are most in need of a backup goaltender with NHL experience and an offensive dman, preferably right handed. Turns out the Habs are well stocked with both: Yann Danis or Jaroslav Halak for the former, or Patrice Brisebois for the latter.

The low risk route for the Sharks is to get a backup goaltender. So far this year, Nabokov has played every game. Although he has done well, one wonders how long that can last. Martin Brodeur once played 78 games, and then into the playoffs. But that's Martin Brodeur. Nabokov doesn't have an ironman reputation.

Not having a proven backup is (usually) asking for trouble, but Sharks GM Doug Wilson traded the reliable Vesa Toskala to the Leafs before this season. Part of that was to unload Mark Bell, but most Sharks fans were left scratching their heads as to who would back up Nabokov for his days off and if injury were to occur.

The Habs could afford to part with either Danis or Halak at this point. The conventional thinking was that Huet would be allowed to walk next year and Price would be the #1. Halak or Danis would back up Price, with the other as a #3 should injury befall Price. But Price hasn't played all that well, certainly not enough to supplant Huet. Habs GM wouldn't be surprised if Bob were to send Price to the minors this season, and start the paperwork for re-signing Huet. If that were to happen, both Halak and Danis would still be plying their trade for the Bulldogs next season -- not an ideal situation for either.

But for all that, Habs GM thinks that Wilson would rather have Brisebois in exchange for Brown. The Sharks need someone like Brisebois to help their woeful offense and PP. For all his defensive deficiencies, Brisebois is fairly effective at moving the puck in the transition game -- crucial in today's NHL. Those same skills make him a good PP QB option.

The Sharks play exceptionally good defense, so Brisebois' adventures in his own zone would not hurt as much. The Sharks lead the league in GAA, doing so with a remarkably young defensive corps. They are also #2 on the PK. If there is one weakness, it is that they are all lefties, except for Craig Rivet. Balance on the blueline is essential.

Perhaps this is the reason the Sharks have not had more production from their blueline. Clearly, all their dmen are defensively responsible, and Nabokov is displaying All Star form. Brisebois would help on the offensive end, when healthy and when paired with a stay-at-home dman like Kyle McLaren.

And, as noted in the last post, the Sharks just need more goals in general. A better transition game would go a long way toward achieving this. Their 23rd ranked PP could also use the help.

No trade proposal is complete without a salary cap analysis. And this is the icing on the cake: Brown, Brisebois and Danis all make $700k per year, and all will be UFA's at the end of this season. Halak makes only $500k, so other considerations may have to be thrown in to make that deal balance out.

Downtown Curtis Brown

Carbo continues to show confidence in both his fourth line and his third defensive pairing. But that confidence hasn't been rewarded with exemplary play. Let's look at the last three games:

• Carbo had all five on the ice against the Rangers' Straka-Gomez-Jagr line (with disastrous consequences, as noted in the last post).
• He did it again against the Lightning's St. Louis-Prospal-Lecavalier line. This time the goal was almost entirely due to Bouillon and Gorges: an absolutely terrible exchange between the two in front of the Habs net, while the Lightning's entire top line was hovering around trying to create a turnover. No need. Gorges did it almost single-handedly.
• And against the Capitals, Carbo had Chipchura and Kostopolous as his #1 PK unit. On the Caps PP goal, Chipchura loses the draw, Nylander pulls the puck back to Ovechkin, who rips it past the helpless Price.

Now while Carbo can be taken to task for being overconfident in Chipchura, Dandenault, Kostopolous, Gorges and Bouillon, one could argue that he doesn't have much choice given his personnel. Indeed that was where we left things last time.

As noted in the last post, Carbo has struck upon a set of line combinations that on the one hand takes advantage of the roster's offensive talents but has also woefully exposed their defensive liabilities. This post is dedicated to a proposition that would rectify that situation: swing a trade with the San Jose Sharks for Curtis Brown.

Brown would be the missing link to Carbo's latest plan, allowing him to keep the first three lines intact, while gaining a much more effective fourth line -- one that would both excel as an "energy" line as well as having some defensive chops. Brown could probably center a line between Begin on the left and Kostopolous on the right.

Brown has always been a great faceoff guy, and a very good defensive forward as well. He's not the energy type of player one would normally see on a fourth line, but with him at center, Carbo would have an alternative to Koivu's or Lapierre's line for defensive zone draws. With his addition, the only truly defensively less-than-adequate line would be Plekanec's. If Carbo did get stuck with his 4th line out against Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson or the like, we all wouldn't have to wait for the inevitable red light to start flashing behind Huet's head. Brown's skills could also help the Habs' woeful PK, mired near the bottom of the league for most of the season.

Interestingly, Brown's strengths are exactly why the Sharks haven't used him much this year. They need goals, not defense. They are second in the league in goals allowed per game, but a shocking 22nd in goals scored per game (with Marleau, Cheechoo, Thornton and company??). They are also #1 in faceoff efficiency -- all without using Brown's skills in the faceoff circle.

And how exactly does this rectify the Habs' 3rd defensive pairings liabilities? There are already a number of guys, beyond Kostopolous and Begin who were vying for 4th line minutes. Smolinski, Chipchura, Dandenault and Streit specifically. Adding Brown further crowds the mix, no?

So Streit and Dandenault should move back to the blueline. Streit is an easy argument. He's extremely valuable as the #1 powerplay QB on the NHL's #1 powerplay. Find him some minutes, anywhere. Dandenault? Well, he was passable as a 6th dman last year. He was certainly better than Gorges or O'Byrne have been this year. And probably no worse defensively than Brisebois, though nowhere near as efficient on offense.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Dandenault. In fact, it might be better to keep Brisebois as the #6 dman, where his defensive liabilities would be minimized and his offensive skills used on the PP as the 2nd QB. But Brisebois is the guy the Sharks will want. This post is already way too long, so wait for the next posting to find out why.

All O, No D

Carbo's latest tinkerings with line combinations have at once taken advantage of the Habs' strengths, while laid bare their most glaring weakness. The lines go something like this:

Kostitsyn-Koivu-Latendresse
Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Ryder
Streit-Kostopolous-Dandenault

There are so many oddities about these lines:

1. Michael Ryder is playing again, after a few games as a healthy scratch. Ryder's situation deserves a post unto itself, so more on that later.
   
2. The fourth line has no real center and two defensemen on the wings.
   
3. All lefties on the "first" two lines, and only two on the "last" two.
4. Three scoring lines, and one energy line.
   

As odd as these combinations are, they are a small bit of genius given the Habs' dearth of anyone resembling a defensive forward. Carbo split up the three catalysts for the Habs' offense: Higgins, Koivu and Kovalev. With each driving their respective lines, other coaches can't figure out against whom to send their better units. Carbo also sends all lines on the forecheck constantly, except in the third period when they fall back into a trap-like defensive shell with a four or five goal lead.

And that is exactly when this bold plan's soft underbelly is exposed. None of these guys are bona fide shut down forwards. The plan's success in the early going is based on keeping the puck in the offensive zone, and creating pressure with a constant forecheck. With the game safely in hand after two periods, Carbo figures he can just play defense, and ride out the last 20 minutes. But while these lines excel at being the aggressor, they aren't so good at playing D. The result, over the three games these lines have been in effect? Outscoring the opposition 10-2 in the first two periods vs being outscored 5-3 in the last (including OT).

So why not just play the third period just like the first two? Carbo would appear to be trying to run up the score, a big no-no esp given the Habs' lack of an enforcer. So Carbo has to hope that the big early game leads will continue, and that his team (and esp his goalies) can hold on in the third.

Granted, the last game against the Rangers is a little atypical, and maybe one could argue that shouldn't be counted against this plan. After all, the Habs could only dress 19 players -- Corey Locke had an equipment bag snafu at Toronto's Pearson airport. The baggage guys there must be Leafs fans. But his absence didn't hurt as much as the guy he was supposed to replace: Saku Koivu, out with the flu. (Deja vu. Haven't the Habs' medical staff heard of flu shots?) .

Koivu is the Habs' best faceoff guy, for three years running now. The Rangers ruthlessly exposed the Habs' weakness in the faceoff circle, winning 68% of the draws. The most costly, of course, was Drury's win late in the third to tie the game. Lapierre's return has helped, but with Plekanec consistently losing more than he wins, the Habs desperately need someone to center that fourth line with a better faceoff percentage, esp take some defensive zone draws.

In the first two games (against the Lightning and Panthers) Carbo turned to Kostopolous, a winger who has lost about two draws for every win over the last three seasons. That's a pretty damning lack of confidence in Chipchura, who was a healthy scratch in both games.

But against the Rangers, without Koivu, Carbo had no choice but to play Chipchura. He was woefully not up to the job. His line was on the ice the for the first two goals, all ending up at -2. Of course it didn't help that Tom Renney recognized the mismatch and sent Straka-Gomez-Jagr out each time. On the first goal, Renney even caught Carbo with Chipchura's line as well as the third defensive unit, Bouillon and Gorges. Might as well have given them the goal and not bother with the formalities.

But there's not a whole lot Carbo can do about his fourth line, even when his guys are healthy. Bob needs to get him some help, esp to center that fourth line. And that is the subject of my next post.

Young blood

So Bob has finally listened to the masses and brought back Max. Not sure what took him so long, although some have suggested that Lapierre was only sent down to learn how to play right wing.

In any case, Max is back. Hardly the cure to all that ails the Habs these days, but certainly a step in the right direction. Grabovski was also sent down to make room, so maybe Bob does realize that the Habs need help on D, not O.

But in a surprise move, Bob also brought up Ryan O'Byrne. Many were upset that Bob signed Patrice Brisebois instead of keeping O'Byrne on the roster. Although I was a bit surpised (shocked?) myself, I thought it made a certain amount of sense. Both Brisebois and O'Byrne could play the right side, but Brisebois is the sort of puck-moving dman the Habs need, esp on the PP. Streit would be the #1 PP QB, but a #2 is always good.

If Brisebois could keep his defensive gaffes to a minimum, then it'd be a pretty good pickup, for a very minimal cap hit. And he certainly played that way early on. But then, as the team started it's recent slide, Brisebois reverted to his prior self. Not continuously, on every shift. But, man, were there some bad plays on his part.

But I assume that O'Byrne's promotion was not just about Brisebois' failures. Blueliners take time to mature, and another stint in the AHL could only help, one would think. As one of the leading dmen on the Bulldogs, O'Byrne has showed that he was ready. And with Hamrlik's expertise at bringing along youngsters, O'Byrne could be a perfect fit just when the Habs needed him.

Again, neither Lapierre nor O'Byrne will be the savior Habs fans have been looking for. But it certainly is a step in the right direction. The next step? For Carbo to realize that defense wins games, and that he needs to put together two decent checking lines. Sure, Bob has hamstrung him by not signing decent replacements for Bonk and Johnson (much less re-signing Bonk and Johnson themselves). But Carbo's got to play the cards he's been dealt, and stop blaming Ryder for all the team's ailments.

I'm thinking maybe two checking lines, looking something like this:
Chipchura-Smolinski-Kostopolous
Begin-Lapierre-Dandenault

Offense ain't the problem. It's D. Good defense -- including a good transition game -- is going to win games.

Bring back Max, part III

There's been some interesting talk around the Habs recently, most curiously stated by Guy Lafleur, my childhood idol. He said that the Habs roll out four fourth lines. Now, that's a wee bit exaggerated. I don't think Koivu, Kovalev, Plekanec or Higgins belong on a fourth or even third line. But on a team with the talent of, say, the Senators, they'd be doing a lot of second line work.

There was also some discussion over at the Theory of Ice along the same lines. For those of you not familiar, the Theory is the pre-eminent Habs blog out there today. Interestingly enough, Jeff (the author of the equally good, but now retired Sisu Hockey), commented at length about what he saw as some warning signs.

To sum up, he pointed out that Smolinski's line was Carbo's first choice for lining up against the opposition's top line. Koivu's line was second. So this explains to a large degree why Plekanec's line has been feasting, while Koivu's not so much.

Gainey and Carbo don't have many options. Like Jeff said (and Lafleur exaggerated), we don't have many legitimate checking line forwards. Begin and Kostopolous tend to be agitator types. Chipchura, Latendresse and Grabovski are all young, and need to learn the nuances of defense and other player's tendencies. Smolinski is a crafty, but not getting any younger veteran. Dandenault is trying to re-learn his forward position.

On talented teams, the above seven would be fourth liners. It's hard to admit it, but it's true. But this is the hand we've been dealt (although I still don't understand why we didn't keep Radek Bonk and Mike Johnson). So how to go forward?

I've complained about the Habs inability to keep the lead. On the most recent Theory posting, e posts some interesting stats about late game leads. And given Jeff's point about Koivu's line playing as a second checking line, I wonder if what we really need is a solid, second checking line option.

This would free up Koivu's line to play against third and fourth liners. Well, at home anyway. On the road, we wouldn't have the last change, so it wouldn't work as well. But it should still help I think, esp on line changing during the play.

We don't have a lot of options, given the player personnel listed above. But of those, the weakest links on defense are clearly Latendresse and Grabovski. So I say (again) bring back Max. He proved last year that he's got some defensive chops. And if he can't shut down an opposing forward, he can sure get under their skin (see every game vs Crosby) and provoke them to take a bad penalty or two. And since Murray has been gone, there's been a roster spot open.

I'd see those two checking lines going something like this:
Begin-Smolinksi-Dandenault
Chipchura-Lapierre-Kostopolous

Carbo might even be tempted to switch Smolinski and Lapierre, if only to keep some veteran/rookie balance. Plus, you'd get an all French Canadian line. Tabarnac!

Uh...

Somehow Habs GM seem to have missed what should have been big news: Ilya Bryzgalov placed on waivers by the Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks, and subsequently picked up by the goalie starved and division rival Phoenix Coyotes.

This was a real stunner to me. It's well known that the Ducks were stacked with talent between the pipes. I think the Ducks could have won the Cup with either Bryzgalov or Giguere last year. In fact, Bryzgalov played the early rounds until Giguere was ready to come back.

I can understand not wanting to keep him, maybe for salary cap reasons. But why not trade him? Placing a player of his caliber on waivers almost guarantees someone will pick him up, and you get nothing in return -- except the salary cap space.

And Brian Burke had to have known that Phoenix would be licking their chops (like a rabid coyote?) if they had the chance to grab Bryzgalov. After all, this is the same team that signed David Aebischer to a free-agent contract. I feel bad for Abby and how he imploded last year, but man, that's desperate.

And what has Bryzgalov done since landing in the Valley of the Sun? He's won every one of this three starts, after the Coyotes got shut out by the Sharks back-to-back. It's only three games, but he's got a 1.30 GAA and .952 save percentage -- including a shootout win over his former team last night. That's gotta hurt.

What would Habs GM have done? Try to swing a deal to an Eastern Conference team. The East teams most in need of goaltending help would be the Leafs, Thrashers or Lightning. Maybe Burke would have gotten only a draft pick or two out of the deal. But at least it would be something. And then he'd only have face his former goaltender once every other year, instead of potentially 8 times or more with the Coyotes.

And I thought Burke was a genius for putting together that Pronger trade. Maybe Stanley Cup hangovers affect GM's too.

Ryder about to bust loose?

There has been some talk on various Habs related sites about Michael Ryder. Some of the glass-half-empty crowd seem to ignore the Habs' hot start, almost 1/5 of the way through the season. Some question why Ryder should be on the first line, or even call for trading him altogether.

While he is prone to some outright silly plays, he is still the lone, legitimate sniper the Habs currently employ. When he forgets that, he tends to go into his prolonged slumps. But when he awakens, we see why he has led the Habs in goals scored the past two seasons.

The last game against Buffalo was illustrative of these two sides of Michael Ryder. On the downside, he seems to sometimes think he's the second coming of Alex Kovalev, trying to deke and fake out opponents while carrying the puck into the zone. Or he thinks he has Tomas Plekanec's speed, trying to blow past defenders on the right side. He is neither, and he should leave the puck carrying to Saku and the speed demon bit to Higgins.

But there were also a couple of instances in last night's game that made me think Ryder is starting to work again, trying to do the little things to get back on his game:

1. In the second period, he laid out Derek Roy with a mid-ice, shoulder check. At first, I thought that must have been Steve Begin. But no, it was #73.
   
2. On the first goal, he hustled back to the defensive zone to help cover for Andrei Markov -- and for Saku and Higgins, both of whom went to the bench. Markov, knowing he was covered defensively, was able to pick off the Buffalo entry pass. He fed it to Kostitsyn, who gave a nice feed to Plekanec for the game winner. All of this starts with Ryder hustling back on D.

So those are the little signs that Carbo must be pleased with. Enough to let Ryder stay on the top line, but probably not enough to quiet the vociferous few calling for a trade.