Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Round 1, Game 3: Bruins 4, Canadiens 2

Even when the Habs get a set of refs that seem tailor made to their makeshift lineup, they still can't pull it out. A sizable chunk of their skilled players -- Lang, Tanguay, Markov, Schneider -- can't play, due to one injury or another. That opens up space for the Habs' version of the Hansen brothers -- O'Byrne, Laraque, Stewart. And the refs misplace their whistles.

It all seems to come together for most of the first period. The Habs outhit, outmuscle and outplay the Bruins. But still they somehow manage to lose. Even without Lucic, the Bruins can play this game. They seemingly can play any game: Don Cherry style guts and glory, or Flying Frenchmen speed and skill.

The only thing that might come of this series is the opportunity for some of the youngsters to get a good dose of what playoff hockey is all about. That and maybe Bell Centre fans finding some class.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Round 1, Game 2: Bruins 5, Canadiens 1

Ouch. So much for the theory that if the games are called tight (or at least as tight as regular season games), then the Bruins size advantage would be outweighed by the Habs' skill advantage. Turns out the Bruins have more skill than the Habs -- or at least the Habs that showed up Saturday night.

Maybe part of it was that Gainey was juggling like crazy, more than the insane idea of lining up Laraque with Koivu and Kovalev. At least he finally came to his senses and put the big line back out at the end. Making things worse was Bouillon coming in -- then promptly going out. Thank God for Mathieu Dandenault. He's switched from RW to D more than once this year, mid game, and done well enough each time. That better be good enough to resign him.

Maybe the other part was that perhaps their most talented player -- Andrei Markov -- still couldn't play. The Habs have some skill up front, one line's worth anyway. But the blue line doesn't have that kind of skill without Markov.

In today's NHL, scoring from the blueline is critical. The Bruins, Sharks and Red Wings all have it. Sure, the Habs have Schneider and Brisebois, but both are defensive liabilities. Markov is the only player that can play both ends.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Round 1, Game 1: Bruins 4, Canadiens 2

Despite the outcome, Habs fans should be at least somewhat encouraged by the play of the Bleu, Blanc et Rouge. Despite all the warning signs of a rough-and-tumble series, both teams kept their emotions in check for the most part, and played decent hockey. The refs actually acted like they were being paid to enforce the rules, and called a good game by not letting the clutch-and-grab go unnoticed and keeping a free flow.

Their defense played pretty well, despite having a converted forward, an old fart who skates as fast as I do and another old fart who gets pushed off the puck easier than my 6 year old. Sure there were a few lapses, like Gorges' brain freeze of a cross check. He knows better, but it was probably just a matter of a little too much force applied to what was supposed to be an "I'm still here" reminder of a cross check.

One wonders what might be if Bouillon and especially Markov can return to the blue line. If the refs keep calling it tight, the series could very well tilt in the Habs' favor, where their skill and speed would be allowed room to operate.

For all these reasons, one hopes that Big Georges Laraque won't be skating on the first line again. And if Bouillon and/or Markov returns, Dandenault should move up front and nudge BGL out of the lineup altogether.

BGL was inserted to provide some toughness during these playoffs, and to protect the star players. Gainey signed him last off season for this very moment, after Philly and Boston both physically dominated the Habs last year. It's a decent strategy, esp with the Bruins adding more size themselves.

The problem is that BGL simply can't play hockey. He skates around in slow circles, mostly looking for someone to engage in some verbal jousting. And when he tries to play the body, he's usually not very successful -- he's so slow, there's plenty of time to get out of the way.

His stick handling skills are also atrocious. He was set up multiple times for some decent scoring chances, but couldn't even get a decent shot most of the time.

On the other hand, the man he swapped places with was the Habs' main offensive weapon. Tanguay had an assist, a game high +2, and would have had a PP goal had it not been for a pact-with-the-devil display of goaltending by Tim Thomas.

When Tanguay was on the ice -- no matter what line -- the ice started tilting toward the Bruins' end. This was obvious by mid-2nd period. And when Gainey had his big line out to start the 3rd, I had hope that he had seen it too. But Laraque soon resumed his position on Koivu's wing. Presumably he was there to give Kovalev and Koivu more room. It's hard to say if that worked, but it's almost a lock that Tanguay on that line would have resulted in better scoring chances.

Still, there is much reason for hope that this series might extend long enough for the Habs to get healthy and pull out a series win.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Paging Steve Begin

The Habs return to postseason play in dramatic fashion. Who woulda thunk they'd do it with the 7th or 8th seed?

Regardless, the Habs showed some fight in the penalty filled penultimate regular season game with Boston. And all this without Big Georges Laraque and Gregory Stewart. Still, they managed to hold their own. Kind of.

Which really should make a Habs fan wistful for Steve Begin. Here was a good old Quebec boy who hit everything in sight. And with the playoffs looming, this is exactly what the Habs need.

As much as any fan of pure skilled hockey must hate it, the playoffs are all about gritty play, hard hitting and garbage goals. Habs fans must still remember all the goalie interference penalties that went uncalled when Carolina beat the Habs in seven a few years back. Rod Brind'Amour was viewed as a playoff hero, but most of those "goals" would have actually resulted in penalties in the regular season.

For this reason, Lapierre's line will do especially well in the playoffs. Latendresse has the most skill on this line, although Lapierre can do his share of scoring. And Kostopolous is the lone holdover from the "Lunchbucket Line" last year.

It didn't have to be this way. Sure, the Habs got an experienced dman in return. And experience along the blueline is very valuable, as the Habs found out when three of their top 6 dmen were all out at the same time (Markov, Schneider and Bouillon). But the Habs also had Dandenault playing forward. One could argue whether Dandenault or Janik would be better suiting protecting the defensive zone. But having Begin in the same lineup and especially available for the playoffs, I think the argument tilts toward the fact that this was not a good trade.

Sure the Habs got Glen Metropolit without giving up players or picks (or pucks for that matter). He's almost identical in size to Begin: both are 6'0" and around 195 lbs. And both have posted eerily similar stats this year. Metropolit has 6 goals and 11 assists in 71 games, about .23 pts/game. Begin has 8 goals and 5 assists in 61 games, good for .21 pts/game.

Metropolit is a right handed shot, and Gainey has shown a preference for trying to rebalance the Habs lineup. But come playoffs, balanced shots are nice but grit and energy rule the day. This year, Begin is among the league leaders in hits per minutes played.

Metropolit? In some games he seems to shy away from hits.

And while Metropolit makes $300k less than Begin, his contract extends into next year. Begin could have been invited back for the same amount as Metropolit, should Gainey want to keep him.

Had Begin stuck around, he might be centering the line with Higgins and Dandenault. That would give the Habs two lines that play strong on the puck, dish out hits, and take hits to make a play. If those two lines are thrown out against some of the other, harder hitting lines of any almost any playoff opponent, the two skilled lines (esp Koivu's), might find a little more space on the ice to do what they do best.

Monday, March 9, 2009

Fired!

And about time, really. Carbo accomplished much, not the least being finishing first in the East last year after many pundits predicted the Habs might find it difficult to even make the playoffs. But he's made several puzzling decisions over the years. One area is how he treats the two players who have led them in goals scored since the lockout: Alexei Kovalev and Michael Ryder.

The differences in treatment couldn't have been more stark. Kovalev was (and has been) given all sorts of room to work through any sorts of slumps. If he was struggling offensively, Carbo simply gave him more time, as if to allow him as much time as possible to work through it on his own. But the only thing that seemed to work this season was when Gainey told him to not only sit out two games, but to just go home. Now that's a healthy scratch!

But Ryder's treatment was the polar opposite. Ryder was clearly struggling, and the past two seasons proved that he was a streaky scorer. But instead of riding it out and waiting for him to get it back in gear, Carbo benched him time and time again.

And all this while shuffling through various forwards in the effort to get a right handed shot on the power play. He even tried Bryan Smolinski several times -- while Ryder and his sniper shot sat in the press box. And with the way the PP was clicking last year, Ryder would almost certainly have gotten back in a groove sooner than later.

But perhaps the biggest proof for his failure is Ryder's runaway success with the Bruins under his old coach, Claude Julien. He has 23 goals in only 59 games. Even with the games missed due to injury, he seems well on his way to breaking his career record for goals.

Being the coach of the Habs is never easy. So one has to feel for Carbo for putting up with so much over the years, and now being so ignominously dumped. But it all boiled down to the fact that he didn't seem to have what it takes to motivate these players.

A word or two on Gainey's coach-selection strategy: he brought Carbo in as a rookie coach, having him stand with him behind the bench before he assumed the reins completely. Apparently the same is planned with Don Lever. Perhaps Gainey was impressed by the success of John Stevens in Philly and Bruce Boudreau in DC -- both promoted from the head coach position of each franchise's respective farm team.

Only time will tell if Gainey's strategy will work better the second time around.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Trade deadline 2009

At the beginning of this season, the Habs were well positioned for a playoff push, perhaps even improving on their surprising showing from the previous season and maintaining the number one seed in the East. The trades for Alex Tanguay and Robert Lang, two top six forwards, did much to create Cup anticipation amongst longtime Habs fans.

Unfortunately, injuries to key players and spotty goaltending have cast doubt on some of those lofty goals. Both Tanguay and Lang have been on IR for extended periods of time, as well as Koivu, Latendresse and Komisarek. Carey Price also was injured, only to come back as a shell of his former self. The Kostitsyn brothers and Kovalev sideshows, and constant trade rumors didn't do much for team psychology either.

But Gainey hasn't given up. Kovalev was given a two game sabbatical, and then came back with 7 pts in 3 games. Sergei Kostitsyn was shipped off to Hamilton. Mathieu Schneider rejoined the Habs for a couple of draft picks. Glen Metropolit was picked up off waivers. The Habs seem to have responded with aggressive defense, a vastly improved PP and most of all, Jaroslaa Halak's otherworldly goaltending.

Gainey's most recent move was somewhat surprising (or at least telling), as Metropolit still has another year on his contract. His pickup also solidifies Lapierre's role as the #3 center. One then wonders what will happen to Lang, a UFA in the off season, and a vital cog in the Habs offense this year. Like Lang, Metropolit also gives the Habs another right handed centerman, and is decent in the faceoff circle: he was the top faceoff man for the Flyers this year.

His pickup had repercussions: Steve Begin became expendable, and allowed Kyle Chipchura to be sent back to Hamilton -- no doubt for more seasoning. Chipchura's defensive play still needs work (-6 in 13 games), as well as taking draws (a woeful 43.9%). Metropolit buys Chipchura another year, and makes $300k less than Begin. Not much especially this late in the season, but still more breathing room under the cap.

The next Hab rumored to leave is Mathieu Dandenault. Also a UFA at the end of the year, he would seem to have more trade value as a two way player. Perhaps only Bob Gainey could get away with decreasing the "French content" of the beloved Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.

Still, if Dandenault were to leave, it would be either straight up for draft picks or packaged with picks and/or prospects for an impact player. Such an impact player would almost certainly be a top six forward, someone basically to replace the lost offense when Lang went down.

If Gainey were to do that, he would be essentially signaling a return to the three scoring line, one checking/energy line format. Since Lang's injury, Habs have been using old school lines: two scoring lines, one two-way/checking line, and an agitator/energy line, (more or less) something like this:

Higgins-Koivu-D'Agostini
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Pacioretty-Lapierre-Kostopoulos
Stewart-Metropolit-Laraque

If Gainey were to pick up a top six forward, Carbo could dramatically reshape his forward lines for the playoffs. Assuming both Tanguay and Latendresse come back before the playoffs, the new lines might look something like this:

Tanguay-Koivu-new RW?
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Latendresse
S.Kostitsyn/Pacioretty/Stewart-Metropolit-Kostopoulos

D'Agostini will almost certainly be sent down once Tanguay and Latendresse are back. While he goes to the net, has lightning speed and has that rare right handed shot ... he is completely lost defensively. This is where outside help is needed.

LW on the 4th line is a toss up: Kostitsyn has the most experience; Pacioretty has been solid and deserves a shot; Stewart provides toughness. Laraque will almost certainly not play -- he is far too plodding for the playoffs.

Kostopolous (favorite nickname: Nonstopolous) has been a fixture on Lapierre's right side for virtually the entire season, even on the PK (which is odd, given that both are right handed). But if Gainey wanted three scoring lines, Kostopolous has to go down one line.

So who might the new RW be? Given that Lapierre is the only right handed shot on the top three lines, one would think another right hander would be ideal. Bill Guerin fits the bill, has size and experience, and is being shopped by the Islanders. But the last time he was a playoff rental, it didn't go so well: -3 and a measly 2 assists in 9 games for the Sharks.

The more interesting rumor is Milan Hejduk. He's a proven scorer with a right handed shot. He's far removed from his 50 goal year, but his 50 pts would tie for the team lead right now, and his 23 goals would be tops. However, he's not exactly the type to drive to the net and get the typical playoff-type garbage goal. And he's still under contract for next year, at $4M/yr. With all the other UFA's Gainey has to sign, this trade would saddle the club even further.

Gainey might decide to stand pat, and not sacrifice future cap room or prospects for a single shot at the Cup. But how fun could that be?

Monday, January 12, 2009

Lecavalier rumours

TSN is trying to stir up some mid-season interest by circulating a rumour that Tampa Bay may be shopping Vincent Lecavalier and that the Habs are interested. Now the first part of that rumour may indeed be true. The Bolts committed way too much of the future cap space to just one player. Such was the reasoning for trading Brad Richards ($7.8M/yr through 2011) and Dan Boyle ($6.667M/yr through 2013) .

But Lecavalier is the one player that eats up most of the Bolts' cap space for the next few years. As the Tampa Bay brass is finding out, hockey is a team sport. You need more than just one superstar to carry the team. And if you're going to pay that kind of money, it better be for a true superstar who can change the outcome of any game almost single handedly.

There aren't many players like that, esp those that don't mind the pipes. But even then, even Luongo and Brodeur don't make that kind of money. And for those non-goalkeepers, there are only a few true game-changers like Ovechkin and Crosby.

And that's an interesting comparison. Ovechkin makes $9M/yr. So does Crosby -- and Malkin too. But Ovechkin is surrounded by cheap, young talent. Pittsburgh traded away all of that when they bet the farm on last year's Cup run. And as of this post, they are mired in the 10th spot in the East.

Instead, look at what Gainey has done in Montreal. No real superstars. But lots of balance across all the lines. And when top scorers like Koivu and Tanguay get hurt (or even a top 3 dman like Komisarek), they still don't miss a beat. Gainey has built a team with depth, and that can't be done in the cap era when you OD on a superstar.

And what would happen next year, when the likes of Koivu, Tanguay, Lang, Kovalev and Komisarek are all UFA's? How exactly are the Habs supposed to keep even some of that talent, AND pay Lecavalier AND keep winning? Sure the cap adjusts from year to year, but with this economy, it just might adjust downward.

So thanks, Tampa, but no thanks. Vinny and his enormous salary are simply not sustainable. While it would be nice to get one of the biggest Quebec-born stars in the bleu, blanc et rouge, such a move would be franchise suicide.