With a quarter of the season played, the last post looked at Bob Gainey's Extreme Habs Makeover. Most of it looked pretty good. A few bad moves, to be sure. And Gainey certainly got lucky by not re-signing a couple of players he had no business chasing in the first place.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
Showing posts with label Grabovski. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Grabovski. Show all posts
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Friday, December 7, 2007
Young blood
So Bob has finally listened to the masses and brought back Max. Not sure what took him so long, although some have suggested that Lapierre was only sent down to learn how to play right wing.
In any case, Max is back. Hardly the cure to all that ails the Habs these days, but certainly a step in the right direction. Grabovski was also sent down to make room, so maybe Bob does realize that the Habs need help on D, not O.
But in a surprise move, Bob also brought up Ryan O'Byrne. Many were upset that Bob signed Patrice Brisebois instead of keeping O'Byrne on the roster. Although I was a bit surpised (shocked?) myself, I thought it made a certain amount of sense. Both Brisebois and O'Byrne could play the right side, but Brisebois is the sort of puck-moving dman the Habs need, esp on the PP. Streit would be the #1 PP QB, but a #2 is always good.
If Brisebois could keep his defensive gaffes to a minimum, then it'd be a pretty good pickup, for a very minimal cap hit. And he certainly played that way early on. But then, as the team started it's recent slide, Brisebois reverted to his prior self. Not continuously, on every shift. But, man, were there some bad plays on his part.
But I assume that O'Byrne's promotion was not just about Brisebois' failures. Blueliners take time to mature, and another stint in the AHL could only help, one would think. As one of the leading dmen on the Bulldogs, O'Byrne has showed that he was ready. And with Hamrlik's expertise at bringing along youngsters, O'Byrne could be a perfect fit just when the Habs needed him.
Again, neither Lapierre nor O'Byrne will be the savior Habs fans have been looking for. But it certainly is a step in the right direction. The next step? For Carbo to realize that defense wins games, and that he needs to put together two decent checking lines. Sure, Bob has hamstrung him by not signing decent replacements for Bonk and Johnson (much less re-signing Bonk and Johnson themselves). But Carbo's got to play the cards he's been dealt, and stop blaming Ryder for all the team's ailments.
I'm thinking maybe two checking lines, looking something like this:
Chipchura-Smolinski-Kostopolous
Begin-Lapierre-Dandenault
Offense ain't the problem. It's D. Good defense -- including a good transition game -- is going to win games.
In any case, Max is back. Hardly the cure to all that ails the Habs these days, but certainly a step in the right direction. Grabovski was also sent down to make room, so maybe Bob does realize that the Habs need help on D, not O.
But in a surprise move, Bob also brought up Ryan O'Byrne. Many were upset that Bob signed Patrice Brisebois instead of keeping O'Byrne on the roster. Although I was a bit surpised (shocked?) myself, I thought it made a certain amount of sense. Both Brisebois and O'Byrne could play the right side, but Brisebois is the sort of puck-moving dman the Habs need, esp on the PP. Streit would be the #1 PP QB, but a #2 is always good.
If Brisebois could keep his defensive gaffes to a minimum, then it'd be a pretty good pickup, for a very minimal cap hit. And he certainly played that way early on. But then, as the team started it's recent slide, Brisebois reverted to his prior self. Not continuously, on every shift. But, man, were there some bad plays on his part.
But I assume that O'Byrne's promotion was not just about Brisebois' failures. Blueliners take time to mature, and another stint in the AHL could only help, one would think. As one of the leading dmen on the Bulldogs, O'Byrne has showed that he was ready. And with Hamrlik's expertise at bringing along youngsters, O'Byrne could be a perfect fit just when the Habs needed him.
Again, neither Lapierre nor O'Byrne will be the savior Habs fans have been looking for. But it certainly is a step in the right direction. The next step? For Carbo to realize that defense wins games, and that he needs to put together two decent checking lines. Sure, Bob has hamstrung him by not signing decent replacements for Bonk and Johnson (much less re-signing Bonk and Johnson themselves). But Carbo's got to play the cards he's been dealt, and stop blaming Ryder for all the team's ailments.
I'm thinking maybe two checking lines, looking something like this:
Chipchura-Smolinski-Kostopolous
Begin-Lapierre-Dandenault
Offense ain't the problem. It's D. Good defense -- including a good transition game -- is going to win games.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Keeping an Even Keel
I think the title of this post is some sort of sailing term, whereby a sailboat is kept from rocking to and fro by a steady hand upon the keel. Whatever that is.
A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.
To be sure, it certainly does look good:
But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.
Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:
But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.
But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.
Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.
A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.
To be sure, it certainly does look good:
- #1 power play in the land
- #5 in the Hab-hating TSN power ranking
- Points all around, sprinkled like fairy dust upon checking line forward and highly paid sniper alike.
- Plekanec and Kovalev making beautiful plays, instead of one mystifying the other like last year.
- Kovalev still on pace for a 40 goal season, 1/8 of the way through the campaign.
- Andrei Markov: quite simply, the bargain of the year. Second in scoring, multiple game winning goals, and ice time leader. All for millions less than Zdeno Chara.
- Youngsters Grabovski and especially Chipchura looking right at home in the NHL.
- Even Kostopolous turning his play around, without benefit of a benching.
- Mathieu Dandenault, opportunistic forechecker extraordinaire? May the surprises never cease, at least of the pleasant variety.
But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.
Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:
- Habs blow 3-0 lead over Pittsburgh, before Price puts the entire team on his back and wins in the shootout.
- Habs take 5-1 lead over Carolina, but then let them creep back to within two goals before sealing it with the empty netter.
- In Ottawa, they manage to scramble back to tie it at 3-3, but then give it away seconds later with 6 mins left in the game.
- Habs have a slight 1-0 lead over Florida, but are otherwise dominating. They allow a late game tying goal, and then lost in the shootout.
- Habs take 3-1 lead over Toronto, but end up losing in OT to the Leafs of all teams. Ugh.
But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.
But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.
Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.
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