Showing posts with label Mara. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mara. Show all posts

Friday, July 30, 2010

The Alex Effect

Pierre Gauthier signed Alexandre Picard and Alex Henry this week, further bolstering the depth on an already strong blueline. In fact, defense is where the Habs are strongest.

In so doing, Gauthier no doubt learned from the drubbing that Philly handed them in the playoffs. The Flyers were hardly a fashionable pick to win the East, esp when they were down to their third-string goalie, and with a couple of injured top-6 forwards.

But an incredibly strong blueline corps carried them through, and were inexplicably able to take two games from the Blackhawks (who had superior goaltending and more talented forwards).

The Habs already had a deep set of NHL-ready defensemen, but chose to let go of Bergeron and Mara. It was doubtful that either would settle for the two-way deals that Picard and Henry signed, enabling the Habs to leave them in Hamilton until they might be needed. Yannick Weber and/or Mathieu Carle would be the only Bulldogs the Habs had that might be able to make the jump. But Picard especially leapfrogs those two, and enables the Habs to allow the younger set to more fully develop at the AHL level.

Bergeron especially should find a home on an NHL team. His kind of PP prowess would be valuable to some teams, even if he has to play as a 6th or even a 4th line forward. With the revelation that was PK Subban, the Habs simply didn't need him anymore.

As far as when Picard (or Henry, should the Habs need more of an enforcer-type) might be called up, mark February 1 on your calendar. That's when Hamrlik's limited no-trade clause expires. The Habs will then be free to trade him to any team, not just the six he specified before then.

Hamrlik carries a significant cap hit, but his salary will be mostly paid by that time. His contract also expires at the end of the year, so he might make an attractive piece for a team making a playoff push but needing a #3 or #4 dman who can play on the 2nd PP unit and provide stable defensive help. They get the help without the lingering cap hit, and could be free to negotiate a more suitable contract for a defenseman of his age and skill set (somewhere below Spacek's $3.833M/yr).

And with the cap space gained by the Hamrlik trade, Gauthier could get a top 6 forward from another team looking to gain some value from a UFA they know they won't/can't resign. That is, assuming the Habs are still contenders at that point. If not, Hamrlik will probably just be traded for draft picks and/or prospects.

But if the Habs are contending, who might be that soon-to-be UFA top 6 forward? It could be Simon Gagne, if the Yzerman-makeover in Tampa Bay doesn't pay playoff dividends in it's first year. Granted he has a full no-trade clause, but he might just waive it for another chance at the Cup. The numbers work at least: he makes $250k less than Hamrlik.

Still all of this only works if O'Byrne is ready. O'Byrne will start the season as the 7th, but could conceivably take Hamrlik's slot by early next year. Gauthier could then and call up Picard (or Henry) as their 7th.

But if O'Byrne isn't ready, and the Habs are still playoff contenders, expect Hamrlik to stay put.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Blueline outlook: all about the PK

And we're not talking penalty kill. PK Subban's playoff performance was a revelation, mostly in the good sense. Sure he had some Bergeron-esque adventures in the defensive zone. But these are the sorts of mistakes you expect from a 20 year old rookie.

And for that reason, we may have seen the end of Marc Andre Bergeron's tenure with the Habs. After all, at the end of the season, the Habs were carrying nine defenseman on their roster. Most teams only carry seven.

With the blueline depth the Habs currently have in the minors (Yannick Weber, Mathieu Carle, Shawn Belle, etc), they ought to be safe with carrying only 7 defensemen. Paul Mara will almost certainly be one of the nine to go.

But I think MAB's value on the PP and relatively light cap hit will keep him around. Instead look for Gauthier to move one of the more highly paid defensemen, especially since additional, more pricey help up front will be needed and UFA's and RFA's need to be re-signed.

Hamrlik and Markov are the most highly paid and trading either could help clear some cap space. But don't expect Markov to be traded. He proved his value to the club -- when he was out, the Habs struggled. Hamrlik is much more expendable, but it might be difficult to get someone to take on his salary.

Still, he is a veteran presence, and is often given credit for tutoring Dion Phaneuf during his stint in Calgary. He could fit in well on a team that is a little young on their blueline, which probably also means they have the cap space to fit him too.

One team that comes to mind are the Anaheim Ducks. They lost Pronger and Beauchemin last season, and this season may lose Niedermayer to retirement and Ward to free agency. That leaves them with Visnovsky as their sole veteran presence along the blue line.

The Ducks are also interesting because they have a plethora of young, big, right-handed forwards, exactly what the Habs lack. It's unlikely that they would part with Perry, Getzlaf or Ryan, and definitely not straight up for Hamrlik. But maybe a Lupul, Bodie or Brown? Lupul brings some cap issues in return, so other players would have to be involved. But he also brings more proven scoring prowess than the other two.

Gauthier might also consider trading Gill or Spacek, the next two most highly paid dmen. But both bring a lot of value relative to their cap hits, as evidenced during the playoffs. Gorges and O'Byrne are young, cheap and may be the new shut down pair for years to come. They're untouchable.

So next year, the defensive pairings may very well look like the following:
Markov-O'Byrne
Spacek-Subban
Gorges-Gill
Bergeron

Next up: analyzing the forward line needs.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Trade deadline 2010

As much as Gomez's contract is the single biggest albatross on the books right now, he probably won't be traded. Not with the Habs contending for a playoff spot, and Gomez dutifully (albeit expensively) centering the second line. Neither will Halak, not given his stellar clutch performances in the Olympics -- that kind of play will be needed in the next 20 games and come April.

No, there is another player who is 1) garnering interest; 2) will free up cap space for an additional acquisition this season; and 3) free up space for next season to sign various RFA's as well as Plekanec next year. That player is Hal Gill.

Gill's value in any one game can be correlated in inverse proportion to the number of skaters on the ice: 5-on-5, he's a liability; 5-on-3, his long reach can take away an entire side of of the ice. Further, his inability to skate is less evident in short-handed situations, esp when down 2 men. During those times, one needs positioning, reach and size more than foot speed.

And for this reason, the Penguins want him back -- and presumably others in the playoff hunt who need help on the PK. The Habs would do well to trade him. His $2.25M cap hit isn't much, but when added with the others that will come off the books next summer, it might be just enough to squeeze Plekanec in, as well as the minor raises due to various RFA's.

Gill may also be expendable because of the play of PK Subban. In his brief stint, Subban showed he was ready for the NHL. He might not be able to kill penalties like Gill, but his offensive prowess may more than offset that. Plus, on the odd occasion he did get beat on the defensive end, he quickly hustled back to get back in position.

There are other Habs who also may be expendable because of Subban, namely Bergeron and Mara. Bergeron would gain more interest because of his versatility and howitzer of a shot.

In return the Habs should be looking for more secondary scoring. When all four lines are clicking, an opposing coach will have difficulty determining matchups (see Canada's 4 game win streak to end the Olympics). The Plekanec and Gomez lines are settled, esp when Andrei Kostitsyn gets back. The fourth line could be comprised of Darche, Metropolit and Lapierre -- size, some speed and lots of grit. That leaves Moen, Sergei Kostitsyn and Dominic Moore for the third line.

While that line is defensively capable, it lacks much scoring punch -- aside from Kostitsyn. So it would be nice to ship Moore or Moen off for an upgrade on the offensive end, preferably someone with a right handed shot to balance out that line. And some size would be nice too.

That's a tall order, admittedly. But some combination of Gill, Mara, Bergeron and/or Moore (and maybe some prospects) could do the trick.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

A proposal, v. 2

Dallas isn't the only Western Conference team in need of a long term goaltending solution and with significant cap space to. St. Louis also fits that description.

The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.

So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.

But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.

Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.

The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.

And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.

But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.

So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:

Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre

Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.

That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA) -Gionta
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen

That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Extreme Habs Makeover: the good, the bad and the ugly

So here we are, 23 games into the season. After a poor start, the team is definitely on the upswing, overcoming extensive injuries with disciplined play and outstanding goaltending. So is Gainey's pre-season plan of going small and fast up front, and big and experienced on the blue line paying off? Most of the acquisitions (and deletions) were for the better. Some, just the opposite. And one in particular looks like it will haunt the Habs for years to come. A look at all of the pre-season changes:

The Good
First the acquisitions:

Mike Cammalleri: Leads the team in goals, despite being bounced around between the first and second lines. Bonus? Leads the team in +/-.

Brian Gionta: Second on the team in goals, and provides valuable leadership to boot. He won the Cup with New Jersey, and is the closest thing to a captain the Habs currently have.

Jaroslav Spacek: Leads all defensemen in +/- and second to defense partner Hamrlik in ATOI.

Travis Moen: His size has been effective in playing the kind of puck possession game Martin desires, and wears down opposing defenses with his aggressive forecheck (leads the team in hits). This sort of grinding style will pay off in the playoffs -- assuming the Habs reach the playoffs. Bonus? Cup-winning experience in Anaheim, and his unexpected offense.

Jacques Martin: Sure he's not a player, but he was a good hire. The players seems to be buying into his system, winning even with half the team as callups from Hamilton. Hockey can be won on talent alone, but it's discipline that usually gets you over the top.

Now the additions by subtraction:

Alex Kovalev: His inconsistency and drama are now Ottawa's problems. And yet Gainey was apparently ready to give him the same deal. If it weren't for some miscommunication, we'd have AK-27 instead of Gionta.

Mike Komisarek: Essentially replaced by the much steadier and cheaper (albeit less splashy) Jaroslav Spacek. Komisarek’s shortcomings have been commented upon before; no need to belabor the point. And yet he was another near Gainey re-signing, making me wonder if Gainey prefers highlight reel hockey rather than actual effectiveness.

Mathieu Schneider: He provided offense no doubt. But how often in playing the point on the PP did he let speedy forwards blow by him for a shorthanded chance?

Mathieu Dandenault and Francis Bouillon: These were decent 6th and 7th dmen, and Dandenault's versatility paid dividends. But it's time to give some of the youngsters a shot.

Tom Kostopolous and Robert Lang: Both players were solid in their respective contributions. Tom Nonstopolous was really best suited as a energy-providing 4th liner. Lang was a great contributor on the PP as the only right-handed scoring forward, but there’s simply no space on the roster for him.

The Bad
Again, acquisitions first:

Paul Mara: Leads the D in hits, but is last in blocked shots among d-men who have played every game. He brings experience and size, but takes minutes from youngsters. And it looks like Gainey could have had Bergeron for a cheaper price and better offense – although at a cost of more heart-stopping adventures in his own zone.

Hal Gill: Yes, he just won the Cup. But $4.5M over two years for essentially a 7th dman? Markov, Gorges, Hamrlik, Spacek, O'Byrne and even Bergeron, Mara and Leach have played better D. He is the proverbial pylon, albeit a Paul Bunyan-sized version.

Now, the deletions:
Saku Koivu: There should have been some transition from old to new, as witnessed by the Habs' extremely poor start. And no one has claimed the mantle of Captain, something that Koivu did with extraordinary skill. He would have been an effective 2nd line center behind Plekanec, and his faceoff skills are sorely missed.

Alex Tanguay: Yes, he passes when he should shoot. But the Habs were much more dynamic when he was in the lineup as he made just about any line click. He led the team in +/- and was second on the team in points per game despite only 16:05 ATOI. Plus, he was the closest thing to a hometown hero the Habs have iced since Jose Theodore.

The Ugly
Scott Gomez: He has played decent hockey (and so wasn't a bad acquisition), but he's just not worth what the Habs gave up. He has put up second line center numbers, but for franchise center money.

Worse, his signing handcuffs the Habs for years to come. Some have suggested that Gainey only made the trade so that Gionta would sign. But Gainey only turned to Gionta after he didn't hear anything from Kovalev’s agent – all days after the Gomez trade.

With all that cap space, Gainey could have signed Koivu and Tanguay. He could have kept Higgins (an effective penalty killer who was going UFA anyway) and one of his best blue line prospects in McDonagh. And he might have had Koivu and Tanguay for less money than each settled for in Tampa respectively, simply because a multi-year deal could have been offered.

And what of next offseason, when Plekanec and Metropolit go UFA> and Price and Lapierre are RFA's? Plekanec will almost certainly go elsewhere – especially since next year the cap will most likely shrink. The Habs will simply not be able to afford him. Heck, with a shrinking cap, they won’t be able to afford Metropolit. The Gomez trade in by itself may undo all the other good work done by Gainey this offseason.