What exactly was Peter Chiarelli thinking when he traded for Nathan Horton? The guy has tons of potential, but isn't worth the $4M cap hit he carries. Now of course, he's not exactly the waste of cap space that Michael Ryder turned out to be (also $4M). But for a team desperate to clear space, this wasn't a wise move.
So now Blake Wheeler, one of their up and coming stars, needs to be signed. An RFA, he was eligible for arbitration, and took it. Unfortunately, the Bruins only have $12, 229 in cap space after the Horton deal, according to capgeek.com. And with that $12, 229 Chiarelli needs to sign another three forwards. Given that the NHL minimum salary is $500,000, I'd say Chiarelli has a bit of a math problem.
But Chiarelli's problem could be Gauthier's opportunity. Despite some missteps (the Gomez trade in particular), the Habs are in decent cap shape. Could Gauthier swing a sign-and-trade deal for Wheeler?
It all depends on two things: how much the arbitrator gives to Wheeler and how much Price ultimately signs for. The latter could have been settled by now had Gauthier been a bit wiser in playing his cards. We've gone over this in the last few posts, so no need to revisit that subject again.
But what would Wheeler get? Mason Raymond recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a deal carrying a cap hit of $2.55M. Raymond is a bit smaller than Wheeler, a year older, one year's more NHL experience, and better stats: 25G/28A to Wheeler's 18G/20A in the same number of games. So based on Raymond's contract alone, Wheeler might get a deal worth $1.5M to $2M.
But the Habs only have $4.7M in cap space, and still need to sign Price and two forwards to fill out their roster. The only way this works is if Price signs for a reasonable $2.2M (his old cap hit), leaving $2.5M for Wheeler and another forward. That other forward would have to be someone like the diminutive but talented David Desharnais ($550K), leaving $1.95M for Wheeler.
And who would the Bruins take in return? Obviously they need some lower paid talent, so draft picks and/or raiding the Bulldogs' roster would be the only recourse. One could see Max Pacioretty ($910K) or Ben Maxwell ($850K), but Chiarelli would be wiser to aim for someone with potential but earning near the minimum. That might mean JT Wyman or Ryan Russell, each on one year deals for $550K.
But this all begs the question: why Wheeler? Everyone knows the Habs' main weakness is their lack of size up front. Wheeler addresses that with his 6-5, 205 lb frame. He's also right handed, and thus could take Kostitsyn's spot on the line with Cammalleri and Plekanec. That would push Kostitsyn into competition with Pouliot for the left wing spot on the second line -- a good thing since both players tend to disappear for stretches at a time, and both will be playing for a new contract.
The loser of that battle could then be pushed down to the third line, with Ellers in the middle and Lapierre on the right. That would give the Habs' much better scoring depth.
Showing posts with label Kostitsyn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kostitsyn. Show all posts
Monday, July 26, 2010
Saturday, July 17, 2010
What's Price worth?
The Habs have a few remaining pieces to round out their roster for next year, the biggest of which is RFA Carey Price. As reported here earlier, Gauthier probably made a huge blunder by trading Halak and not signing a decent goalie to replace him (Alex Auld certainly doesn't qualify). Gauthier had the right idea by trading Sergei Kostitsyn for essentially the negotiating rights to Dan Ellis (and Dustin Boyd), as Ellis was one of the better goalies available. Maybe not as good as Turco or Nabokov, but certainly on a second tier.
But he still managed to fumble away that opportunity, letting Ellis sign elsewhere for a mere $500k more than what he eventually signed Alex Auld for. Now Price's agent is in the driver's seat, knowing that his client is the undisputed #1 goaltender going forward.
But this mistake aside, what should Price be paid? His cap figure from his original contract stood at $2.2M. But that certainly was inflated by his potential, not by what he had actually accomplished.
And the Habs can't afford much more than that anyway. According to capgeek.com Gauthier has about $4.7M left to sign Price as well as add a couple of forwards. The site makes a few assumptions about who will actually make the roster, including Boyd and Lars Ellers. These are reasonable assumptions, so one only needs to figure out who the two remaining forwards would be to arrive at the remaining cap space for Price.
Those forwards could be any of the following:
But he still managed to fumble away that opportunity, letting Ellis sign elsewhere for a mere $500k more than what he eventually signed Alex Auld for. Now Price's agent is in the driver's seat, knowing that his client is the undisputed #1 goaltender going forward.
But this mistake aside, what should Price be paid? His cap figure from his original contract stood at $2.2M. But that certainly was inflated by his potential, not by what he had actually accomplished.
And the Habs can't afford much more than that anyway. According to capgeek.com Gauthier has about $4.7M left to sign Price as well as add a couple of forwards. The site makes a few assumptions about who will actually make the roster, including Boyd and Lars Ellers. These are reasonable assumptions, so one only needs to figure out who the two remaining forwards would be to arrive at the remaining cap space for Price.
Those forwards could be any of the following:
- Max Pacioretty ($910k cap hit), another first rounder who could push Benoit Pouliot, Tom Pyatt and Mathieu Darche for playing time.
- Ryan White ($850k), a gritty forward who would be the only right handed centerman on the team.
- Alexander Avtsin ($607k), a big right winger who will only make around $67k playing for the Bulldogs. He could have made much more staying in the KHL, so he must think his chances of sticking with the big club are fairly good.
- Ben Maxwell ($850k), who managed to grab a postseason roster spot with the Habs even though he could have been gaining valuable experience with the Bulldogs' own deep playoff run.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
2010-11 Habs
The Habs made quite a bit of headway in securing next year's lineup, by signing all of their RFA's except Price and Lapierre, and their lone must-sign UFA, Tomas Plekanec. Given these signings plus the Halak trade, the lineup for 2010-11 is taking shape.
The goaltending and defense situations are the most obvious. Price has been handed the reins again as starting goaltender (a big mistake on Gauthier's part, at least from a negotiation standpoint). Alex Auld will be his backup. Price has a lot of potential, and we'll see if he can live up to it, especially with the rule changes governing pad sizes.
On the blueline, both Mara and Bergeron will no doubt not be re-signed. Instead, Gauthier will go with Markov, Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges and Gill. O'Byrne will serve as the seventh. This gives Martin a better mix of left and right handed defensemen than last year. It also has a nice mix of youth and veteran experience, as well as stay at home types vs the offensive minded. This is clearly the strength of the Habs lineup.
Up front, the only changes are the UFA's that couldn't be re-signed due to cap issues: Moore and Metropolit. Moore was brought in to improve the Habs' percentages on faceoffs. He did a decent job in the regular season, but fell off precipitously in the playoffs. Lars Ellers will probably take his place, given his projection as a future second line center man.
Metropolit was a gritty fourth liner, and had a much needed right handed shot (used to good effect on the PP). But he doesn't fit with the Habs' desire for speed. Gauthier acquired and signed Dustin Boyd as a potential fourth line center man, but it says here that Boyd is just insurance in case Ryan White doesn't work out. White showed real promise last year, and would be the only right handed center in the lineup.
So that would probably leave the forward lines looking something like the following:
Kostitsyn is a RFA next year. This is his last chance to prove that he wasn't yet another first round bust for the Habs. There are a few others that could make the lineup and push players like Pouliot, White and Darche for playing time. Pacioretty and Boyd would be the most likely candidates to round out the lineup, but JT Wyman's size and right handed shot would fit nicely. Ben Maxwell is another candidate and got a long look last year, but rarely made an impact.
The goaltending and defense situations are the most obvious. Price has been handed the reins again as starting goaltender (a big mistake on Gauthier's part, at least from a negotiation standpoint). Alex Auld will be his backup. Price has a lot of potential, and we'll see if he can live up to it, especially with the rule changes governing pad sizes.
On the blueline, both Mara and Bergeron will no doubt not be re-signed. Instead, Gauthier will go with Markov, Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges and Gill. O'Byrne will serve as the seventh. This gives Martin a better mix of left and right handed defensemen than last year. It also has a nice mix of youth and veteran experience, as well as stay at home types vs the offensive minded. This is clearly the strength of the Habs lineup.
Up front, the only changes are the UFA's that couldn't be re-signed due to cap issues: Moore and Metropolit. Moore was brought in to improve the Habs' percentages on faceoffs. He did a decent job in the regular season, but fell off precipitously in the playoffs. Lars Ellers will probably take his place, given his projection as a future second line center man.
Metropolit was a gritty fourth liner, and had a much needed right handed shot (used to good effect on the PP). But he doesn't fit with the Habs' desire for speed. Gauthier acquired and signed Dustin Boyd as a potential fourth line center man, but it says here that Boyd is just insurance in case Ryan White doesn't work out. White showed real promise last year, and would be the only right handed center in the lineup.
So that would probably leave the forward lines looking something like the following:
Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta
Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta
Moen - Ellers - Lapierre
Pyatt - White - DarcheKostitsyn is a RFA next year. This is his last chance to prove that he wasn't yet another first round bust for the Habs. There are a few others that could make the lineup and push players like Pouliot, White and Darche for playing time. Pacioretty and Boyd would be the most likely candidates to round out the lineup, but JT Wyman's size and right handed shot would fit nicely. Ben Maxwell is another candidate and got a long look last year, but rarely made an impact.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Not as bad as it would seem
Trading your playoff MVP for a pair of prospects may not seem like the most shrewd opening move for Pierre Gauthier’s first offseason as Habs GM. But as we noted in our analysis of the Habs’ goaltending needs, small goalies like Halak were bound to be a bit of a risk. So while Halak may be worth more than two (highly rated) prospects, he also might be worth less. At least Gauthier covered his bets by trading him to a Western Conference team, where Halak would be less likely to haunt his former team, either in the regular season or the playoffs. And Gauthier did address some needs. The Habs are desperate for size up front, some scoring punch, and right handed shots. It’s too bad that all couldn’t be combined in the same player: if Ellers had Schultz’s size, grit and right handed shot, this would have been a much better deal. But Ellers may be the insurance Gauthier needs if he can’t sign Plekanec. Or if Gauthier can’t afford Plekanec by going after a big fish like Patrick Marleau instead. But the most likely reason for the trade is not the players received, but the cap space gained to both sign Plekanec and keep Hamrlik.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Post mortem
Well, that was a helluva ride. Given that they were the 16th seed, rising to the top four is well beyond anyone's expectations. Still, there is room to improve and the deep run into the playoffs exposed this team's strengths and weaknesses.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
A proposal, v. 2
Dallas isn't the only Western Conference team in need of a long term goaltending solution and with significant cap space to. St. Louis also fits that description.
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)-Gionta
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
Sunday, December 20, 2009
A proposal
So Jaroslav Halak wants out? With Carey Price solidifying his play (save his troublesome glove hand; use a broken-in mitt, Carey!), Halak is somewhat expendable. "Somewhat" because Price hasn't proven that he can't be a Brodeur-like iron man. Martin has tried, at least twice starting Price in both games of a back-to-back. And both times Price looked good in the opener, and somewhat suspect in the closer. To wit:
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Another look at the ugly
With a quarter of the season played, the last post looked at Bob Gainey's Extreme Habs Makeover. Most of it looked pretty good. A few bad moves, to be sure. And Gainey certainly got lucky by not re-signing a couple of players he had no business chasing in the first place.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Roster Moves: forwards
The forwards who played last year were all about speed and skill. Size and strength weren't as evident. While the Habs definitely need to keep the speed and skill (see Detroit, Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh), size and strength should also be added, where possible.
Those from last year that don't fit this model are Georges Laraque and Glen Metropolit. Laraque has plenty of size, but seemed reluctant to use it. He also has zero skill. And with the upcoming crackdown on fighting, his value is greatly diminished. Metropolit was on the smaller side, esp for a defensive forward, and had limited skill. He was also the only center to lose more than half of his faceoffs. He's a checking line center on a team that already has a more effective checking line center (Lapierre), and another on his way up (Chipchura). Both Laraque and Metropolit should be released or traded.
Gregory Stewart is similar, but should be re-signed and assigned to Hamilton. Like Laraque, he has zero skills, and is much smaller than Laraque. Still, he at least attempted to leverage whatever he had, and generally got under opponents' skin.
The rest is easy: every other UFA and RFA forward who played regular shifts last year should be re-signed. While that ensures another year of speed and skill, it also offers some (limited) opportunity to get bigger.
Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Max Pacioretty. He played responsible hockey last year with the big club, and showed flashes of being the power forward the Habs desperately need. Another player with size is Robert Lang. Hopefully he can return from that foot injury unscathed, although he was already maybe the slowest player last year -- and will turn 39 this year. But right handed, scoring centers are in short supply this offseason.
The Habs also should re-sign every man from their most potent line: Tanguay, Koivu and Kovalev. When on the ice, they were a good match for almost any line in hockey. Having Lang back will provide decent second line scoring, and provide good matchups against most opponents.
Plekanec centering the third line will be a bit like Patrice Bergeron centering the same line for the Bruins. Having that kind of scoring potential on the third line shows how deep the Habs can be. His dogged, hounding-the-puck style of play should also provide some defensive coverage, especially when paired with Chris Higgins.
Lapierre's line would then form maybe the best two-way line in all of hockey. They would provide defense, energy, size, and even a bit of scoring, especially from Latendresse and Lapierre. This line may have been the most consistent throughout the year, at least when healthy.
The lines might go something like this (free agents marked with asterisk):
*Tanguay-*Koivu-*Kovalev
Pacioretty-*Lang-A.Kostitsyn
Higgins-*Plekanec-D'Agostini
Latendresse-Lapierre-*Kostopolous
bench: Sergei Kostitsyn, *Dandenault
This lineup has a right handed shot in every line (except Lapierre's which has two). It also mixes the youngsters like Pacioretty and D'Agostini amongst the veterans. D'Agostini especially needs to play with players who are defensively responsible, and can help teach him that part of the game.
Plekanec's line is almost all speed. D'Agostini is probably the fastest on the team, followed by Higgins. They'll be tough to pin down, and will blow by many an attempted hip check.
Lang's line has quite a bit of size, although a bit slower than Plekanec's. But if Kostitsyn and Pacioretty hit like they can hit, this will be a tough line to play against. This especially applies to Kostitsyn, who can deliver big hits but doesn't seem willing to do so -- except when he's pissed off. If he had the attitude of his brother, he would be lethal.
Speaking of whom, his brother will hopefully have learned to control his emotions a bit better and should make the team again. He'd make a great backup should anyone on the top two lines go out. Dandenault would provide relief for the bottom two lines, esp if D'Agostini has defensive zone issues again. Dandenault also is the 8th defenseman, so he might be seeing plenty of playing time.
So there you have it. Not much different than last year sure, but this is essentially the team that took the Habs to their best first-half record ever -- before all the injuries hit. Why mess with a good thing? Besides, the UFA market isn't brimming with superstars. If any significant changes are to come, they would have to be via trade -- and we already addressed that unlikely scenario.
To come: crunching the numbers on the various signing scenarios.
Those from last year that don't fit this model are Georges Laraque and Glen Metropolit. Laraque has plenty of size, but seemed reluctant to use it. He also has zero skill. And with the upcoming crackdown on fighting, his value is greatly diminished. Metropolit was on the smaller side, esp for a defensive forward, and had limited skill. He was also the only center to lose more than half of his faceoffs. He's a checking line center on a team that already has a more effective checking line center (Lapierre), and another on his way up (Chipchura). Both Laraque and Metropolit should be released or traded.
Gregory Stewart is similar, but should be re-signed and assigned to Hamilton. Like Laraque, he has zero skills, and is much smaller than Laraque. Still, he at least attempted to leverage whatever he had, and generally got under opponents' skin.
The rest is easy: every other UFA and RFA forward who played regular shifts last year should be re-signed. While that ensures another year of speed and skill, it also offers some (limited) opportunity to get bigger.
Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Max Pacioretty. He played responsible hockey last year with the big club, and showed flashes of being the power forward the Habs desperately need. Another player with size is Robert Lang. Hopefully he can return from that foot injury unscathed, although he was already maybe the slowest player last year -- and will turn 39 this year. But right handed, scoring centers are in short supply this offseason.
The Habs also should re-sign every man from their most potent line: Tanguay, Koivu and Kovalev. When on the ice, they were a good match for almost any line in hockey. Having Lang back will provide decent second line scoring, and provide good matchups against most opponents.
Plekanec centering the third line will be a bit like Patrice Bergeron centering the same line for the Bruins. Having that kind of scoring potential on the third line shows how deep the Habs can be. His dogged, hounding-the-puck style of play should also provide some defensive coverage, especially when paired with Chris Higgins.
Lapierre's line would then form maybe the best two-way line in all of hockey. They would provide defense, energy, size, and even a bit of scoring, especially from Latendresse and Lapierre. This line may have been the most consistent throughout the year, at least when healthy.
The lines might go something like this (free agents marked with asterisk):
*Tanguay-*Koivu-*Kovalev
Pacioretty-*Lang-A.Kostitsyn
Higgins-*Plekanec-D'Agostini
Latendresse-Lapierre-*Kostopolous
bench: Sergei Kostitsyn, *Dandenault
This lineup has a right handed shot in every line (except Lapierre's which has two). It also mixes the youngsters like Pacioretty and D'Agostini amongst the veterans. D'Agostini especially needs to play with players who are defensively responsible, and can help teach him that part of the game.
Plekanec's line is almost all speed. D'Agostini is probably the fastest on the team, followed by Higgins. They'll be tough to pin down, and will blow by many an attempted hip check.
Lang's line has quite a bit of size, although a bit slower than Plekanec's. But if Kostitsyn and Pacioretty hit like they can hit, this will be a tough line to play against. This especially applies to Kostitsyn, who can deliver big hits but doesn't seem willing to do so -- except when he's pissed off. If he had the attitude of his brother, he would be lethal.
Speaking of whom, his brother will hopefully have learned to control his emotions a bit better and should make the team again. He'd make a great backup should anyone on the top two lines go out. Dandenault would provide relief for the bottom two lines, esp if D'Agostini has defensive zone issues again. Dandenault also is the 8th defenseman, so he might be seeing plenty of playing time.
So there you have it. Not much different than last year sure, but this is essentially the team that took the Habs to their best first-half record ever -- before all the injuries hit. Why mess with a good thing? Besides, the UFA market isn't brimming with superstars. If any significant changes are to come, they would have to be via trade -- and we already addressed that unlikely scenario.
To come: crunching the numbers on the various signing scenarios.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Trade deadline 2009
At the beginning of this season, the Habs were well positioned for a playoff push, perhaps even improving on their surprising showing from the previous season and maintaining the number one seed in the East. The trades for Alex Tanguay and Robert Lang, two top six forwards, did much to create Cup anticipation amongst longtime Habs fans.
Unfortunately, injuries to key players and spotty goaltending have cast doubt on some of those lofty goals. Both Tanguay and Lang have been on IR for extended periods of time, as well as Koivu, Latendresse and Komisarek. Carey Price also was injured, only to come back as a shell of his former self. The Kostitsyn brothers and Kovalev sideshows, and constant trade rumors didn't do much for team psychology either.
But Gainey hasn't given up. Kovalev was given a two game sabbatical, and then came back with 7 pts in 3 games. Sergei Kostitsyn was shipped off to Hamilton. Mathieu Schneider rejoined the Habs for a couple of draft picks. Glen Metropolit was picked up off waivers. The Habs seem to have responded with aggressive defense, a vastly improved PP and most of all, Jaroslaa Halak's otherworldly goaltending.
Gainey's most recent move was somewhat surprising (or at least telling), as Metropolit still has another year on his contract. His pickup also solidifies Lapierre's role as the #3 center. One then wonders what will happen to Lang, a UFA in the off season, and a vital cog in the Habs offense this year. Like Lang, Metropolit also gives the Habs another right handed centerman, and is decent in the faceoff circle: he was the top faceoff man for the Flyers this year.
His pickup had repercussions: Steve Begin became expendable, and allowed Kyle Chipchura to be sent back to Hamilton -- no doubt for more seasoning. Chipchura's defensive play still needs work (-6 in 13 games), as well as taking draws (a woeful 43.9%). Metropolit buys Chipchura another year, and makes $300k less than Begin. Not much especially this late in the season, but still more breathing room under the cap.
The next Hab rumored to leave is Mathieu Dandenault. Also a UFA at the end of the year, he would seem to have more trade value as a two way player. Perhaps only Bob Gainey could get away with decreasing the "French content" of the beloved Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.
Still, if Dandenault were to leave, it would be either straight up for draft picks or packaged with picks and/or prospects for an impact player. Such an impact player would almost certainly be a top six forward, someone basically to replace the lost offense when Lang went down.
If Gainey were to do that, he would be essentially signaling a return to the three scoring line, one checking/energy line format. Since Lang's injury, Habs have been using old school lines: two scoring lines, one two-way/checking line, and an agitator/energy line, (more or less) something like this:
Higgins-Koivu-D'Agostini
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Pacioretty-Lapierre-Kostopoulos
Stewart-Metropolit-Laraque
If Gainey were to pick up a top six forward, Carbo could dramatically reshape his forward lines for the playoffs. Assuming both Tanguay and Latendresse come back before the playoffs, the new lines might look something like this:
Tanguay-Koivu-new RW?
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Latendresse
S.Kostitsyn/Pacioretty/Stewart-Metropolit-Kostopoulos
D'Agostini will almost certainly be sent down once Tanguay and Latendresse are back. While he goes to the net, has lightning speed and has that rare right handed shot ... he is completely lost defensively. This is where outside help is needed.
LW on the 4th line is a toss up: Kostitsyn has the most experience; Pacioretty has been solid and deserves a shot; Stewart provides toughness. Laraque will almost certainly not play -- he is far too plodding for the playoffs.
Kostopolous (favorite nickname: Nonstopolous) has been a fixture on Lapierre's right side for virtually the entire season, even on the PK (which is odd, given that both are right handed). But if Gainey wanted three scoring lines, Kostopolous has to go down one line.
So who might the new RW be? Given that Lapierre is the only right handed shot on the top three lines, one would think another right hander would be ideal. Bill Guerin fits the bill, has size and experience, and is being shopped by the Islanders. But the last time he was a playoff rental, it didn't go so well: -3 and a measly 2 assists in 9 games for the Sharks.
The more interesting rumor is Milan Hejduk. He's a proven scorer with a right handed shot. He's far removed from his 50 goal year, but his 50 pts would tie for the team lead right now, and his 23 goals would be tops. However, he's not exactly the type to drive to the net and get the typical playoff-type garbage goal. And he's still under contract for next year, at $4M/yr. With all the other UFA's Gainey has to sign, this trade would saddle the club even further.
Gainey might decide to stand pat, and not sacrifice future cap room or prospects for a single shot at the Cup. But how fun could that be?
Unfortunately, injuries to key players and spotty goaltending have cast doubt on some of those lofty goals. Both Tanguay and Lang have been on IR for extended periods of time, as well as Koivu, Latendresse and Komisarek. Carey Price also was injured, only to come back as a shell of his former self. The Kostitsyn brothers and Kovalev sideshows, and constant trade rumors didn't do much for team psychology either.
But Gainey hasn't given up. Kovalev was given a two game sabbatical, and then came back with 7 pts in 3 games. Sergei Kostitsyn was shipped off to Hamilton. Mathieu Schneider rejoined the Habs for a couple of draft picks. Glen Metropolit was picked up off waivers. The Habs seem to have responded with aggressive defense, a vastly improved PP and most of all, Jaroslaa Halak's otherworldly goaltending.
Gainey's most recent move was somewhat surprising (or at least telling), as Metropolit still has another year on his contract. His pickup also solidifies Lapierre's role as the #3 center. One then wonders what will happen to Lang, a UFA in the off season, and a vital cog in the Habs offense this year. Like Lang, Metropolit also gives the Habs another right handed centerman, and is decent in the faceoff circle: he was the top faceoff man for the Flyers this year.
His pickup had repercussions: Steve Begin became expendable, and allowed Kyle Chipchura to be sent back to Hamilton -- no doubt for more seasoning. Chipchura's defensive play still needs work (-6 in 13 games), as well as taking draws (a woeful 43.9%). Metropolit buys Chipchura another year, and makes $300k less than Begin. Not much especially this late in the season, but still more breathing room under the cap.
The next Hab rumored to leave is Mathieu Dandenault. Also a UFA at the end of the year, he would seem to have more trade value as a two way player. Perhaps only Bob Gainey could get away with decreasing the "French content" of the beloved Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.
Still, if Dandenault were to leave, it would be either straight up for draft picks or packaged with picks and/or prospects for an impact player. Such an impact player would almost certainly be a top six forward, someone basically to replace the lost offense when Lang went down.
If Gainey were to do that, he would be essentially signaling a return to the three scoring line, one checking/energy line format. Since Lang's injury, Habs have been using old school lines: two scoring lines, one two-way/checking line, and an agitator/energy line, (more or less) something like this:
Higgins-Koivu-D'Agostini
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Pacioretty-Lapierre-Kostopoulos
Stewart-Metropolit-Laraque
If Gainey were to pick up a top six forward, Carbo could dramatically reshape his forward lines for the playoffs. Assuming both Tanguay and Latendresse come back before the playoffs, the new lines might look something like this:
Tanguay-Koivu-new RW?
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Latendresse
S.Kostitsyn/Pacioretty/Stewart-Metropolit-Kostopoulos
D'Agostini will almost certainly be sent down once Tanguay and Latendresse are back. While he goes to the net, has lightning speed and has that rare right handed shot ... he is completely lost defensively. This is where outside help is needed.
LW on the 4th line is a toss up: Kostitsyn has the most experience; Pacioretty has been solid and deserves a shot; Stewart provides toughness. Laraque will almost certainly not play -- he is far too plodding for the playoffs.
Kostopolous (favorite nickname: Nonstopolous) has been a fixture on Lapierre's right side for virtually the entire season, even on the PK (which is odd, given that both are right handed). But if Gainey wanted three scoring lines, Kostopolous has to go down one line.
So who might the new RW be? Given that Lapierre is the only right handed shot on the top three lines, one would think another right hander would be ideal. Bill Guerin fits the bill, has size and experience, and is being shopped by the Islanders. But the last time he was a playoff rental, it didn't go so well: -3 and a measly 2 assists in 9 games for the Sharks.
The more interesting rumor is Milan Hejduk. He's a proven scorer with a right handed shot. He's far removed from his 50 goal year, but his 50 pts would tie for the team lead right now, and his 23 goals would be tops. However, he's not exactly the type to drive to the net and get the typical playoff-type garbage goal. And he's still under contract for next year, at $4M/yr. With all the other UFA's Gainey has to sign, this trade would saddle the club even further.
Gainey might decide to stand pat, and not sacrifice future cap room or prospects for a single shot at the Cup. But how fun could that be?
Monday, October 29, 2007
Keeping an Even Keel
I think the title of this post is some sort of sailing term, whereby a sailboat is kept from rocking to and fro by a steady hand upon the keel. Whatever that is.
A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.
To be sure, it certainly does look good:
But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.
Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:
But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.
But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.
Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.
A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.
To be sure, it certainly does look good:
- #1 power play in the land
- #5 in the Hab-hating TSN power ranking
- Points all around, sprinkled like fairy dust upon checking line forward and highly paid sniper alike.
- Plekanec and Kovalev making beautiful plays, instead of one mystifying the other like last year.
- Kovalev still on pace for a 40 goal season, 1/8 of the way through the campaign.
- Andrei Markov: quite simply, the bargain of the year. Second in scoring, multiple game winning goals, and ice time leader. All for millions less than Zdeno Chara.
- Youngsters Grabovski and especially Chipchura looking right at home in the NHL.
- Even Kostopolous turning his play around, without benefit of a benching.
- Mathieu Dandenault, opportunistic forechecker extraordinaire? May the surprises never cease, at least of the pleasant variety.
But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.
Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:
- Habs blow 3-0 lead over Pittsburgh, before Price puts the entire team on his back and wins in the shootout.
- Habs take 5-1 lead over Carolina, but then let them creep back to within two goals before sealing it with the empty netter.
- In Ottawa, they manage to scramble back to tie it at 3-3, but then give it away seconds later with 6 mins left in the game.
- Habs have a slight 1-0 lead over Florida, but are otherwise dominating. They allow a late game tying goal, and then lost in the shootout.
- Habs take 3-1 lead over Toronto, but end up losing in OT to the Leafs of all teams. Ugh.
But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.
But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.
Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Scoring lines
I decided to write about the 1st and 2nd lines in one post, given the fluidity that often happens in trying to create mismatches with opponents and chemistry on the lines themselves.
Ok, the truth: I'm really late with this, and since the season starts tomorrow, I better get moving. I should have had all this done by now, and be on to commenting on what really happened.
So now I'm in the awkward position of having to pretend that the final cuts didn't happen, and stay in my little Habs GM bubble.
Here's what I foresaw happening for the Habs final scoring pairs:
1st: Kostitsyn-Koivu-Kovalev
2nd: Higgins-Plekanec-Ryder
All sorts of problems with these lines on the surface, but easily explainable:
The first line really only has Koivu in the mold of Plekanec and Higgins. Kostitsyn has shown some goal scoring ability, and has speed to boot. Kovalev is old and slow, but uses it to his advantage. He likes to trail the play, and with Koivu and Kostitsyn rushing forward quickly, that ought to leave him opportunities to grab rebounds, throw a nifty move or two and bury the puck.
Or at least that's the theory.
Ok, the truth: I'm really late with this, and since the season starts tomorrow, I better get moving. I should have had all this done by now, and be on to commenting on what really happened.
So now I'm in the awkward position of having to pretend that the final cuts didn't happen, and stay in my little Habs GM bubble.
Here's what I foresaw happening for the Habs final scoring pairs:
1st: Kostitsyn-Koivu-Kovalev
2nd: Higgins-Plekanec-Ryder
All sorts of problems with these lines on the surface, but easily explainable:
- Chris Higgins is our best left wing. What's he doing on the second line? The simple answer is balance. Scotty Bowman even weighed in last year, saying that the Habs would do best if they would split up Higgins from the rest of their top line and thereby force other teams to have to concentrate on one line or the other. Who am I to argue with Scotty?
- Only one right hander among 6 forwards? This isn't ideal to be certain. But that's what happens when you get a left-handed right winger with the kind of talent that Alexei Kovalev brings. Last year, the answer was to bring in a right-handed left winger by the name of Sergei Samsonov. That didn't work out so well. Then with Kovalev's sliding play, he ended up playing with the team's lone right-handed center, Maxim Lapierre. I don't see that happening again this year, so I put him on the top line. His pre-season play seemed to warrant the move anyway
- Kostitsyn playing on the top line? I just like they symmetry. Call it the KKK line. Ok, wait. Don't call it that.
The first line really only has Koivu in the mold of Plekanec and Higgins. Kostitsyn has shown some goal scoring ability, and has speed to boot. Kovalev is old and slow, but uses it to his advantage. He likes to trail the play, and with Koivu and Kostitsyn rushing forward quickly, that ought to leave him opportunities to grab rebounds, throw a nifty move or two and bury the puck.
Or at least that's the theory.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Righties and Lefties
Ok, one more tangent before I dive into the rest of the much anticipated dissection of the Habs' lineup. I promise. Ok, I don't promise. But I'll try.
When looking at lineups, I get a little obsessive about who is right handed and who is left handed. For good reason, at least as far as obsessions go. The Habs, like many teams, are a little heavy with left handers (more on that later). That's not good, as on any one forward line, or any one defensive pairing, you need a balance of lefties and righties.
Here's why: most players shoot and pass best on their forehand. Some are so dependent on one side, that they'll go to illegal lengths to change the curve of their stick. How many times have you seen someone set up perfectly on one side of the net, with both goalie and defenseman out of position? But he doesn't shoot. No, he wastes precious milliseconds spinning to his forehand to get a better shot. In some cases, that's all the goalie or defenseman needs to get back in position. Or if he does try to get off a backhander, it's so weak that it'd be lucky to go in the general direction of the net.
So for forwards, it's just a matter of odds. Not everyone is going to get a puck on their forehand in the offensive zone, even if you had all left-handed left wingers and right-handed right wingers. But if each line could have just one right hander, that'd be preferable, esp on the penalty kill.
But for blueliners, it's a necessity. It's just much easier to catch the puck hurtling around the boards on your forehand. And not just because that's the side where they're most comfortable. But also because the curve of the blade is better suited to catch the puck.
Bob realizes much the same thing. Look at who he has picked up the past couple of years: Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov, Aaron Downey, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous, and Brian Smolinski. All right handers. Even Hamrlik's signing could be attributed in part to restoring balance, as he's supposedly as good on his forehand as his backhand. In fact these types of players are preferable, as they aren't dependent on one side alone.
And Carbo has taken advantage of the rebalancing, esp with his defensive pairings. Last year, he paired up his dmen more or less like this (on the left are the lefties, the right are the righties):
Markov(L) - Komisarek(R)
Souray(L) - Rivet(R)
Bouillon(L) - Dandenault(R)
So Hamrlik's ambidextrous ability hasn't taken Souray's spot so much as Rivet's. I'll argue (later) that Streit will be the one to take Souray's spot in the top 4.
But why so many left handers? When I was growing up, I was always told to play with the stick that seemed most natural. For whatever reason, I felt most comfortable with the left handed sticks -- even though I wrote right handed, threw right handed, picked my nose right handed. Actually the latter was more of an ambidextrous activity, but you get my meaning.
I'm guessing that for whatever reason, most players feel comfortable from the left side. I doubt it has anything to do with the dominant side for other activities, ie, if you write right handed, then you play hockey left handed. From what I know only 10% of the world is left hand dominant, so hockey would have dreadfully few right handers. So how does it break down? Who knows?
When looking at lineups, I get a little obsessive about who is right handed and who is left handed. For good reason, at least as far as obsessions go. The Habs, like many teams, are a little heavy with left handers (more on that later). That's not good, as on any one forward line, or any one defensive pairing, you need a balance of lefties and righties.
Here's why: most players shoot and pass best on their forehand. Some are so dependent on one side, that they'll go to illegal lengths to change the curve of their stick. How many times have you seen someone set up perfectly on one side of the net, with both goalie and defenseman out of position? But he doesn't shoot. No, he wastes precious milliseconds spinning to his forehand to get a better shot. In some cases, that's all the goalie or defenseman needs to get back in position. Or if he does try to get off a backhander, it's so weak that it'd be lucky to go in the general direction of the net.
So for forwards, it's just a matter of odds. Not everyone is going to get a puck on their forehand in the offensive zone, even if you had all left-handed left wingers and right-handed right wingers. But if each line could have just one right hander, that'd be preferable, esp on the penalty kill.
But for blueliners, it's a necessity. It's just much easier to catch the puck hurtling around the boards on your forehand. And not just because that's the side where they're most comfortable. But also because the curve of the blade is better suited to catch the puck.
Bob realizes much the same thing. Look at who he has picked up the past couple of years: Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov, Aaron Downey, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous, and Brian Smolinski. All right handers. Even Hamrlik's signing could be attributed in part to restoring balance, as he's supposedly as good on his forehand as his backhand. In fact these types of players are preferable, as they aren't dependent on one side alone.
And Carbo has taken advantage of the rebalancing, esp with his defensive pairings. Last year, he paired up his dmen more or less like this (on the left are the lefties, the right are the righties):
Markov(L) - Komisarek(R)
Souray(L) - Rivet(R)
Bouillon(L) - Dandenault(R)
So Hamrlik's ambidextrous ability hasn't taken Souray's spot so much as Rivet's. I'll argue (later) that Streit will be the one to take Souray's spot in the top 4.
But why so many left handers? When I was growing up, I was always told to play with the stick that seemed most natural. For whatever reason, I felt most comfortable with the left handed sticks -- even though I wrote right handed, threw right handed, picked my nose right handed. Actually the latter was more of an ambidextrous activity, but you get my meaning.
I'm guessing that for whatever reason, most players feel comfortable from the left side. I doubt it has anything to do with the dominant side for other activities, ie, if you write right handed, then you play hockey left handed. From what I know only 10% of the world is left hand dominant, so hockey would have dreadfully few right handers. So how does it break down? Who knows?
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