What exactly was Peter Chiarelli thinking when he traded for Nathan Horton? The guy has tons of potential, but isn't worth the $4M cap hit he carries. Now of course, he's not exactly the waste of cap space that Michael Ryder turned out to be (also $4M). But for a team desperate to clear space, this wasn't a wise move.
So now Blake Wheeler, one of their up and coming stars, needs to be signed. An RFA, he was eligible for arbitration, and took it. Unfortunately, the Bruins only have $12, 229 in cap space after the Horton deal, according to capgeek.com. And with that $12, 229 Chiarelli needs to sign another three forwards. Given that the NHL minimum salary is $500,000, I'd say Chiarelli has a bit of a math problem.
But Chiarelli's problem could be Gauthier's opportunity. Despite some missteps (the Gomez trade in particular), the Habs are in decent cap shape. Could Gauthier swing a sign-and-trade deal for Wheeler?
It all depends on two things: how much the arbitrator gives to Wheeler and how much Price ultimately signs for. The latter could have been settled by now had Gauthier been a bit wiser in playing his cards. We've gone over this in the last few posts, so no need to revisit that subject again.
But what would Wheeler get? Mason Raymond recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a deal carrying a cap hit of $2.55M. Raymond is a bit smaller than Wheeler, a year older, one year's more NHL experience, and better stats: 25G/28A to Wheeler's 18G/20A in the same number of games. So based on Raymond's contract alone, Wheeler might get a deal worth $1.5M to $2M.
But the Habs only have $4.7M in cap space, and still need to sign Price and two forwards to fill out their roster. The only way this works is if Price signs for a reasonable $2.2M (his old cap hit), leaving $2.5M for Wheeler and another forward. That other forward would have to be someone like the diminutive but talented David Desharnais ($550K), leaving $1.95M for Wheeler.
And who would the Bruins take in return? Obviously they need some lower paid talent, so draft picks and/or raiding the Bulldogs' roster would be the only recourse. One could see Max Pacioretty ($910K) or Ben Maxwell ($850K), but Chiarelli would be wiser to aim for someone with potential but earning near the minimum. That might mean JT Wyman or Ryan Russell, each on one year deals for $550K.
But this all begs the question: why Wheeler? Everyone knows the Habs' main weakness is their lack of size up front. Wheeler addresses that with his 6-5, 205 lb frame. He's also right handed, and thus could take Kostitsyn's spot on the line with Cammalleri and Plekanec. That would push Kostitsyn into competition with Pouliot for the left wing spot on the second line -- a good thing since both players tend to disappear for stretches at a time, and both will be playing for a new contract.
The loser of that battle could then be pushed down to the third line, with Ellers in the middle and Lapierre on the right. That would give the Habs' much better scoring depth.
Showing posts with label Price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Price. Show all posts
Monday, July 26, 2010
Saturday, July 17, 2010
What's Price worth?
The Habs have a few remaining pieces to round out their roster for next year, the biggest of which is RFA Carey Price. As reported here earlier, Gauthier probably made a huge blunder by trading Halak and not signing a decent goalie to replace him (Alex Auld certainly doesn't qualify). Gauthier had the right idea by trading Sergei Kostitsyn for essentially the negotiating rights to Dan Ellis (and Dustin Boyd), as Ellis was one of the better goalies available. Maybe not as good as Turco or Nabokov, but certainly on a second tier.
But he still managed to fumble away that opportunity, letting Ellis sign elsewhere for a mere $500k more than what he eventually signed Alex Auld for. Now Price's agent is in the driver's seat, knowing that his client is the undisputed #1 goaltender going forward.
But this mistake aside, what should Price be paid? His cap figure from his original contract stood at $2.2M. But that certainly was inflated by his potential, not by what he had actually accomplished.
And the Habs can't afford much more than that anyway. According to capgeek.com Gauthier has about $4.7M left to sign Price as well as add a couple of forwards. The site makes a few assumptions about who will actually make the roster, including Boyd and Lars Ellers. These are reasonable assumptions, so one only needs to figure out who the two remaining forwards would be to arrive at the remaining cap space for Price.
Those forwards could be any of the following:
But he still managed to fumble away that opportunity, letting Ellis sign elsewhere for a mere $500k more than what he eventually signed Alex Auld for. Now Price's agent is in the driver's seat, knowing that his client is the undisputed #1 goaltender going forward.
But this mistake aside, what should Price be paid? His cap figure from his original contract stood at $2.2M. But that certainly was inflated by his potential, not by what he had actually accomplished.
And the Habs can't afford much more than that anyway. According to capgeek.com Gauthier has about $4.7M left to sign Price as well as add a couple of forwards. The site makes a few assumptions about who will actually make the roster, including Boyd and Lars Ellers. These are reasonable assumptions, so one only needs to figure out who the two remaining forwards would be to arrive at the remaining cap space for Price.
Those forwards could be any of the following:
- Max Pacioretty ($910k cap hit), another first rounder who could push Benoit Pouliot, Tom Pyatt and Mathieu Darche for playing time.
- Ryan White ($850k), a gritty forward who would be the only right handed centerman on the team.
- Alexander Avtsin ($607k), a big right winger who will only make around $67k playing for the Bulldogs. He could have made much more staying in the KHL, so he must think his chances of sticking with the big club are fairly good.
- Ben Maxwell ($850k), who managed to grab a postseason roster spot with the Habs even though he could have been gaining valuable experience with the Bulldogs' own deep playoff run.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
2010-11 Habs
The Habs made quite a bit of headway in securing next year's lineup, by signing all of their RFA's except Price and Lapierre, and their lone must-sign UFA, Tomas Plekanec. Given these signings plus the Halak trade, the lineup for 2010-11 is taking shape.
The goaltending and defense situations are the most obvious. Price has been handed the reins again as starting goaltender (a big mistake on Gauthier's part, at least from a negotiation standpoint). Alex Auld will be his backup. Price has a lot of potential, and we'll see if he can live up to it, especially with the rule changes governing pad sizes.
On the blueline, both Mara and Bergeron will no doubt not be re-signed. Instead, Gauthier will go with Markov, Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges and Gill. O'Byrne will serve as the seventh. This gives Martin a better mix of left and right handed defensemen than last year. It also has a nice mix of youth and veteran experience, as well as stay at home types vs the offensive minded. This is clearly the strength of the Habs lineup.
Up front, the only changes are the UFA's that couldn't be re-signed due to cap issues: Moore and Metropolit. Moore was brought in to improve the Habs' percentages on faceoffs. He did a decent job in the regular season, but fell off precipitously in the playoffs. Lars Ellers will probably take his place, given his projection as a future second line center man.
Metropolit was a gritty fourth liner, and had a much needed right handed shot (used to good effect on the PP). But he doesn't fit with the Habs' desire for speed. Gauthier acquired and signed Dustin Boyd as a potential fourth line center man, but it says here that Boyd is just insurance in case Ryan White doesn't work out. White showed real promise last year, and would be the only right handed center in the lineup.
So that would probably leave the forward lines looking something like the following:
Kostitsyn is a RFA next year. This is his last chance to prove that he wasn't yet another first round bust for the Habs. There are a few others that could make the lineup and push players like Pouliot, White and Darche for playing time. Pacioretty and Boyd would be the most likely candidates to round out the lineup, but JT Wyman's size and right handed shot would fit nicely. Ben Maxwell is another candidate and got a long look last year, but rarely made an impact.
The goaltending and defense situations are the most obvious. Price has been handed the reins again as starting goaltender (a big mistake on Gauthier's part, at least from a negotiation standpoint). Alex Auld will be his backup. Price has a lot of potential, and we'll see if he can live up to it, especially with the rule changes governing pad sizes.
On the blueline, both Mara and Bergeron will no doubt not be re-signed. Instead, Gauthier will go with Markov, Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges and Gill. O'Byrne will serve as the seventh. This gives Martin a better mix of left and right handed defensemen than last year. It also has a nice mix of youth and veteran experience, as well as stay at home types vs the offensive minded. This is clearly the strength of the Habs lineup.
Up front, the only changes are the UFA's that couldn't be re-signed due to cap issues: Moore and Metropolit. Moore was brought in to improve the Habs' percentages on faceoffs. He did a decent job in the regular season, but fell off precipitously in the playoffs. Lars Ellers will probably take his place, given his projection as a future second line center man.
Metropolit was a gritty fourth liner, and had a much needed right handed shot (used to good effect on the PP). But he doesn't fit with the Habs' desire for speed. Gauthier acquired and signed Dustin Boyd as a potential fourth line center man, but it says here that Boyd is just insurance in case Ryan White doesn't work out. White showed real promise last year, and would be the only right handed center in the lineup.
So that would probably leave the forward lines looking something like the following:
Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta
Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta
Moen - Ellers - Lapierre
Pyatt - White - DarcheKostitsyn is a RFA next year. This is his last chance to prove that he wasn't yet another first round bust for the Habs. There are a few others that could make the lineup and push players like Pouliot, White and Darche for playing time. Pacioretty and Boyd would be the most likely candidates to round out the lineup, but JT Wyman's size and right handed shot would fit nicely. Ben Maxwell is another candidate and got a long look last year, but rarely made an impact.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Overpaid, Pt II
In the last installment we examined the contract given to Tomas Plekanec. It looks like he was overpaid, especially for someone who hadn't hit the UFA market yet and wanted to stay a Hab.
Maybe the biggest impact of the Plekanec contract was on the backup goalie position. Earlier we presumed Gauthier wouldnt simply hand the keys over to Price, given Price's inconsistent play. So Gauthier traded malcontent Sergei Kostitsyn for essentially the negotiating rights to Dustin Boyd and, more importantly, Dan Ellis. Gauthier managed to sign Boyd, but Ellis went elsewhere -- for only $500k more than what the Habs ended up giving Alex Auld.
When one looks at the probable lineup for next year, its not hard to see that the Habs only had about $1M to offer a backup goaltender. But here's where the Plekanec contract comes back into play: if the Habs had $500k more in cap room, Ellis or (better yet) Johan Hedberg could have been in play. Both signed for $1.5M per and both are goalies with a much better track record than Auld. Even when Gauthier traded for the negotiating rights to Ellis, he still couldn't close the deal. Gauthier was probably trying to pitch the $1M cap hit contract, and Ellis knew he was worth more.
It doesnt stop there: now that Price's agent knows that Price is the man, his bargaining position suddenly got much better. And the Alex Auld signing only reinforced that position. If Ellis or Hedberg were signed instead, the message to Price and his agent would be: we still have options.
The Plekanec contract may have also affected how Gauthier could improve his corps of forwards. He wanted to leave it mostly intact, but obviously could not afford to re-sign Moore and Metropolit (at least not at their current salaries).
Still, the Habs desperately need size and some grit, something that was only provided consistently by Moen and Lapierre during the playoffs. And that size and grit was available, for a decent price: Adam Burish was signed by the Stars for only $1.15M in cap hit money. His Stanley Cup experience and right handed shot would have been an added bonus too. But instead the Habs signed Dustin Boyd, for $500K less.
So if Plekanec signs for a much more reasonable $4M per, the Habs would have had a chance at Burish, Ellis and Hedberg. Much better than Boyd and Auld.
Maybe the biggest impact of the Plekanec contract was on the backup goalie position. Earlier we presumed Gauthier wouldnt simply hand the keys over to Price, given Price's inconsistent play. So Gauthier traded malcontent Sergei Kostitsyn for essentially the negotiating rights to Dustin Boyd and, more importantly, Dan Ellis. Gauthier managed to sign Boyd, but Ellis went elsewhere -- for only $500k more than what the Habs ended up giving Alex Auld.
When one looks at the probable lineup for next year, its not hard to see that the Habs only had about $1M to offer a backup goaltender. But here's where the Plekanec contract comes back into play: if the Habs had $500k more in cap room, Ellis or (better yet) Johan Hedberg could have been in play. Both signed for $1.5M per and both are goalies with a much better track record than Auld. Even when Gauthier traded for the negotiating rights to Ellis, he still couldn't close the deal. Gauthier was probably trying to pitch the $1M cap hit contract, and Ellis knew he was worth more.
It doesnt stop there: now that Price's agent knows that Price is the man, his bargaining position suddenly got much better. And the Alex Auld signing only reinforced that position. If Ellis or Hedberg were signed instead, the message to Price and his agent would be: we still have options.
The Plekanec contract may have also affected how Gauthier could improve his corps of forwards. He wanted to leave it mostly intact, but obviously could not afford to re-sign Moore and Metropolit (at least not at their current salaries).
Still, the Habs desperately need size and some grit, something that was only provided consistently by Moen and Lapierre during the playoffs. And that size and grit was available, for a decent price: Adam Burish was signed by the Stars for only $1.15M in cap hit money. His Stanley Cup experience and right handed shot would have been an added bonus too. But instead the Habs signed Dustin Boyd, for $500K less.
So if Plekanec signs for a much more reasonable $4M per, the Habs would have had a chance at Burish, Ellis and Hedberg. Much better than Boyd and Auld.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Not as bad as it would seem
Trading your playoff MVP for a pair of prospects may not seem like the most shrewd opening move for Pierre Gauthier’s first offseason as Habs GM. But as we noted in our analysis of the Habs’ goaltending needs, small goalies like Halak were bound to be a bit of a risk. So while Halak may be worth more than two (highly rated) prospects, he also might be worth less. At least Gauthier covered his bets by trading him to a Western Conference team, where Halak would be less likely to haunt his former team, either in the regular season or the playoffs. And Gauthier did address some needs. The Habs are desperate for size up front, some scoring punch, and right handed shots. It’s too bad that all couldn’t be combined in the same player: if Ellers had Schultz’s size, grit and right handed shot, this would have been a much better deal. But Ellers may be the insurance Gauthier needs if he can’t sign Plekanec. Or if Gauthier can’t afford Plekanec by going after a big fish like Patrick Marleau instead. But the most likely reason for the trade is not the players received, but the cap space gained to both sign Plekanec and keep Hamrlik.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
As we suggested in our blueline analysis, Hamrlik would be likely traded to gain the necessary space to sign Plekanec, Halak, and the rest. Little did we guess that it would be Halak traded to keep Hamrlik and Plekanec. Now Martin gets to keep his outstanding blueline intact, with O’Byrne as the seventh – meaning Bergeron’s days with the Habs are most likely over.And from this perspective, the trade does make more sense. This offseason is chock full of established goalies that could be signed for a relative pittance. And signing one sooner than later would increase the pressure on Price's agent, instead of giving him free rein to assume Price is the automatic #1. And after his demotion to second string, Price can't assume anything.
Some have speculated that trading for the rumored-to-be-available Jeff Carter would be the better move. Certainly Carter would give the Habs a first line right winger with size and scoring punch. And he no doubt would have been the better pick than Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. But his contract carries a $5M cap hit, basically placing the Habs in the same position as they were before the Halak trade: trade either Hamrlik or Gomez to free up some space to sign Plekanec and other FA's.And perhaps that is the real end-game. Ellers has been talked up as a potential second line center. But the Habs already have Gomez and Plekanec. If Ellers turns out as Gauthier expects he will, then either Gomez or Plekanec will be expendable. And that will give the Habs much needed cap space in the 2011-12 season, when all the Habs dmen save O'Byrne and Subban will need to be re-signed.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
An Embarrassment of Riches
Today we look at the situation between the pipes. The Habs have two very good goalies. No, make that one outstanding goalie and another very good with a lot of promise. Both are young and restricted free agents this off-season.
As RFA's, the Habs could underpay them, offering them just enough to keep other teams at bay. Or the Habs could try to lock them up long term, beyond when they turn 27 and become eligible for UFA status. This would probably apply more to Halak (24 yrs old) than Price (22 yrs old).
But I don't think there will be any long term contracts for either, mostly because of rule changes next year. Goalie pads will now be regulated according to the size of the goalie. No more of those extra large pads that extend up to the goalie's waist.
The effect of those oversized pads was most noticeable with butterfly-style goalies. The pads closed up the five-hole, leaving the goalie free to use the paddle to cover up other areas.
One would think the rule change would affect Halak more than Price. After all, Price is a much bigger goalie than Halak, and covers up a lot of net with or without the large pads. But Halak showed a lot of mental toughness, especially during the playoffs.
Price hasn't shown that kind of toughness, given his propensity to let in a soft goal every so often. Still Price showed a lot of maturity in accepting his backup role, and could be seen encouraging Halak, practicing hard, and calling out teammates who didn't put in the necessary work. Even his two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in that one Washington game could be seen it this light. Sure he went a bit overboard with his team spirit, but knowing where the line is is something that comes with experience.
So while there is a lot of promise in their young netminders, there are a lot of question marks too. Bet on Gauthier offering a one or two year deal to Halak, in the $2M to $2.5M annual cap hit range. Price might get a longer contract, given his younger age, but at a lower annual cap hit. Maybe $1M to $1.5M?
These low amounts will also be necessary for Gauthier to re-sign most of his RFA's, as well as his important UFA's, none more important than Plekanec.
Up next: blue line changes.
As RFA's, the Habs could underpay them, offering them just enough to keep other teams at bay. Or the Habs could try to lock them up long term, beyond when they turn 27 and become eligible for UFA status. This would probably apply more to Halak (24 yrs old) than Price (22 yrs old).
But I don't think there will be any long term contracts for either, mostly because of rule changes next year. Goalie pads will now be regulated according to the size of the goalie. No more of those extra large pads that extend up to the goalie's waist.
The effect of those oversized pads was most noticeable with butterfly-style goalies. The pads closed up the five-hole, leaving the goalie free to use the paddle to cover up other areas.
One would think the rule change would affect Halak more than Price. After all, Price is a much bigger goalie than Halak, and covers up a lot of net with or without the large pads. But Halak showed a lot of mental toughness, especially during the playoffs.
Price hasn't shown that kind of toughness, given his propensity to let in a soft goal every so often. Still Price showed a lot of maturity in accepting his backup role, and could be seen encouraging Halak, practicing hard, and calling out teammates who didn't put in the necessary work. Even his two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in that one Washington game could be seen it this light. Sure he went a bit overboard with his team spirit, but knowing where the line is is something that comes with experience.
So while there is a lot of promise in their young netminders, there are a lot of question marks too. Bet on Gauthier offering a one or two year deal to Halak, in the $2M to $2.5M annual cap hit range. Price might get a longer contract, given his younger age, but at a lower annual cap hit. Maybe $1M to $1.5M?
These low amounts will also be necessary for Gauthier to re-sign most of his RFA's, as well as his important UFA's, none more important than Plekanec.
Up next: blue line changes.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Post mortem
Well, that was a helluva ride. Given that they were the 16th seed, rising to the top four is well beyond anyone's expectations. Still, there is room to improve and the deep run into the playoffs exposed this team's strengths and weaknesses.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
To rate the individual pieces, we don't need to go into the tangible qualities of speed, skill and size. We know the Habs need size. But the playoffs exposes those intangibles that aren't so readily seen, especially heart, grit and determination. And here the Habs had some players who stepped it up in that department, some who stayed level with their regular season play, and others who looked completely lost:
The Lost: Pouliot, A. Kostitsyn and Plekanec.
With three shutouts against a third-string goalie, the top six forwards should have been more present. But these three especially somehow couldn't get it done. Granted, they were thrown against some of the better forwards and defensive pairings, but that didn't stop Gionta and Cammalleri from lighting it up.
The Level: Subban, Markov, O'Byrne, Bergeron, Spacek, Darche, Moen, Gomez, Moore, Price and Hamrlik.
Hamrlik almost ended up in the Lost category, given how slow he looked esp on every one of the shorthanded goals the Habs gave up. But his +4 night in their lone win against the Flyers makes up for those.
Bergeron could have gone either way. As a PP specialist, he was a flameout. Still, this was due at least in part to the opposition's knowledge that they had to get high in his shooting lane. So he didn't have many opportunities. And with the injury to Markov, and the general lack of scoring, he had to play a lot at even strength -- and a league worst plus/minus to show for it.
Moore and Moen provided some timely goals on occasion. But Moore was brought in for his faceoff prowess, and ended up a team worst 41%. Moen finished second on the team in hitting, but his weren't of intimidating kind that the team leader (Lapierre) seemed to provide.
The Lionhearted: Gill, Gorges, Cammalleri, Gionta, Pyatt, Lapierre and Halak
Gill and Gorges shut down the world's best scorers night in and night out. Gionta and Cammalleri accounted for almost half the Habs' goals. Pyatt and Lapierre provided secondary scoring, speed, defense, hitting, and energy. And if enough of the rest of the team played like these guys, we would be talking about Halak as Conn Smythe trophy winner.
It's unfortunate that more didn't step up their game. But getting that far into the playoffs can be a rich learning experience for a fairly young team. Which bodes well for next year.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Oops, gotta go!
Such strange timing, even if one accepts Gainey's reasoning: a GM needs to be focused on the long term, and he doesn't see himself here for much longer. But if that's so, why not step down at the end of last season, when huge decisions had to be made about the future of the team?
To recap, half the team went UFA. He attempted to keep two: Kovalev and Komisarek. Both fortunately fled elsewhere for similar money, allowing Gainey to pick up better replacements: Gionta and Spacek. (Gainey seriously lucked out here). And then he let everyone else go, including replacing their long time captain with a similarly skilled centerman -- only to pay him twice as much. Or as Pierre LeBrun sums it up: "Mercy. The wrong center is making money in Montreal"
But Gainey now says he wants to let someone with a more long term commitment take over so that they can put their mark on the club? Sorry, bub, but you already did that -- and not very well either, given the Habs' tenuous hold on a playoff spot.
And that's actually worse than being a confirmed loser like the Leafs or Canes. At least they know they are sellers and have started rebuilding. The Habs have no idea what they will be before the March 3 trade deadline.
So now it will be Gauthier's problem to squeeze Tomas Plekanec under the cap. And so long as the Habs keep sniffing around a playoff spot, Gauthier will be forced to hold onto to Gomez, Gill, Halak and any other rumored departures. But he also can't sell off the future (including Price) for a short term rental, because even if they do get in, they're not going far.
To recap, half the team went UFA. He attempted to keep two: Kovalev and Komisarek. Both fortunately fled elsewhere for similar money, allowing Gainey to pick up better replacements: Gionta and Spacek. (Gainey seriously lucked out here). And then he let everyone else go, including replacing their long time captain with a similarly skilled centerman -- only to pay him twice as much. Or as Pierre LeBrun sums it up: "Mercy. The wrong center is making money in Montreal"
But Gainey now says he wants to let someone with a more long term commitment take over so that they can put their mark on the club? Sorry, bub, but you already did that -- and not very well either, given the Habs' tenuous hold on a playoff spot.
And that's actually worse than being a confirmed loser like the Leafs or Canes. At least they know they are sellers and have started rebuilding. The Habs have no idea what they will be before the March 3 trade deadline.
So now it will be Gauthier's problem to squeeze Tomas Plekanec under the cap. And so long as the Habs keep sniffing around a playoff spot, Gauthier will be forced to hold onto to Gomez, Gill, Halak and any other rumored departures. But he also can't sell off the future (including Price) for a short term rental, because even if they do get in, they're not going far.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
A proposal, v. 2
Dallas isn't the only Western Conference team in need of a long term goaltending solution and with significant cap space to. St. Louis also fits that description.
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)-Gionta
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
The Blues are on the cusp of a playoff berth, but most likely staying home come playoff time. The Western Conference is far too competitive. They also draw decent crowds, a surprising 8th in the league in average attendance and better than 98% full arenas. Since the NHL is a gate-driven league, they ought to be able to afford to pay near the cap limit -- but are almost $9M below this season.
So they could definitely afford the $7M+ hit that Gomez would bring (again, we're operating under the assumption that Gomez has to go in order for the Habs to free space to sign Plekanec and others). Gomez's almost point-per-game pace after lining up between Gionta and Pouliot also helps his trade value -- and the Blues could use another playmaking center to take some of the pressure off Andy McDonald.
But Gomez's better play of late still doesn't justify his salary. The Habs need to dangle Halak (Price?) to make any deal worth making.
Chris Mason is the Blues starting goaltender, but is 33 years old and a UFA this off season. He's not a long (or even medium) -term solution. He is posting respectable numbers (2.54 GAA/.911 SPCT), but so is his backup, Ty Conklin (2.58/ .922). Conklin is a UFA the season after next, and has a more manageable $1.3M cap hit. Halak would shore up at least their medium-term goaltending situation, and allow more development time for 19 year old Jake Allen.
The Blues are also in the enviable position of having many good prospects in the pipeline, rated #1 by hockeysfuture.com. So they could afford to lose some veterans while picking up additional talent.
And who would those veterans be? Like the Dallas proposal in the last post, the Habs would almost certainly have to pick up the current starting goaltender. In this case, that means Mason and his $3M cap hit.
But the player the Habs should have their eyes set upon Brad Boyes. He's currently the Blues points leader, but apparently that's not tough to do: he only has 10 goals, and 24 assists. Still, he's a right handed shot with some size, and the Habs need more of those, esp of the scoring variety. He's also scored at least 65 points in his four full seasons, except for the one year he was traded. Boyes also carries a $4M cap hit, so with Mason the trade is almost a wash in terms of salary.
So how might the Habs lineup look like with this trade? The loss of Gomez means a hole on the second line, probably filled by Sergei Kostitsyn. Or maybe Ben Maxwell, depending on how his most recent audition fares. A sample lineup:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Metropolit-Lapierre
Sure, this lineup has a lot of issues, esp the lack of scoring punch on the third line (Boyes can't do it by himself). But moving Gomez is only about the future. Bringing in Boyes solidifies the right side. Mason's $3M deal comes off the books, and combined with Metropolit and Mara (and Bergeron?), that gives Gainey almost $6M to dole out next year, assuming the cap stays at the same level. That ought to be plenty to keep Plekanec and others, as well as bring in a playmaking center to slot behind Plekanec.
That would leave the Habs looking something like this for 2010-11:
Cammalleri-Plekanec-A. Kostitsyn
Pouliot-($2-3M UFA)
S.Kostitsyn -Maxwell-Boyes
Darche-Lapierre-Moen
That gives the Habs three scoring lines, with some decent energy, size and defense for the fourth. But who would that second line center be? Well, there is a certain one-time captain who will be a UFA once again this offseason...
Sunday, December 20, 2009
A proposal
So Jaroslav Halak wants out? With Carey Price solidifying his play (save his troublesome glove hand; use a broken-in mitt, Carey!), Halak is somewhat expendable. "Somewhat" because Price hasn't proven that he can't be a Brodeur-like iron man. Martin has tried, at least twice starting Price in both games of a back-to-back. And both times Price looked good in the opener, and somewhat suspect in the closer. To wit:
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
So a decent backup is needed. But what the Habs need more is cap space, to re-sign Plekanec especially. But it would be nice to re-up Bergeron too, and maybe Metropolit. And of the RFA's, Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn and especially Price are must-signs.
But as we have seen from the last post, cap space will be hard to come by next season. While there is much speculation as to where the cap will actually be, let's assume it's the same as this year. Only $6.175M is coming off the books in UFA contracts. Two thirds of that could easily go to Plekanec. The rest would have to be split in raises to Price, Lapierre and Kostitsyn. Price alone could command the remainder of the UFA savings. He makes $2.2M in cap dollars today, and another $2M might not be completely outlandish to lock him up long term.
So that leaves Metropolit, Bergeron, Lapierre and Kostitsyn out in the cold. And it also assumes that the other RFA's will be content to extend their contracts at the current levels.
So what's a GM to do? The easy target is Gomez. He makes by far the most on the team, but is a second-line player. He was the same for the Rangers too, and Glen Sather really lucked out in finding someone stupid enough to take his fat contract so that he could sign points-leader Marian Gaborik.
So if Gainey is to trade Gomez, he needs to package him with a player with real worth, and minimal cap hit. And that's where we get back to Halak. But who could afford the cap hit that Gomez brings, and also needs goaltending help? For some unknown reason, Gainey apparently shopped Halak to the Flyers. Sure they need the goaltending -- but trade an asset like Halak to an intra-conference rival pushing for the same playoff spot you are? No, a better target is someone in the Western Conference.
Turns out that the Dallas Stars are at a crossroads in their goaltending situation. Marty Turco is a UFA at the end of the year, and has turned it around from last season's poor performance (2.81 GAA/.898 PCT). The Stars are weighing their options, but it certainly would help if they had someone to push Turco and thereby make the decision easier -- someone better than Alex Auld (3.16/.892). Even better if that someone came at a bargain-basement price like Halak.
The Stars could definitely use the help. They are currently 6th in the league in goals scored, but only 21st in goals against. Halak by himself might not be able to cure this, but certainly would be an improvement on those nights that Turco doesn't play.
Gainey ought to be very familiar with the Stars and their personnel, having come from their organization and consummated several deals with them over the years (Begin and Ribeiro for basically nothing). He should also know that they are significantly under the cap, to the tune of almost $10M. Playing in a 90+% full arena, they're not the Coyotes. They can afford to spend more.
So the Stars might be willing to take on Gomez's huge contract, so long as it were sweetened with Halak. The Stars wouldn't have a problem fitting Gomez in as the second line center behind Ribeiro, as Richards easily slides over to the wing.
And who would the Habs get? Draft picks or prospects might be enough in compensation, as the whole point of this exercise is to clear cap space. There are enough pieces in the organization to compensate for the losses of Halak and Gomez. Cedrick Desjardins (1.34/.948) is playing well enough to merit a call up. Sergei Kostitsyn could replace Gomez on the second line, as the pivot is his natural position.
So the lines might look something like this:
Camalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn
Pouliot-S.Kostitsyn-Gionta
Moen-Metropolit-Pacioretty
Bergeron-Lapierre-D'Agostini
Sure, this trade doesn't address the Habs' need for more size up front and bets a lot on Sergei's ability to step it up a notch. Still, the main point is to clear cap space. Plekanec must be re-signed, the sooner the better. And it opens up some intriguing possibilities for next year...
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Another look at the ugly
With a quarter of the season played, the last post looked at Bob Gainey's Extreme Habs Makeover. Most of it looked pretty good. A few bad moves, to be sure. And Gainey certainly got lucky by not re-signing a couple of players he had no business chasing in the first place.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
But the one thing that stood out was the trade for Scott Gomez. He's a good player, but just not worth what the Habs gave up, specifically...
1) A captain: Gomez has in effect replaced Koivu. They are both about the same size (Koivu: 5-10, 187 lbs; Gomez: 5-11, 200 lbs). Both shoot left. Both were playing as #1 centers, but would be bumped to #2 with the emergence of Tomas Plekanec. Both play the same aggressive forechecking game. And this year, Gomez has 3 goals and 11 assists mainly centering the high scoring Gionta and Cammalleri. Koivu has 3 goals and 8 assists (in two fewer games), centering the high scoring Teemu Selanne.
You can go on and on about the similarities, even their success rate on the shootout (both 42%). Maybe the only statistical difference is in the faceoff circle: Koivu was the Habs' best faceoff man since the lockout ended, while Gomez has never been a go-to faceoff guy. This year continues that trend, with Gomez at 49.4% and Koivu at 53.3%.
But it's the ability to lead a team that truly differentiate the two. I remember the game when Andrei Kostitsyn was blind sided with a nasty hit from Blair Betts in a game against the Rangers. The younger Kostitsyn immediately wanted to mix it up with any and all players from the opposing team. Then we see Koivu on the bench with his arm around Sergei, trying to talk him down. Sergei played the rest of the game with his usual edge, but kept his composure.
There are countless other stories like that, including the seemingly impossible-to-coach Mikhail Grabovski saying that Koivu was his only friend on the Habs. I'm not sure that Koivu would have characterized the relationship that way, but it's obvious that he tries to at least build one with anyone he plays with. He's a consummate professional, and his sort of leadership is sorely missed.
2) Blue line prospects: Both Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valetenko have the potential to be future defensive stars. Granted, potential is cheap, and neither may end up playing in the NHL (esp Valetenko), but having that kind of depth on the blue line is extremely important. Teaching defense is often much more difficult than teaching offense. The latter is innate. The former takes time and practice -- and lots of both. Some will make it through that teaching period, and some won't. And with the salary cap realities, cheap young players are relied upon more and more by all NHL teams.
3) Injury replacements: Chris Higgins was always a player with a lot of potential. Some games he lived up to it; some games, not so much. He was also good in the locker room, and was talked up as a future captain. With the injuries this year, a player of his caliber would have come in handy, even playing first line minutes if need be. But his true skill seems to be on defense, scoring two short handed goals last year in limited playing time and was otherwise effective on the PK. When players came back from injury he could have pushed youngsters like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, Latendresse and either Kostitsyn for playing time, and could have helped transform the fourth line into an effective checking line. Plus his contract expires at the end of this year -- perfect timing for a shrinking cap.
4) Cap space: This is where the Gomez trade hurts the most. Gainey could have kept Higgins and Koivu for much less than Gomez's cap hit this year. With that space, another scoring line forward could have been signed -- maybe Alex Tanguay? And then the Habs would not have been crippled for cap space in the years to come.
Next year will be especially challenging, with the salary cap actually shrinking. Only Metropolit, Mara and Plekanec will go UFA, while Price is amongst a few youngsters that will go RFA. Price will have to be re-signed, but at what cost? Certainly he won't be lowballed lest another team risk losing some picks by signing an up-and-coming franchise goaltender. Worse, the Habs will certainly not be able to bring back Plekanec, not after the year he has had. It's doubtful Gainey could even afford Metropolit or Mara.
The only alternative is to look to the Bulldogs. That means Ben Maxwell making the jump sooner than he would be ready. Worse, he'd have to replace Plekanec's minutes as first line center. And who would replace Metropolit? Ryan White? Any way you slice it, the Habs will be extremely thin down the middle for a few years.
But Gainey could have re-signed Koivu for maybe three years, buying some time to develop Maxwell or maybe another youngster like Louis Leblanc. He then could afford to re-sign both Metropolit and Plekanec, the latter to a long term deal.
But instead, we're neck-deep in ugly.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Roster moves: goaltending
Enough with the theory. On to the nuts and bolts of the 2009-10 edition of the Montreal Canadiens. Every team's most valuable player should be their goaltender. Hockey is in essence a defensive sport. And the goalie is the last line of defense. So it only holds that any team must be built from the pipes on out.
The Habs started out last season with what seemed like a pretty good goalie tandem. Toward the beginning of the year, Price and Halak may have been the best in the league. That soon faltered -- badly -- after the All Star break.
Price has clearly the more upside of the two, with a combination of size, skill, and inflappable demeanor (uh, usually). Some have argued that Price needs a better coach. That could be true, given some of his struggles last year. He often was too deep in his net, failing to challenge shooters. And he went down far too quickly, leading opponents to believe they could successfullly shoot high on him.
But some of this may be due to a lack of confidence, in addition to inadequate coaching. Price could then use a mentor, someone who has seen success between the pipes in the NHL, and is now ready to assume the elder counsel role -- but also still spry enough to spell the youngster on occasion.
That man may be Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig was Price's early mentor, when Price was with the Tri City Americans in the Western Hockey League -- part owned by Kolzig. So they have a history, and Price openly talked about Kolzig's mentorship in those days. Those very successful days.
Kolzig made $1.5M last year. He would have to take a significant cut to join the Habs. Or sign a front loaded, multi-year deal for a smaller cap hit (a loophole that the Habs should exploit before it is closed).
The only problem is that Kolzig is 39. And he didn't play all that well last year. After all, a #2 will have to do more than just teach.
Better options for actual goaltending might be Brian Boucher or Ty Conklin. Both are in their mid-30's and both posted very good years for very little money. For those same reasons, other teams will be after them too, so they won't be that cheap this year. But again, the multi-year deal can avoid the cap problem. The bigger issue is: can they mentor a young, confidence-challenged goaltender?
And then what of Jaroslav Halak? Two options: the Yann Danis route (eternity in the minors as injury insurance) or be traded. Halak would certainly pick up some trade interest, with his generally solid play and bargain rate price. And it would avoid the Yann Danis scenario of losing a quality netminder without compensation.
But if Halak goes, and both Price and his backup go down, who then? Cedrick Desjardins had a decent season for the Bulldogs, but was usually outplayed by NHL castoff Marc Denis. Not exactly the stuff of stellar resume. But still, he's only 20. He might be ready next year for a game or two.
The Habs started out last season with what seemed like a pretty good goalie tandem. Toward the beginning of the year, Price and Halak may have been the best in the league. That soon faltered -- badly -- after the All Star break.
Price has clearly the more upside of the two, with a combination of size, skill, and inflappable demeanor (uh, usually). Some have argued that Price needs a better coach. That could be true, given some of his struggles last year. He often was too deep in his net, failing to challenge shooters. And he went down far too quickly, leading opponents to believe they could successfullly shoot high on him.
But some of this may be due to a lack of confidence, in addition to inadequate coaching. Price could then use a mentor, someone who has seen success between the pipes in the NHL, and is now ready to assume the elder counsel role -- but also still spry enough to spell the youngster on occasion.
That man may be Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig was Price's early mentor, when Price was with the Tri City Americans in the Western Hockey League -- part owned by Kolzig. So they have a history, and Price openly talked about Kolzig's mentorship in those days. Those very successful days.
Kolzig made $1.5M last year. He would have to take a significant cut to join the Habs. Or sign a front loaded, multi-year deal for a smaller cap hit (a loophole that the Habs should exploit before it is closed).
The only problem is that Kolzig is 39. And he didn't play all that well last year. After all, a #2 will have to do more than just teach.
Better options for actual goaltending might be Brian Boucher or Ty Conklin. Both are in their mid-30's and both posted very good years for very little money. For those same reasons, other teams will be after them too, so they won't be that cheap this year. But again, the multi-year deal can avoid the cap problem. The bigger issue is: can they mentor a young, confidence-challenged goaltender?
And then what of Jaroslav Halak? Two options: the Yann Danis route (eternity in the minors as injury insurance) or be traded. Halak would certainly pick up some trade interest, with his generally solid play and bargain rate price. And it would avoid the Yann Danis scenario of losing a quality netminder without compensation.
But if Halak goes, and both Price and his backup go down, who then? Cedrick Desjardins had a decent season for the Bulldogs, but was usually outplayed by NHL castoff Marc Denis. Not exactly the stuff of stellar resume. But still, he's only 20. He might be ready next year for a game or two.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Offseason Overview
Bob Gainey really has his work cut out for him. A season just imploded before him, up close and personal. And now he has maybe half a team under contract for next year, with a salary cap that may shrink anywhere from 1 to 6 million dollars from the previous season. Who exactly will be the Montreal Canadiens next year? And how can they be competitive with such an impending drastic makeover?
Or so goes the prevailing pessimistic view. Chances are that it won't be nearly that bad. Sure the Habs have 15 free agents, 10 of the unrestricted variety. So the GM could go wild and try to sign a whole new lineup.
But as Elliot Friedman points out, it's just not necessary. And good thing too, because the way Habs fans and the media treat their players, who'd want to come here? Certainly not Brendan Shanahan, Mats Sundin or Marian Hossa. At least some of the current UFA's are at least making noises that they want to stay, as crazy as that seems. Which begs the question: if it's so bad in Montreal, why would they want to stay? But let's just take them at their word, and address the larger question of what the Habs can do to prevent the late season collapse and early playoff exit.
The easy answer is less injuries. They were simply snakebit this year, and played much of the 4 playoff games without their top guns, including Markov, Lang, Tanguay and Schneider.
But that doesn't explain the post-All Star break swoon. While injuries played some part, most of the poor showing was due to shoddy defense and goaltending. The players themselves -- at least the healthy ones -- had enough talent to do better than they did. Somehow that talent just wasn't showcased on ice.
Some part of that has to be coaching. After Carbo was fired and Gainey took over, some players perked up noticeably, esp Higgins and Kovalev. Gainey has to find someone who can continue that, and get the rest of the team playing as well. The Habs simply seemed to have stopped listening to Carbo, for whatever reason.
Friedman's article points out Price's recent deficiencies. He was spot on describing how Price is at his best when he seemingly doesn't move. He just plays positional goaltending and uses his big body to make the save. No theatrics necessary. Gainey has to hire someone who can better mentor and bring Price along, and maybe restore some of his confidence. Rollie Melanson may not be that guy.
But maybe the bigger portion of the offseason work is to sign a new team. As unpopular as this may seem, every current Habs RFA and almost every UFA should be brought back. With a lower cap a near certainty, this will take some fancy accounting to make it all pencil out. But as the Red Wings showed, the cap can be gotten around, if teams with the money are willing to bet long term on some of their star players. Who wouldn't want to lock up Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen for as long as possible? The same goes for Mike Komisarek and Alex Tanguay, and even older veterans like Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev.
So it might be possible to squeeze all those free agents under an even lower cap. But that begs the question: why sign the same roster that was more or less responsible for the implosion this season?
That's a big question, best taken up by another post.
Or so goes the prevailing pessimistic view. Chances are that it won't be nearly that bad. Sure the Habs have 15 free agents, 10 of the unrestricted variety. So the GM could go wild and try to sign a whole new lineup.
But as Elliot Friedman points out, it's just not necessary. And good thing too, because the way Habs fans and the media treat their players, who'd want to come here? Certainly not Brendan Shanahan, Mats Sundin or Marian Hossa. At least some of the current UFA's are at least making noises that they want to stay, as crazy as that seems. Which begs the question: if it's so bad in Montreal, why would they want to stay? But let's just take them at their word, and address the larger question of what the Habs can do to prevent the late season collapse and early playoff exit.
The easy answer is less injuries. They were simply snakebit this year, and played much of the 4 playoff games without their top guns, including Markov, Lang, Tanguay and Schneider.
But that doesn't explain the post-All Star break swoon. While injuries played some part, most of the poor showing was due to shoddy defense and goaltending. The players themselves -- at least the healthy ones -- had enough talent to do better than they did. Somehow that talent just wasn't showcased on ice.
Some part of that has to be coaching. After Carbo was fired and Gainey took over, some players perked up noticeably, esp Higgins and Kovalev. Gainey has to find someone who can continue that, and get the rest of the team playing as well. The Habs simply seemed to have stopped listening to Carbo, for whatever reason.
Friedman's article points out Price's recent deficiencies. He was spot on describing how Price is at his best when he seemingly doesn't move. He just plays positional goaltending and uses his big body to make the save. No theatrics necessary. Gainey has to hire someone who can better mentor and bring Price along, and maybe restore some of his confidence. Rollie Melanson may not be that guy.
But maybe the bigger portion of the offseason work is to sign a new team. As unpopular as this may seem, every current Habs RFA and almost every UFA should be brought back. With a lower cap a near certainty, this will take some fancy accounting to make it all pencil out. But as the Red Wings showed, the cap can be gotten around, if teams with the money are willing to bet long term on some of their star players. Who wouldn't want to lock up Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen for as long as possible? The same goes for Mike Komisarek and Alex Tanguay, and even older veterans like Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev.
So it might be possible to squeeze all those free agents under an even lower cap. But that begs the question: why sign the same roster that was more or less responsible for the implosion this season?
That's a big question, best taken up by another post.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Round 1, Game 4: Bruins 4, Canadiens 1
Pretty much the same as before. Habs outgunned and outmanned. They tried to slug their way through it, but couldn't dislodge Boston. Simply too much skill on their side, and half our skill guys are in the infirmary.
But somehow that fact seems to escape the so called fans at the Bell Centre. First they boo the American anthem (in game 3 and tonight as well). Now they jeer Carey Price? He didn't have a good game 2, but on every night, on almost every goal, his defense abandoned him. Let's break it down, goal by pathetic goal:
1) Hamrlik forgets that Michael Ryder no longer plays for the Habs and lays out a perfect feed for him, leaving Price no time to react to such a bone headed play. Byron Bitz could have tossed that one in.
2) Higgins can't finish off his check on Krejci, who bursts past him, feeds it to Ryder on the right, who passes it right back. O'Byrne does a whirling dervish trying to keep track of the puck, and Price is left with no one guarding the back door.
3) Dandenault leisurely skates by the penalty box, failing to notice Kessel standing up and ready to bust out of the box just a few feet away. Kessel takes the feed from Bergeron, and goes in on what was maybe the 4th breakaway in the second period alone, and Kessel's second. Price got the others but doesn't get this one -- it was just a matter of time.
4) Ryder scores on a beautiful 3-on-2 passing play. Somehow the two Habs defenders fail to get a stick on the puck, and the back door is open yet again.
Price had a chance on only the third goal. And that's off the stick of Phil Kessel, for pete's sake. He of 36 regular season goals, leading the high octane Bruins. How is it that the supposedly knowledgeable hockey fans of Montreal fail to grasp that?
But perhaps I'm too harsh. There were some fans who tried to drown out the anthem booers tonight. And there were some fans who tried to drown out the booers at the end of the game, and show some appreciation for the way these Habs tried to battle through the injuries that decimated their squad.
But boy did there seem to be a lot of people jeering Price. I really hope those were two middle fingers he was holding up under his blocker and glove. Too bad he only had two.
But somehow that fact seems to escape the so called fans at the Bell Centre. First they boo the American anthem (in game 3 and tonight as well). Now they jeer Carey Price? He didn't have a good game 2, but on every night, on almost every goal, his defense abandoned him. Let's break it down, goal by pathetic goal:
1) Hamrlik forgets that Michael Ryder no longer plays for the Habs and lays out a perfect feed for him, leaving Price no time to react to such a bone headed play. Byron Bitz could have tossed that one in.
2) Higgins can't finish off his check on Krejci, who bursts past him, feeds it to Ryder on the right, who passes it right back. O'Byrne does a whirling dervish trying to keep track of the puck, and Price is left with no one guarding the back door.
3) Dandenault leisurely skates by the penalty box, failing to notice Kessel standing up and ready to bust out of the box just a few feet away. Kessel takes the feed from Bergeron, and goes in on what was maybe the 4th breakaway in the second period alone, and Kessel's second. Price got the others but doesn't get this one -- it was just a matter of time.
4) Ryder scores on a beautiful 3-on-2 passing play. Somehow the two Habs defenders fail to get a stick on the puck, and the back door is open yet again.
Price had a chance on only the third goal. And that's off the stick of Phil Kessel, for pete's sake. He of 36 regular season goals, leading the high octane Bruins. How is it that the supposedly knowledgeable hockey fans of Montreal fail to grasp that?
But perhaps I'm too harsh. There were some fans who tried to drown out the anthem booers tonight. And there were some fans who tried to drown out the booers at the end of the game, and show some appreciation for the way these Habs tried to battle through the injuries that decimated their squad.
But boy did there seem to be a lot of people jeering Price. I really hope those were two middle fingers he was holding up under his blocker and glove. Too bad he only had two.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Hope for the future
Everybody wants to emulate a winner. Last year the Anaheim Ducks brutalized their way to the top. This year, some teams tried to do the same, most notably the Philadelphia Flyers. But some early (and very necessary) intervention by Colin Campbell seemed to have righted that ship, at least for the regular season.
Now its the playoffs, and the "sticky" play has returned (as noted ad nauseum in the last post). Occasionally though, there are breakthroughs, where the refs start calling the penalties as they should be. This was notably absent for much of the Bruins-Habs series, but the Habs managed to pull through.
For the Flyers series, the officiating has been better, but there has still been a lot of hooking and holding going on. Not egregious enough to pull down a player, but enough to eliminate space for the much more talented Habs.
Probably the best example is the supposed dominance of Biron. While he has played better than either Halak or Price (for the most part), he hasn't been unbeatable. He has always been prone to giving up juicy rebounds, and this series is no different. The difference is that the Habs can get to them. So much hooking, holding and general interference is happening in front of the net that they can't break free.
But Habs GM is still optimistic about the future. Most of the skilled teams have done well, esp the Red Wings and Penguins. The Sharks and Habs would also fall into that category, but are behind the 8-ball right now. Still, as pointed out over at Sisu Hockey, it might just all be bad luck. In almost every other statistical category, the Habs have outplayed the Flyers.
So while a 25th Stanley Cup championship would be the ultimate this year, a Red Wings-Penguins final would be a decent second best. Then instead of emulating the Ducks, maybe other teams will start playing catch up with the skill teams, and the NHL on-ice product would be that much more satisfying.
Now its the playoffs, and the "sticky" play has returned (as noted ad nauseum in the last post). Occasionally though, there are breakthroughs, where the refs start calling the penalties as they should be. This was notably absent for much of the Bruins-Habs series, but the Habs managed to pull through.
For the Flyers series, the officiating has been better, but there has still been a lot of hooking and holding going on. Not egregious enough to pull down a player, but enough to eliminate space for the much more talented Habs.
Probably the best example is the supposed dominance of Biron. While he has played better than either Halak or Price (for the most part), he hasn't been unbeatable. He has always been prone to giving up juicy rebounds, and this series is no different. The difference is that the Habs can get to them. So much hooking, holding and general interference is happening in front of the net that they can't break free.
But Habs GM is still optimistic about the future. Most of the skilled teams have done well, esp the Red Wings and Penguins. The Sharks and Habs would also fall into that category, but are behind the 8-ball right now. Still, as pointed out over at Sisu Hockey, it might just all be bad luck. In almost every other statistical category, the Habs have outplayed the Flyers.
So while a 25th Stanley Cup championship would be the ultimate this year, a Red Wings-Penguins final would be a decent second best. Then instead of emulating the Ducks, maybe other teams will start playing catch up with the skill teams, and the NHL on-ice product would be that much more satisfying.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
The aftermath
The trade deadline came and went, and the Habs shocked many by appearing to be selling rather than buying. Trading your #1 goaltender might lend itself to such an interpretation.
But of course there's much more to it than that. Cristobal Huet is an unrestricted free agent his upcoming offseason, and unless Carey Price showed he was incapable of taking on the #1 duties next season, Huet would not be re-signed. So why let him get away for nothing?
However, it seems like Gainey got almost just that in return: a second round draft pick ... in 2009.
So it's not really about Huet's impending departure either. It's more about the future, and it's imminent arrival.
Gainey apparently was intent on landing Marian Hossa, at least to close out this season. But he was not willing to give up any of his highly touted prospects in return. Instead, he has chosen to go to battle with this team of mostly unproven youngsters.
And none more so than Carey Price. Gainey has laid the burden of being #1 squarely on his shoulders. Certainly a tall order for a 20 year old, who had yet to put in a full year in the AHL, and spent some time there this year as well. (BTW, Price isn't the first Habs rookie goaltender to be sent down to the minors to work on his form, esp to stand up more. Patrick Roy did the same).
But it's also up to the Kostitsyn brothers, Higgins, Plekanec, Komisarek, O'Byrne and the like -- the young core of this team that Gainey refused to trade. By not trading them, Gainey has signaled his confidence in them. Passing the torch, as it were.
This is a team whose rebuilding is almost over (more on that later). Why would Gainey rent a player like Hossa, when this is a team that can go all the way. Maybe not this year, but conceivably in the near future.
And Hossa almost certainly would have been a rental. The Habs are significantly under the cap this season, and presumably next season's cap would be even higher. But let's say that Gainey was able to get Hossa without trading any of his existing players. He might be able to sign Hossa and his upcoming free agents, given what Hossa supposedly wanted ($7M+ per year).
But why would he do that, and risk the carefully constructed salary balance to date? Kovalev and Koivu are his highest paid forwards, with Koivu earning only $.25M more than Kovy per year. And over the same span too. On D, Markov and Hamrlik are the highest paid, with the same differential as Kovy and Koivu. Gainey isn't going to bring in anyone to earn much more than any of them, the veteran leaders of this club. Not without risking egos and the careful chemistry that shows the resilience to come back to win from a 5-0 deficit.
So don't expect Hossa in the tricolore next year either. Gainey has himself a team. A cohesive unit that can win games now, and for the foreseeable future.
But of course there's much more to it than that. Cristobal Huet is an unrestricted free agent his upcoming offseason, and unless Carey Price showed he was incapable of taking on the #1 duties next season, Huet would not be re-signed. So why let him get away for nothing?
However, it seems like Gainey got almost just that in return: a second round draft pick ... in 2009.
So it's not really about Huet's impending departure either. It's more about the future, and it's imminent arrival.
Gainey apparently was intent on landing Marian Hossa, at least to close out this season. But he was not willing to give up any of his highly touted prospects in return. Instead, he has chosen to go to battle with this team of mostly unproven youngsters.
And none more so than Carey Price. Gainey has laid the burden of being #1 squarely on his shoulders. Certainly a tall order for a 20 year old, who had yet to put in a full year in the AHL, and spent some time there this year as well. (BTW, Price isn't the first Habs rookie goaltender to be sent down to the minors to work on his form, esp to stand up more. Patrick Roy did the same).
But it's also up to the Kostitsyn brothers, Higgins, Plekanec, Komisarek, O'Byrne and the like -- the young core of this team that Gainey refused to trade. By not trading them, Gainey has signaled his confidence in them. Passing the torch, as it were.
This is a team whose rebuilding is almost over (more on that later). Why would Gainey rent a player like Hossa, when this is a team that can go all the way. Maybe not this year, but conceivably in the near future.
And Hossa almost certainly would have been a rental. The Habs are significantly under the cap this season, and presumably next season's cap would be even higher. But let's say that Gainey was able to get Hossa without trading any of his existing players. He might be able to sign Hossa and his upcoming free agents, given what Hossa supposedly wanted ($7M+ per year).
But why would he do that, and risk the carefully constructed salary balance to date? Kovalev and Koivu are his highest paid forwards, with Koivu earning only $.25M more than Kovy per year. And over the same span too. On D, Markov and Hamrlik are the highest paid, with the same differential as Kovy and Koivu. Gainey isn't going to bring in anyone to earn much more than any of them, the veteran leaders of this club. Not without risking egos and the careful chemistry that shows the resilience to come back to win from a 5-0 deficit.
So don't expect Hossa in the tricolore next year either. Gainey has himself a team. A cohesive unit that can win games now, and for the foreseeable future.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
The Final Cut
Yes, I know it should be plural. But I just love the name ... of that album. Pink Floyd's last with Roger Waters. Some good tunes, but I think the acrimony between band members spilled over into the creative process.
Ok, ok back to the Habs. Some interesting final cuts made by Bob and company. I'm a bit surprised by some of them, given what I thought would play out. But my trust is in Bob -- despite any claims made by the title I've given this blog. I firmly believe that he is righting this ship, largely through the paper arts. He's gotten rid of most of the bloated salaries (Theo, Sammy) and bad locker room vibe (Dagenais, Ribeiro, etc) and has the farm stocked with lots of young talent to pull us through to a Cup win hopefully in the near future.
There's still one guy left whom you could argue fits into both the bloated-salary and bad-locker-room-vibe categories: Alex Kovalev. Gainey beat me to the punchline, but after writing the last post, I came to the same conclusion. Kovalev has got to start earning that $4.5M this year. Sure that's not superstar money these days, but it ain't chump change either. He's also got the "A" pinned to his chest now, so he'd better start leading in the clubhouse too.
I saw a game last year, where RDS had him mic'd up. He was non-stop yapping, esp to his linemates on the bench. I thought that could only be a good thing. He's a veteran, and he had some youngsters playing with him at times. Who wouldn't want to have some personal hockey tutoring by Alex Kovalev?
Except this dude has to prove the adage wrong, the one where "those who can't do, teach." Kovy's got to do it, all over the ice. 40 goals would sure be nice. If not, he might truly be the final cut.
As to the other roster news:
Ok, ok back to the Habs. Some interesting final cuts made by Bob and company. I'm a bit surprised by some of them, given what I thought would play out. But my trust is in Bob -- despite any claims made by the title I've given this blog. I firmly believe that he is righting this ship, largely through the paper arts. He's gotten rid of most of the bloated salaries (Theo, Sammy) and bad locker room vibe (Dagenais, Ribeiro, etc) and has the farm stocked with lots of young talent to pull us through to a Cup win hopefully in the near future.
There's still one guy left whom you could argue fits into both the bloated-salary and bad-locker-room-vibe categories: Alex Kovalev. Gainey beat me to the punchline, but after writing the last post, I came to the same conclusion. Kovalev has got to start earning that $4.5M this year. Sure that's not superstar money these days, but it ain't chump change either. He's also got the "A" pinned to his chest now, so he'd better start leading in the clubhouse too.
I saw a game last year, where RDS had him mic'd up. He was non-stop yapping, esp to his linemates on the bench. I thought that could only be a good thing. He's a veteran, and he had some youngsters playing with him at times. Who wouldn't want to have some personal hockey tutoring by Alex Kovalev?
Except this dude has to prove the adage wrong, the one where "those who can't do, teach." Kovy's got to do it, all over the ice. 40 goals would sure be nice. If not, he might truly be the final cut.
As to the other roster news:
- Price is staying. Very interesting. Gainey apparently overruled Carbo on this one. Even more interesting. I thought Price would go to Hamilton, given Carbo's earlier statement on Price. So either Price will be sitting a lot, or will be playing more than the usual backup. I think the latter. I suspect Bob will try to move Huet and maybe Halak or Danis too.
- Lapierre isn't. I really liked what I saw from Lapierre last year. He mixes it up, getting opponents to take bad penalties, but plays good D too. But apparently that didn't show this preseason. I'm sure he'll be back.
- And neither is O'Byrne. I'm sure he'll be the first to be called up should the Habs defensive corps thin out from injury, illness or sheer ineffectiveness.
- Brisebois is #4. WTF? That's all I have to say. No, I have more. I thought for sure that his signing was all about depth on the right side, esp if O'Byrne (another righty) wasn't ready. But now he's slotted ahead of Streit, Dandenault, Bouillon and Gorges? I don't get it.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Building a contender: goaltending
This is the first in an ongoing series, examining the Habs more or less line by line.
This post examines where any good GM ought to start when building a contender: between the pipes. The Habs are in as good a situation as any team going into this next season. Cristobal Huet is the incumbent starter. Since dethroning King Jose some time back, he has been at or near the top of the league in save percentage.
I'd argue that this is a more important stat than GAA, as it's typically a better indication of how good your defense is. Dominik Hasek was near the top last year in GAA, but faced a paltry amount of shots. And well he should, given the guys in front of him: Dany Markov, Nik Lidstrom, Chris Chelios, etc.
The Habs, on the other hand, didn't give much help on D. Souray and Rivet were great in the locker room, but are a little slow for today's NHL. And when injuries and illness hit, Janne Niinimaa as the veteran backup surely tried many a Habs' fan's pulmonary activity.
But back to Cristobal. He is a cool customer in the crease, seemingly always in position and therefore rarely in need of the spectacular save. The opposite could be said for his predecessor, who make many a highlight reel with his acrobatic saves. Huet doesn't have Jose's lateral mobility, so positioning is critical. How many times does the puck hit him squarely in the CH? He makes shooters look like they have bad aim, but I think they just wonder how he can always be in the right place at the right time.
As much as I admire his game, I have questions about Cristobal's ability to carry the load 65-70 games per year. He's never been a full time starter before his fortuitous landing in Habland. The year before, he took over mid-season and played only 36 games -- almost all of them in eye-opening form.
He started off last season not quite as well, allowing David Aebischer back into contention as the #1. But he rounded into form again only to fall apart in late December. He then tore his hamstring, and yet came back ahead of schedule late in the season. How's that for up and down?
My theory? He doesn't have the stamina for a full time goalie. Play him 2 out of every 3 starts or so, and that ought to give him the rest he needs.
And this plays right into the Canadiens' strengths: they have potentially three goalies who could capably back up Huet. Jaroslav Halak is the incumbent, a veritable Cristobal Jr: cool as ice in the nets, and usually impeccably positioned. He looks like he needs to learn some shooters' tendencies, but that will come with time.
Yann Danis is the oft-forgotten potential backup. Prior to last year, he was the Hamilton Bulldogs' go-to guy. That is, until Jaroslav started making noise last year. Then when Huet went down, Halak got the call over Danis. I remember seeing Danis as Theo's backup a few years back, and was impressed.
So I wouldn't blame him if he were a little frustrated. And it gets worse for him -- but good for the Habs. Danis now has to contend with not one young star in Halak, but also Carey Price. Bob drafted Price a few years back, puzzling many as he already had a Conn Smythe/Vezina winner locked up in a multi-year contract. But in any sport, you always draft the best player available. If you end up having an embarassment of riches at one position, then you work the trade market.
That's what will happen in Hab land, sooner or later. I think Bob will/should be patient with Price. It's never a good idea to rush a goalie. But if Price should prove his worth sooner rather than later, then someone's got to move. Price is only worth bringing up if he's ready to take over. If he's the goalie of the future, why have him riding the pine when he could be playing full time in Hamilton?
In my next post, I'll examine a possible trade scenario, one that will take advantage of the Habs' goaltending strength and take care of their most glaring weakness going into this season.
This post examines where any good GM ought to start when building a contender: between the pipes. The Habs are in as good a situation as any team going into this next season. Cristobal Huet is the incumbent starter. Since dethroning King Jose some time back, he has been at or near the top of the league in save percentage.
I'd argue that this is a more important stat than GAA, as it's typically a better indication of how good your defense is. Dominik Hasek was near the top last year in GAA, but faced a paltry amount of shots. And well he should, given the guys in front of him: Dany Markov, Nik Lidstrom, Chris Chelios, etc.
The Habs, on the other hand, didn't give much help on D. Souray and Rivet were great in the locker room, but are a little slow for today's NHL. And when injuries and illness hit, Janne Niinimaa as the veteran backup surely tried many a Habs' fan's pulmonary activity.
But back to Cristobal. He is a cool customer in the crease, seemingly always in position and therefore rarely in need of the spectacular save. The opposite could be said for his predecessor, who make many a highlight reel with his acrobatic saves. Huet doesn't have Jose's lateral mobility, so positioning is critical. How many times does the puck hit him squarely in the CH? He makes shooters look like they have bad aim, but I think they just wonder how he can always be in the right place at the right time.
As much as I admire his game, I have questions about Cristobal's ability to carry the load 65-70 games per year. He's never been a full time starter before his fortuitous landing in Habland. The year before, he took over mid-season and played only 36 games -- almost all of them in eye-opening form.
He started off last season not quite as well, allowing David Aebischer back into contention as the #1. But he rounded into form again only to fall apart in late December. He then tore his hamstring, and yet came back ahead of schedule late in the season. How's that for up and down?
My theory? He doesn't have the stamina for a full time goalie. Play him 2 out of every 3 starts or so, and that ought to give him the rest he needs.
And this plays right into the Canadiens' strengths: they have potentially three goalies who could capably back up Huet. Jaroslav Halak is the incumbent, a veritable Cristobal Jr: cool as ice in the nets, and usually impeccably positioned. He looks like he needs to learn some shooters' tendencies, but that will come with time.
Yann Danis is the oft-forgotten potential backup. Prior to last year, he was the Hamilton Bulldogs' go-to guy. That is, until Jaroslav started making noise last year. Then when Huet went down, Halak got the call over Danis. I remember seeing Danis as Theo's backup a few years back, and was impressed.
So I wouldn't blame him if he were a little frustrated. And it gets worse for him -- but good for the Habs. Danis now has to contend with not one young star in Halak, but also Carey Price. Bob drafted Price a few years back, puzzling many as he already had a Conn Smythe/Vezina winner locked up in a multi-year contract. But in any sport, you always draft the best player available. If you end up having an embarassment of riches at one position, then you work the trade market.
That's what will happen in Hab land, sooner or later. I think Bob will/should be patient with Price. It's never a good idea to rush a goalie. But if Price should prove his worth sooner rather than later, then someone's got to move. Price is only worth bringing up if he's ready to take over. If he's the goalie of the future, why have him riding the pine when he could be playing full time in Hamilton?
In my next post, I'll examine a possible trade scenario, one that will take advantage of the Habs' goaltending strength and take care of their most glaring weakness going into this season.
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