The forwards who played last year were all about speed and skill. Size and strength weren't as evident. While the Habs definitely need to keep the speed and skill (see Detroit, Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh), size and strength should also be added, where possible.
Those from last year that don't fit this model are Georges Laraque and Glen Metropolit. Laraque has plenty of size, but seemed reluctant to use it. He also has zero skill. And with the upcoming crackdown on fighting, his value is greatly diminished. Metropolit was on the smaller side, esp for a defensive forward, and had limited skill. He was also the only center to lose more than half of his faceoffs. He's a checking line center on a team that already has a more effective checking line center (Lapierre), and another on his way up (Chipchura). Both Laraque and Metropolit should be released or traded.
Gregory Stewart is similar, but should be re-signed and assigned to Hamilton. Like Laraque, he has zero skills, and is much smaller than Laraque. Still, he at least attempted to leverage whatever he had, and generally got under opponents' skin.
The rest is easy: every other UFA and RFA forward who played regular shifts last year should be re-signed. While that ensures another year of speed and skill, it also offers some (limited) opportunity to get bigger.
Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Max Pacioretty. He played responsible hockey last year with the big club, and showed flashes of being the power forward the Habs desperately need. Another player with size is Robert Lang. Hopefully he can return from that foot injury unscathed, although he was already maybe the slowest player last year -- and will turn 39 this year. But right handed, scoring centers are in short supply this offseason.
The Habs also should re-sign every man from their most potent line: Tanguay, Koivu and Kovalev. When on the ice, they were a good match for almost any line in hockey. Having Lang back will provide decent second line scoring, and provide good matchups against most opponents.
Plekanec centering the third line will be a bit like Patrice Bergeron centering the same line for the Bruins. Having that kind of scoring potential on the third line shows how deep the Habs can be. His dogged, hounding-the-puck style of play should also provide some defensive coverage, especially when paired with Chris Higgins.
Lapierre's line would then form maybe the best two-way line in all of hockey. They would provide defense, energy, size, and even a bit of scoring, especially from Latendresse and Lapierre. This line may have been the most consistent throughout the year, at least when healthy.
The lines might go something like this (free agents marked with asterisk):
*Tanguay-*Koivu-*Kovalev
Pacioretty-*Lang-A.Kostitsyn
Higgins-*Plekanec-D'Agostini
Latendresse-Lapierre-*Kostopolous
bench: Sergei Kostitsyn, *Dandenault
This lineup has a right handed shot in every line (except Lapierre's which has two). It also mixes the youngsters like Pacioretty and D'Agostini amongst the veterans. D'Agostini especially needs to play with players who are defensively responsible, and can help teach him that part of the game.
Plekanec's line is almost all speed. D'Agostini is probably the fastest on the team, followed by Higgins. They'll be tough to pin down, and will blow by many an attempted hip check.
Lang's line has quite a bit of size, although a bit slower than Plekanec's. But if Kostitsyn and Pacioretty hit like they can hit, this will be a tough line to play against. This especially applies to Kostitsyn, who can deliver big hits but doesn't seem willing to do so -- except when he's pissed off. If he had the attitude of his brother, he would be lethal.
Speaking of whom, his brother will hopefully have learned to control his emotions a bit better and should make the team again. He'd make a great backup should anyone on the top two lines go out. Dandenault would provide relief for the bottom two lines, esp if D'Agostini has defensive zone issues again. Dandenault also is the 8th defenseman, so he might be seeing plenty of playing time.
So there you have it. Not much different than last year sure, but this is essentially the team that took the Habs to their best first-half record ever -- before all the injuries hit. Why mess with a good thing? Besides, the UFA market isn't brimming with superstars. If any significant changes are to come, they would have to be via trade -- and we already addressed that unlikely scenario.
To come: crunching the numbers on the various signing scenarios.
Showing posts with label Laraque. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Laraque. Show all posts
Friday, May 8, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Definition of Insanity
There is an increasingly overused phrase that defines insanity as doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result. So perhaps some Habs fans and NHL pundits in general would deem it insanity for the Habs to reconstruct more or less the same roster as last year -- despite the flameout over the last half-season. But that's exactly what is proposed here, insane or not.
While many fans want to dump some of the current players, the simple fact is that there isn't a whole lot of UFA talent left out there to replace them. The Wings re-signed one of the most prized would-be UFA's (Franzen) and are apparently close to signing Hossa too. Koivu comes under constant criticism for not being a true #1 center. Take a look at the list of UFA centers next year. Koivu is near the top of that list.
Second, for whatever reason, not many players want to sign in Montreal, unless they already play for Montreal. The three most significant additions to the Habs last year -- Lang, Tanguay and Schneider -- all came via trade. In recent years, Hamrlik is the lone exception to this rule, but he already had narrowed his choices to the 6 Canadian teams. Other big free agent prizes like Hossa, Sundin and Shanahan were more the norm, and said "non, merci" to the, uh, opportunity to play in Montreal.
So the Habs either have to carry out a trade or two, or sign their current crop of free agents. For the first option, I would hope that the Lecavalier saga is over, now that Gainey has publicly berated Lightning GM Brian Lawton for allegedly using the Habs as leverage to get better deals for Lecavalier. Even if it weren't, how would Gainey get Vinny and still fit under the cap? He'd have to trade Andrei Kostitsyn and maybe his brother and a few other prospects like O'Byrne and Weber and not sign Koivu and Lang. Is Vinny really worth that much? Even without the lost players, is any player worth 20% of the cap? Not unless you're Roberto Luongo.
But signing most of the current roster is not just a matter of it being one of the few paths Gainey can take. It also makes good hockey sense.
This roster showed glimpses of brilliance, esp in the first half when the Habs posted their best record ever through 41 games. They were healthy, had confidence, and listened to the coaching staff. Granted, much of that fell away in the second half, saw a brief resurgence when Gainey took over, and waylaid by injuries (again) at the end.
But the core is still there: a top line to rival any other line in the league; secondary scoring; a gritty two way line; blue line depth; speed and skill throughout the roster.
The only thing missing is size, but size is overrated, at least in the new NHL. Playoff games were called more consistently this year, negating the size advantage that some teams may have. Last year it wasn't that way, and so Big Georges Laraque was obtained. Yet despite being the smaller team, the Habs outhit the Bruins. They recorded 115 hits in the 4 games, 40 more than the Bruins. Laraque only had 1o of them, so even if he hadn't played, the Bruins would have been significantly outhit.
Where size does matter, at least in part, is in protecting the puck. Can the player absorb a hit, or is he knocked off the puck easily? Can he take a hit to make a play? Some fans may cry for the return of Mike Ribeiro, but he is the epitome of a skill player easily relieved of the puck.
And even then, not every player who is strong on the puck is also big physically. Tiny Eric Perrin of Atlanta only had 21 giveaways in 78 games. And some of the big boys might be strong on the puck, can't do much with it anyway (see BGL). Still, if the choice were between a player with speed, skill and size vs the player with just speed and skill, the answer is easy. But those kinds of players aren't exactly a dime a dozen either.
The big test of this theory will be how the teams with speed and skill do in these playoffs. Those would be the Red Wings, Blackhawks, Penguins, Capitals and Sharks. Only the Sharks didn't advance, and that was mostly due to unbelievable goaltending on the part of Jonas Hiller. (The Caps almost faced the same fate until Lundquist couldn't carry the Rangers any more.)
To come: a breakdown of next year's roster.
While many fans want to dump some of the current players, the simple fact is that there isn't a whole lot of UFA talent left out there to replace them. The Wings re-signed one of the most prized would-be UFA's (Franzen) and are apparently close to signing Hossa too. Koivu comes under constant criticism for not being a true #1 center. Take a look at the list of UFA centers next year. Koivu is near the top of that list.
Second, for whatever reason, not many players want to sign in Montreal, unless they already play for Montreal. The three most significant additions to the Habs last year -- Lang, Tanguay and Schneider -- all came via trade. In recent years, Hamrlik is the lone exception to this rule, but he already had narrowed his choices to the 6 Canadian teams. Other big free agent prizes like Hossa, Sundin and Shanahan were more the norm, and said "non, merci" to the, uh, opportunity to play in Montreal.
So the Habs either have to carry out a trade or two, or sign their current crop of free agents. For the first option, I would hope that the Lecavalier saga is over, now that Gainey has publicly berated Lightning GM Brian Lawton for allegedly using the Habs as leverage to get better deals for Lecavalier. Even if it weren't, how would Gainey get Vinny and still fit under the cap? He'd have to trade Andrei Kostitsyn and maybe his brother and a few other prospects like O'Byrne and Weber and not sign Koivu and Lang. Is Vinny really worth that much? Even without the lost players, is any player worth 20% of the cap? Not unless you're Roberto Luongo.
But signing most of the current roster is not just a matter of it being one of the few paths Gainey can take. It also makes good hockey sense.
This roster showed glimpses of brilliance, esp in the first half when the Habs posted their best record ever through 41 games. They were healthy, had confidence, and listened to the coaching staff. Granted, much of that fell away in the second half, saw a brief resurgence when Gainey took over, and waylaid by injuries (again) at the end.
But the core is still there: a top line to rival any other line in the league; secondary scoring; a gritty two way line; blue line depth; speed and skill throughout the roster.
The only thing missing is size, but size is overrated, at least in the new NHL. Playoff games were called more consistently this year, negating the size advantage that some teams may have. Last year it wasn't that way, and so Big Georges Laraque was obtained. Yet despite being the smaller team, the Habs outhit the Bruins. They recorded 115 hits in the 4 games, 40 more than the Bruins. Laraque only had 1o of them, so even if he hadn't played, the Bruins would have been significantly outhit.
Where size does matter, at least in part, is in protecting the puck. Can the player absorb a hit, or is he knocked off the puck easily? Can he take a hit to make a play? Some fans may cry for the return of Mike Ribeiro, but he is the epitome of a skill player easily relieved of the puck.
And even then, not every player who is strong on the puck is also big physically. Tiny Eric Perrin of Atlanta only had 21 giveaways in 78 games. And some of the big boys might be strong on the puck, can't do much with it anyway (see BGL). Still, if the choice were between a player with speed, skill and size vs the player with just speed and skill, the answer is easy. But those kinds of players aren't exactly a dime a dozen either.
The big test of this theory will be how the teams with speed and skill do in these playoffs. Those would be the Red Wings, Blackhawks, Penguins, Capitals and Sharks. Only the Sharks didn't advance, and that was mostly due to unbelievable goaltending on the part of Jonas Hiller. (The Caps almost faced the same fate until Lundquist couldn't carry the Rangers any more.)
To come: a breakdown of next year's roster.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Round 1, Game 1: Bruins 4, Canadiens 2
Despite the outcome, Habs fans should be at least somewhat encouraged by the play of the Bleu, Blanc et Rouge. Despite all the warning signs of a rough-and-tumble series, both teams kept their emotions in check for the most part, and played decent hockey. The refs actually acted like they were being paid to enforce the rules, and called a good game by not letting the clutch-and-grab go unnoticed and keeping a free flow.
Their defense played pretty well, despite having a converted forward, an old fart who skates as fast as I do and another old fart who gets pushed off the puck easier than my 6 year old. Sure there were a few lapses, like Gorges' brain freeze of a cross check. He knows better, but it was probably just a matter of a little too much force applied to what was supposed to be an "I'm still here" reminder of a cross check.
One wonders what might be if Bouillon and especially Markov can return to the blue line. If the refs keep calling it tight, the series could very well tilt in the Habs' favor, where their skill and speed would be allowed room to operate.
For all these reasons, one hopes that Big Georges Laraque won't be skating on the first line again. And if Bouillon and/or Markov returns, Dandenault should move up front and nudge BGL out of the lineup altogether.
BGL was inserted to provide some toughness during these playoffs, and to protect the star players. Gainey signed him last off season for this very moment, after Philly and Boston both physically dominated the Habs last year. It's a decent strategy, esp with the Bruins adding more size themselves.
The problem is that BGL simply can't play hockey. He skates around in slow circles, mostly looking for someone to engage in some verbal jousting. And when he tries to play the body, he's usually not very successful -- he's so slow, there's plenty of time to get out of the way.
His stick handling skills are also atrocious. He was set up multiple times for some decent scoring chances, but couldn't even get a decent shot most of the time.
On the other hand, the man he swapped places with was the Habs' main offensive weapon. Tanguay had an assist, a game high +2, and would have had a PP goal had it not been for a pact-with-the-devil display of goaltending by Tim Thomas.
When Tanguay was on the ice -- no matter what line -- the ice started tilting toward the Bruins' end. This was obvious by mid-2nd period. And when Gainey had his big line out to start the 3rd, I had hope that he had seen it too. But Laraque soon resumed his position on Koivu's wing. Presumably he was there to give Kovalev and Koivu more room. It's hard to say if that worked, but it's almost a lock that Tanguay on that line would have resulted in better scoring chances.
Still, there is much reason for hope that this series might extend long enough for the Habs to get healthy and pull out a series win.
Their defense played pretty well, despite having a converted forward, an old fart who skates as fast as I do and another old fart who gets pushed off the puck easier than my 6 year old. Sure there were a few lapses, like Gorges' brain freeze of a cross check. He knows better, but it was probably just a matter of a little too much force applied to what was supposed to be an "I'm still here" reminder of a cross check.
One wonders what might be if Bouillon and especially Markov can return to the blue line. If the refs keep calling it tight, the series could very well tilt in the Habs' favor, where their skill and speed would be allowed room to operate.
For all these reasons, one hopes that Big Georges Laraque won't be skating on the first line again. And if Bouillon and/or Markov returns, Dandenault should move up front and nudge BGL out of the lineup altogether.
BGL was inserted to provide some toughness during these playoffs, and to protect the star players. Gainey signed him last off season for this very moment, after Philly and Boston both physically dominated the Habs last year. It's a decent strategy, esp with the Bruins adding more size themselves.
The problem is that BGL simply can't play hockey. He skates around in slow circles, mostly looking for someone to engage in some verbal jousting. And when he tries to play the body, he's usually not very successful -- he's so slow, there's plenty of time to get out of the way.
His stick handling skills are also atrocious. He was set up multiple times for some decent scoring chances, but couldn't even get a decent shot most of the time.
On the other hand, the man he swapped places with was the Habs' main offensive weapon. Tanguay had an assist, a game high +2, and would have had a PP goal had it not been for a pact-with-the-devil display of goaltending by Tim Thomas.
When Tanguay was on the ice -- no matter what line -- the ice started tilting toward the Bruins' end. This was obvious by mid-2nd period. And when Gainey had his big line out to start the 3rd, I had hope that he had seen it too. But Laraque soon resumed his position on Koivu's wing. Presumably he was there to give Kovalev and Koivu more room. It's hard to say if that worked, but it's almost a lock that Tanguay on that line would have resulted in better scoring chances.
Still, there is much reason for hope that this series might extend long enough for the Habs to get healthy and pull out a series win.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Trade deadline 2009
At the beginning of this season, the Habs were well positioned for a playoff push, perhaps even improving on their surprising showing from the previous season and maintaining the number one seed in the East. The trades for Alex Tanguay and Robert Lang, two top six forwards, did much to create Cup anticipation amongst longtime Habs fans.
Unfortunately, injuries to key players and spotty goaltending have cast doubt on some of those lofty goals. Both Tanguay and Lang have been on IR for extended periods of time, as well as Koivu, Latendresse and Komisarek. Carey Price also was injured, only to come back as a shell of his former self. The Kostitsyn brothers and Kovalev sideshows, and constant trade rumors didn't do much for team psychology either.
But Gainey hasn't given up. Kovalev was given a two game sabbatical, and then came back with 7 pts in 3 games. Sergei Kostitsyn was shipped off to Hamilton. Mathieu Schneider rejoined the Habs for a couple of draft picks. Glen Metropolit was picked up off waivers. The Habs seem to have responded with aggressive defense, a vastly improved PP and most of all, Jaroslaa Halak's otherworldly goaltending.
Gainey's most recent move was somewhat surprising (or at least telling), as Metropolit still has another year on his contract. His pickup also solidifies Lapierre's role as the #3 center. One then wonders what will happen to Lang, a UFA in the off season, and a vital cog in the Habs offense this year. Like Lang, Metropolit also gives the Habs another right handed centerman, and is decent in the faceoff circle: he was the top faceoff man for the Flyers this year.
His pickup had repercussions: Steve Begin became expendable, and allowed Kyle Chipchura to be sent back to Hamilton -- no doubt for more seasoning. Chipchura's defensive play still needs work (-6 in 13 games), as well as taking draws (a woeful 43.9%). Metropolit buys Chipchura another year, and makes $300k less than Begin. Not much especially this late in the season, but still more breathing room under the cap.
The next Hab rumored to leave is Mathieu Dandenault. Also a UFA at the end of the year, he would seem to have more trade value as a two way player. Perhaps only Bob Gainey could get away with decreasing the "French content" of the beloved Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.
Still, if Dandenault were to leave, it would be either straight up for draft picks or packaged with picks and/or prospects for an impact player. Such an impact player would almost certainly be a top six forward, someone basically to replace the lost offense when Lang went down.
If Gainey were to do that, he would be essentially signaling a return to the three scoring line, one checking/energy line format. Since Lang's injury, Habs have been using old school lines: two scoring lines, one two-way/checking line, and an agitator/energy line, (more or less) something like this:
Higgins-Koivu-D'Agostini
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Pacioretty-Lapierre-Kostopoulos
Stewart-Metropolit-Laraque
If Gainey were to pick up a top six forward, Carbo could dramatically reshape his forward lines for the playoffs. Assuming both Tanguay and Latendresse come back before the playoffs, the new lines might look something like this:
Tanguay-Koivu-new RW?
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Latendresse
S.Kostitsyn/Pacioretty/Stewart-Metropolit-Kostopoulos
D'Agostini will almost certainly be sent down once Tanguay and Latendresse are back. While he goes to the net, has lightning speed and has that rare right handed shot ... he is completely lost defensively. This is where outside help is needed.
LW on the 4th line is a toss up: Kostitsyn has the most experience; Pacioretty has been solid and deserves a shot; Stewart provides toughness. Laraque will almost certainly not play -- he is far too plodding for the playoffs.
Kostopolous (favorite nickname: Nonstopolous) has been a fixture on Lapierre's right side for virtually the entire season, even on the PK (which is odd, given that both are right handed). But if Gainey wanted three scoring lines, Kostopolous has to go down one line.
So who might the new RW be? Given that Lapierre is the only right handed shot on the top three lines, one would think another right hander would be ideal. Bill Guerin fits the bill, has size and experience, and is being shopped by the Islanders. But the last time he was a playoff rental, it didn't go so well: -3 and a measly 2 assists in 9 games for the Sharks.
The more interesting rumor is Milan Hejduk. He's a proven scorer with a right handed shot. He's far removed from his 50 goal year, but his 50 pts would tie for the team lead right now, and his 23 goals would be tops. However, he's not exactly the type to drive to the net and get the typical playoff-type garbage goal. And he's still under contract for next year, at $4M/yr. With all the other UFA's Gainey has to sign, this trade would saddle the club even further.
Gainey might decide to stand pat, and not sacrifice future cap room or prospects for a single shot at the Cup. But how fun could that be?
Unfortunately, injuries to key players and spotty goaltending have cast doubt on some of those lofty goals. Both Tanguay and Lang have been on IR for extended periods of time, as well as Koivu, Latendresse and Komisarek. Carey Price also was injured, only to come back as a shell of his former self. The Kostitsyn brothers and Kovalev sideshows, and constant trade rumors didn't do much for team psychology either.
But Gainey hasn't given up. Kovalev was given a two game sabbatical, and then came back with 7 pts in 3 games. Sergei Kostitsyn was shipped off to Hamilton. Mathieu Schneider rejoined the Habs for a couple of draft picks. Glen Metropolit was picked up off waivers. The Habs seem to have responded with aggressive defense, a vastly improved PP and most of all, Jaroslaa Halak's otherworldly goaltending.
Gainey's most recent move was somewhat surprising (or at least telling), as Metropolit still has another year on his contract. His pickup also solidifies Lapierre's role as the #3 center. One then wonders what will happen to Lang, a UFA in the off season, and a vital cog in the Habs offense this year. Like Lang, Metropolit also gives the Habs another right handed centerman, and is decent in the faceoff circle: he was the top faceoff man for the Flyers this year.
His pickup had repercussions: Steve Begin became expendable, and allowed Kyle Chipchura to be sent back to Hamilton -- no doubt for more seasoning. Chipchura's defensive play still needs work (-6 in 13 games), as well as taking draws (a woeful 43.9%). Metropolit buys Chipchura another year, and makes $300k less than Begin. Not much especially this late in the season, but still more breathing room under the cap.
The next Hab rumored to leave is Mathieu Dandenault. Also a UFA at the end of the year, he would seem to have more trade value as a two way player. Perhaps only Bob Gainey could get away with decreasing the "French content" of the beloved Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.
Still, if Dandenault were to leave, it would be either straight up for draft picks or packaged with picks and/or prospects for an impact player. Such an impact player would almost certainly be a top six forward, someone basically to replace the lost offense when Lang went down.
If Gainey were to do that, he would be essentially signaling a return to the three scoring line, one checking/energy line format. Since Lang's injury, Habs have been using old school lines: two scoring lines, one two-way/checking line, and an agitator/energy line, (more or less) something like this:
Higgins-Koivu-D'Agostini
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Pacioretty-Lapierre-Kostopoulos
Stewart-Metropolit-Laraque
If Gainey were to pick up a top six forward, Carbo could dramatically reshape his forward lines for the playoffs. Assuming both Tanguay and Latendresse come back before the playoffs, the new lines might look something like this:
Tanguay-Koivu-new RW?
A.Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Latendresse
S.Kostitsyn/Pacioretty/Stewart-Metropolit-Kostopoulos
D'Agostini will almost certainly be sent down once Tanguay and Latendresse are back. While he goes to the net, has lightning speed and has that rare right handed shot ... he is completely lost defensively. This is where outside help is needed.
LW on the 4th line is a toss up: Kostitsyn has the most experience; Pacioretty has been solid and deserves a shot; Stewart provides toughness. Laraque will almost certainly not play -- he is far too plodding for the playoffs.
Kostopolous (favorite nickname: Nonstopolous) has been a fixture on Lapierre's right side for virtually the entire season, even on the PK (which is odd, given that both are right handed). But if Gainey wanted three scoring lines, Kostopolous has to go down one line.
So who might the new RW be? Given that Lapierre is the only right handed shot on the top three lines, one would think another right hander would be ideal. Bill Guerin fits the bill, has size and experience, and is being shopped by the Islanders. But the last time he was a playoff rental, it didn't go so well: -3 and a measly 2 assists in 9 games for the Sharks.
The more interesting rumor is Milan Hejduk. He's a proven scorer with a right handed shot. He's far removed from his 50 goal year, but his 50 pts would tie for the team lead right now, and his 23 goals would be tops. However, he's not exactly the type to drive to the net and get the typical playoff-type garbage goal. And he's still under contract for next year, at $4M/yr. With all the other UFA's Gainey has to sign, this trade would saddle the club even further.
Gainey might decide to stand pat, and not sacrifice future cap room or prospects for a single shot at the Cup. But how fun could that be?
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