Monday, May 4, 2009

Interlude

A small break from the critical work at Habs GM, to bring you an update on the impact of this year's playoffs. The most entertaining series of the year is sure to be the Penguins and Capitals: Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green and rookie sensation Varlamov vs. Crosby, Malkin, Guerin, Gonchar and Fleury. Game 2 was Crosby's hat trick vs Ovechkin's -- great stuff. Too bad this matchup of the two most talented teams had to come before the conference finals.

But the most important series is between the last two Cup winners: Detroit and Anaheim. This series is a study in opposites. Detroit is smaller, more skilled and loaded with (not-so-soft) Europeans. Anaheim is huge, less skilled (but still fast) and loaded with North Americans who love the physical game. They're like linebackers on skates.

Typically, GM's will look to past Cup winners and try to copy their rosters. The Red Wings-Penguins final last year was great for hockey, as it had two of the most skilled teams in the final. A similarly good final this year would involve either the Red Wings or Blackhawks from the West and Penguins or Capitals from the East.

Not so good for hockey would be an Anaheim-Boston final. Both play with speed and some skill. But they emphasize size over skill -- especially Anaheim.

The good news is that Anaheim has had to rely largely on their game breaker of a goaltender. While their top line of Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan causes all sorts of havoc, and is huge to boot, Hiller is often the difference maker. How far Hiller can take them?

Hopefully not past the Wings.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Roster moves: Mike Komisarek

The last post dealt with the goaltending situation. Continuing on out from the net, the blueline makeover is next. This one is particularly challenging, and perhaps where Gainey has the most work to do.

Only three regulars -- Markov, Gorges and Hamrlik -- are under contract next year. This is a fairly solid core to build around: able to play good defense, gets the puck out of the defensive zone quickly and sets up forwards for scoring opportunities. Markov is clearly the best of the three, and probably the best defenseman to play for the Habs in a number of years.

The Habs rash of injuries last year proved that blueline depth is critical. Hockey is a defensive sport, and depth at goaltending and defense are critical. But the Habs can't rely on four or five of their prospects to fill the void either, as impressive as they are (O'Byrne, Weber, Carle, and Subban, to name a few). While it's nice to get some of the youngsters some much needed NHL ice time, at most only one or two can expect regular play with the big club-- and maybe only as part of the third pairing, lining up against the opposition's third and fourth lines.

Defense is simply much more difficult to play than offense. It is often more a matter of experience and good habits, and less instinct and skill. Most successful defensemen are not born, but rely on training and practice, doing the same thing over and over again until the memory is burned into every muscle. Take Nick Lidstrom. He might be the best in the business -- at 39 years old! Or his teammate, Chris Chelios: 47 years old, and taking regular shifts during these playoffs. 18 year old forwards are common but 18 year old defensemen are not.

One defenseman who did make the jump earlier than most was Mike Komisarek. He has done reasonably well as a young defenseman, but is still learning the game. He will often go for the big check, get tangled up and then ends up out of position. He also often fails to trust or communicate with his defensive partner, turning two-on-twos into two-on-ones and trying to play the pass between the opposing forwards.

The Habs know this, and won't offer him huge money. With the amount of players they need to re-sign, they can't afford to anyway. A long term contract would be justifiable, maybe as long as 10 years, but average somewhere between $4M/year and $5M/year. Markov should be the highest paid defenseman on the team, and his deal averages $5.75M/year (and only 4 years?!).

But Komisarek would be a fool to try to sign before he becomes goes UFA on July 1. If he waits, he will almost certainly get a huge contract from one of the struggling U.S. teams that needs to fill seats -- and Big K's brand of hockey fills seats. The bet here is that the Islanders will throw a front loaded, 15-year/$90M contract at him. He's a Long Island boy after all, and what better way for the Islanders to resurrect their moribund franchise than by signing one of their own. He would make an excellent partner for the left handed, offensively minded, smallish and not-very-physical Mark Streit.

Most of all the Islanders need to sell tickets. Look at what overpaying for Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell did for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. They ended up first in the league in attendance, averaging 22,247 per home game. The previous year they were 19th, averaging only 16,814. Splashy, big ticket free agent signings are expensive, but effective marketing. There might not be a better, quicker way of proving to the fans that you are committed to winning.

Even if Komisarek should opt for free agency, all is not lost for the Habs. Markov, Hamrlik and Gorges can fill three of the top four slots. Indeed, Gorges did an admirable job filling in while Big K was injured this year. Another four or five blueliners would be needed. One or two of those spots could be filled by one of the Bulldog regulars from last year. That leaves the need to sign three UFA's.

Next post: the rest of the Habs 2009-10 defensive corps.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Roster moves: goaltending

Enough with the theory. On to the nuts and bolts of the 2009-10 edition of the Montreal Canadiens. Every team's most valuable player should be their goaltender. Hockey is in essence a defensive sport. And the goalie is the last line of defense. So it only holds that any team must be built from the pipes on out.

The Habs started out last season with what seemed like a pretty good goalie tandem. Toward the beginning of the year, Price and Halak may have been the best in the league. That soon faltered -- badly -- after the All Star break.

Price has clearly the more upside of the two, with a combination of size, skill, and inflappable demeanor (uh, usually). Some have argued that Price needs a better coach. That could be true, given some of his struggles last year. He often was too deep in his net, failing to challenge shooters. And he went down far too quickly, leading opponents to believe they could successfullly shoot high on him.

But some of this may be due to a lack of confidence, in addition to inadequate coaching. Price could then use a mentor, someone who has seen success between the pipes in the NHL, and is now ready to assume the elder counsel role -- but also still spry enough to spell the youngster on occasion.

That man may be Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig was Price's early mentor, when Price was with the Tri City Americans in the Western Hockey League -- part owned by Kolzig. So they have a history, and Price openly talked about Kolzig's mentorship in those days. Those very successful days.

Kolzig made $1.5M last year. He would have to take a significant cut to join the Habs. Or sign a front loaded, multi-year deal for a smaller cap hit (a loophole that the Habs should exploit before it is closed).

The only problem is that Kolzig is 39. And he didn't play all that well last year. After all, a #2 will have to do more than just teach.

Better options for actual goaltending might be Brian Boucher or Ty Conklin. Both are in their mid-30's and both posted very good years for very little money. For those same reasons, other teams will be after them too, so they won't be that cheap this year. But again, the multi-year deal can avoid the cap problem. The bigger issue is: can they mentor a young, confidence-challenged goaltender?

And then what of Jaroslav Halak? Two options: the Yann Danis route (eternity in the minors as injury insurance) or be traded. Halak would certainly pick up some trade interest, with his generally solid play and bargain rate price. And it would avoid the Yann Danis scenario of losing a quality netminder without compensation.

But if Halak goes, and both Price and his backup go down, who then? Cedrick Desjardins had a decent season for the Bulldogs, but was usually outplayed by NHL castoff Marc Denis. Not exactly the stuff of stellar resume. But still, he's only 20. He might be ready next year for a game or two.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Definition of Insanity

There is an increasingly overused phrase that defines insanity as doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result. So perhaps some Habs fans and NHL pundits in general would deem it insanity for the Habs to reconstruct more or less the same roster as last year -- despite the flameout over the last half-season. But that's exactly what is proposed here, insane or not.

While many fans want to dump some of the current players, the simple fact is that there isn't a whole lot of UFA talent left out there to replace them. The Wings re-signed one of the most prized would-be UFA's (Franzen) and are apparently close to signing Hossa too. Koivu comes under constant criticism for not being a true #1 center. Take a look at the list of UFA centers next year. Koivu is near the top of that list.

Second, for whatever reason, not many players want to sign in Montreal, unless they already play for Montreal. The three most significant additions to the Habs last year -- Lang, Tanguay and Schneider -- all came via trade. In recent years, Hamrlik is the lone exception to this rule, but he already had narrowed his choices to the 6 Canadian teams. Other big free agent prizes like Hossa, Sundin and Shanahan were more the norm, and said "non, merci" to the, uh, opportunity to play in Montreal.

So the Habs either have to carry out a trade or two, or sign their current crop of free agents. For the first option, I would hope that the Lecavalier saga is over, now that Gainey has publicly berated Lightning GM Brian Lawton for allegedly using the Habs as leverage to get better deals for Lecavalier. Even if it weren't, how would Gainey get Vinny and still fit under the cap? He'd have to trade Andrei Kostitsyn and maybe his brother and a few other prospects like O'Byrne and Weber and not sign Koivu and Lang. Is Vinny really worth that much? Even without the lost players, is any player worth 20% of the cap? Not unless you're Roberto Luongo.

But signing most of the current roster is not just a matter of it being one of the few paths Gainey can take. It also makes good hockey sense.

This roster showed glimpses of brilliance, esp in the first half when the Habs posted their best record ever through 41 games. They were healthy, had confidence, and listened to the coaching staff. Granted, much of that fell away in the second half, saw a brief resurgence when Gainey took over, and waylaid by injuries (again) at the end.

But the core is still there: a top line to rival any other line in the league; secondary scoring; a gritty two way line; blue line depth; speed and skill throughout the roster.

The only thing missing is size, but size is overrated, at least in the new NHL. Playoff games were called more consistently this year, negating the size advantage that some teams may have. Last year it wasn't that way, and so Big Georges Laraque was obtained. Yet despite being the smaller team, the Habs outhit the Bruins. They recorded 115 hits in the 4 games, 40 more than the Bruins. Laraque only had 1o of them, so even if he hadn't played, the Bruins would have been significantly outhit.

Where size does matter, at least in part, is in protecting the puck. Can the player absorb a hit, or is he knocked off the puck easily? Can he take a hit to make a play? Some fans may cry for the return of Mike Ribeiro, but he is the epitome of a skill player easily relieved of the puck.

And even then, not every player who is strong on the puck is also big physically. Tiny Eric Perrin of Atlanta only had 21 giveaways in 78 games. And some of the big boys might be strong on the puck, can't do much with it anyway (see BGL). Still, if the choice were between a player with speed, skill and size vs the player with just speed and skill, the answer is easy. But those kinds of players aren't exactly a dime a dozen either.

The big test of this theory will be how the teams with speed and skill do in these playoffs. Those would be the Red Wings, Blackhawks, Penguins, Capitals and Sharks. Only the Sharks didn't advance, and that was mostly due to unbelievable goaltending on the part of Jonas Hiller. (The Caps almost faced the same fate until Lundquist couldn't carry the Rangers any more.)

To come: a breakdown of next year's roster.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Offseason Overview

Bob Gainey really has his work cut out for him. A season just imploded before him, up close and personal. And now he has maybe half a team under contract for next year, with a salary cap that may shrink anywhere from 1 to 6 million dollars from the previous season. Who exactly will be the Montreal Canadiens next year? And how can they be competitive with such an impending drastic makeover?

Or so goes the prevailing pessimistic view. Chances are that it won't be nearly that bad. Sure the Habs have 15 free agents, 10 of the unrestricted variety. So the GM could go wild and try to sign a whole new lineup.

But as Elliot Friedman points out, it's just not necessary. And good thing too, because the way Habs fans and the media treat their players, who'd want to come here? Certainly not Brendan Shanahan, Mats Sundin or Marian Hossa. At least some of the current UFA's are at least making noises that they want to stay, as crazy as that seems. Which begs the question: if it's so bad in Montreal, why would they want to stay? But let's just take them at their word, and address the larger question of what the Habs can do to prevent the late season collapse and early playoff exit.

The easy answer is less injuries. They were simply snakebit this year, and played much of the 4 playoff games without their top guns, including Markov, Lang, Tanguay and Schneider.

But that doesn't explain the post-All Star break swoon. While injuries played some part, most of the poor showing was due to shoddy defense and goaltending. The players themselves -- at least the healthy ones -- had enough talent to do better than they did. Somehow that talent just wasn't showcased on ice.

Some part of that has to be coaching. After Carbo was fired and Gainey took over, some players perked up noticeably, esp Higgins and Kovalev. Gainey has to find someone who can continue that, and get the rest of the team playing as well. The Habs simply seemed to have stopped listening to Carbo, for whatever reason.

Friedman's article points out Price's recent deficiencies. He was spot on describing how Price is at his best when he seemingly doesn't move. He just plays positional goaltending and uses his big body to make the save. No theatrics necessary. Gainey has to hire someone who can better mentor and bring Price along, and maybe restore some of his confidence. Rollie Melanson may not be that guy.

But maybe the bigger portion of the offseason work is to sign a new team. As unpopular as this may seem, every current Habs RFA and almost every UFA should be brought back. With a lower cap a near certainty, this will take some fancy accounting to make it all pencil out. But as the Red Wings showed, the cap can be gotten around, if teams with the money are willing to bet long term on some of their star players. Who wouldn't want to lock up Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen for as long as possible? The same goes for Mike Komisarek and Alex Tanguay, and even older veterans like Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev.

So it might be possible to squeeze all those free agents under an even lower cap. But that begs the question: why sign the same roster that was more or less responsible for the implosion this season?

That's a big question, best taken up by another post.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Round 1, Game 4: Bruins 4, Canadiens 1

Pretty much the same as before. Habs outgunned and outmanned. They tried to slug their way through it, but couldn't dislodge Boston. Simply too much skill on their side, and half our skill guys are in the infirmary.

But somehow that fact seems to escape the so called fans at the Bell Centre. First they boo the American anthem (in game 3 and tonight as well). Now they jeer Carey Price? He didn't have a good game 2, but on every night, on almost every goal, his defense abandoned him. Let's break it down, goal by pathetic goal:

1) Hamrlik forgets that Michael Ryder no longer plays for the Habs and lays out a perfect feed for him, leaving Price no time to react to such a bone headed play. Byron Bitz could have tossed that one in.

2) Higgins can't finish off his check on Krejci, who bursts past him, feeds it to Ryder on the right, who passes it right back. O'Byrne does a whirling dervish trying to keep track of the puck, and Price is left with no one guarding the back door.

3) Dandenault leisurely skates by the penalty box, failing to notice Kessel standing up and ready to bust out of the box just a few feet away. Kessel takes the feed from Bergeron, and goes in on what was maybe the 4th breakaway in the second period alone, and Kessel's second. Price got the others but doesn't get this one -- it was just a matter of time.

4) Ryder scores on a beautiful 3-on-2 passing play. Somehow the two Habs defenders fail to get a stick on the puck, and the back door is open yet again.

Price had a chance on only the third goal. And that's off the stick of Phil Kessel, for pete's sake. He of 36 regular season goals, leading the high octane Bruins. How is it that the supposedly knowledgeable hockey fans of Montreal fail to grasp that?

But perhaps I'm too harsh. There were some fans who tried to drown out the anthem booers tonight. And there were some fans who tried to drown out the booers at the end of the game, and show some appreciation for the way these Habs tried to battle through the injuries that decimated their squad.

But boy did there seem to be a lot of people jeering Price. I really hope those were two middle fingers he was holding up under his blocker and glove. Too bad he only had two.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Round 1, Game 3: Bruins 4, Canadiens 2

Even when the Habs get a set of refs that seem tailor made to their makeshift lineup, they still can't pull it out. A sizable chunk of their skilled players -- Lang, Tanguay, Markov, Schneider -- can't play, due to one injury or another. That opens up space for the Habs' version of the Hansen brothers -- O'Byrne, Laraque, Stewart. And the refs misplace their whistles.

It all seems to come together for most of the first period. The Habs outhit, outmuscle and outplay the Bruins. But still they somehow manage to lose. Even without Lucic, the Bruins can play this game. They seemingly can play any game: Don Cherry style guts and glory, or Flying Frenchmen speed and skill.

The only thing that might come of this series is the opportunity for some of the youngsters to get a good dose of what playoff hockey is all about. That and maybe Bell Centre fans finding some class.