All O, No D

Carbo's latest tinkerings with line combinations have at once taken advantage of the Habs' strengths, while laid bare their most glaring weakness. The lines go something like this:

Kostitsyn-Koivu-Latendresse
Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Kovalev
Higgins-Lapierre-Ryder
Streit-Kostopolous-Dandenault

There are so many oddities about these lines:

1. Michael Ryder is playing again, after a few games as a healthy scratch. Ryder's situation deserves a post unto itself, so more on that later.
   
2. The fourth line has no real center and two defensemen on the wings.
   
3. All lefties on the "first" two lines, and only two on the "last" two.
4. Three scoring lines, and one energy line.
   

As odd as these combinations are, they are a small bit of genius given the Habs' dearth of anyone resembling a defensive forward. Carbo split up the three catalysts for the Habs' offense: Higgins, Koivu and Kovalev. With each driving their respective lines, other coaches can't figure out against whom to send their better units. Carbo also sends all lines on the forecheck constantly, except in the third period when they fall back into a trap-like defensive shell with a four or five goal lead.

And that is exactly when this bold plan's soft underbelly is exposed. None of these guys are bona fide shut down forwards. The plan's success in the early going is based on keeping the puck in the offensive zone, and creating pressure with a constant forecheck. With the game safely in hand after two periods, Carbo figures he can just play defense, and ride out the last 20 minutes. But while these lines excel at being the aggressor, they aren't so good at playing D. The result, over the three games these lines have been in effect? Outscoring the opposition 10-2 in the first two periods vs being outscored 5-3 in the last (including OT).

So why not just play the third period just like the first two? Carbo would appear to be trying to run up the score, a big no-no esp given the Habs' lack of an enforcer. So Carbo has to hope that the big early game leads will continue, and that his team (and esp his goalies) can hold on in the third.

Granted, the last game against the Rangers is a little atypical, and maybe one could argue that shouldn't be counted against this plan. After all, the Habs could only dress 19 players -- Corey Locke had an equipment bag snafu at Toronto's Pearson airport. The baggage guys there must be Leafs fans. But his absence didn't hurt as much as the guy he was supposed to replace: Saku Koivu, out with the flu. (Deja vu. Haven't the Habs' medical staff heard of flu shots?) .

Koivu is the Habs' best faceoff guy, for three years running now. The Rangers ruthlessly exposed the Habs' weakness in the faceoff circle, winning 68% of the draws. The most costly, of course, was Drury's win late in the third to tie the game. Lapierre's return has helped, but with Plekanec consistently losing more than he wins, the Habs desperately need someone to center that fourth line with a better faceoff percentage, esp take some defensive zone draws.

In the first two games (against the Lightning and Panthers) Carbo turned to Kostopolous, a winger who has lost about two draws for every win over the last three seasons. That's a pretty damning lack of confidence in Chipchura, who was a healthy scratch in both games.

But against the Rangers, without Koivu, Carbo had no choice but to play Chipchura. He was woefully not up to the job. His line was on the ice the for the first two goals, all ending up at -2. Of course it didn't help that Tom Renney recognized the mismatch and sent Straka-Gomez-Jagr out each time. On the first goal, Renney even caught Carbo with Chipchura's line as well as the third defensive unit, Bouillon and Gorges. Might as well have given them the goal and not bother with the formalities.

But there's not a whole lot Carbo can do about his fourth line, even when his guys are healthy. Bob needs to get him some help, esp to center that fourth line. And that is the subject of my next post.

Young blood

So Bob has finally listened to the masses and brought back Max. Not sure what took him so long, although some have suggested that Lapierre was only sent down to learn how to play right wing.

In any case, Max is back. Hardly the cure to all that ails the Habs these days, but certainly a step in the right direction. Grabovski was also sent down to make room, so maybe Bob does realize that the Habs need help on D, not O.

But in a surprise move, Bob also brought up Ryan O'Byrne. Many were upset that Bob signed Patrice Brisebois instead of keeping O'Byrne on the roster. Although I was a bit surpised (shocked?) myself, I thought it made a certain amount of sense. Both Brisebois and O'Byrne could play the right side, but Brisebois is the sort of puck-moving dman the Habs need, esp on the PP. Streit would be the #1 PP QB, but a #2 is always good.

If Brisebois could keep his defensive gaffes to a minimum, then it'd be a pretty good pickup, for a very minimal cap hit. And he certainly played that way early on. But then, as the team started it's recent slide, Brisebois reverted to his prior self. Not continuously, on every shift. But, man, were there some bad plays on his part.

But I assume that O'Byrne's promotion was not just about Brisebois' failures. Blueliners take time to mature, and another stint in the AHL could only help, one would think. As one of the leading dmen on the Bulldogs, O'Byrne has showed that he was ready. And with Hamrlik's expertise at bringing along youngsters, O'Byrne could be a perfect fit just when the Habs needed him.

Again, neither Lapierre nor O'Byrne will be the savior Habs fans have been looking for. But it certainly is a step in the right direction. The next step? For Carbo to realize that defense wins games, and that he needs to put together two decent checking lines. Sure, Bob has hamstrung him by not signing decent replacements for Bonk and Johnson (much less re-signing Bonk and Johnson themselves). But Carbo's got to play the cards he's been dealt, and stop blaming Ryder for all the team's ailments.

I'm thinking maybe two checking lines, looking something like this:
Chipchura-Smolinski-Kostopolous
Begin-Lapierre-Dandenault

Offense ain't the problem. It's D. Good defense -- including a good transition game -- is going to win games.

Bring back Max, part III

There's been some interesting talk around the Habs recently, most curiously stated by Guy Lafleur, my childhood idol. He said that the Habs roll out four fourth lines. Now, that's a wee bit exaggerated. I don't think Koivu, Kovalev, Plekanec or Higgins belong on a fourth or even third line. But on a team with the talent of, say, the Senators, they'd be doing a lot of second line work.

There was also some discussion over at the Theory of Ice along the same lines. For those of you not familiar, the Theory is the pre-eminent Habs blog out there today. Interestingly enough, Jeff (the author of the equally good, but now retired Sisu Hockey), commented at length about what he saw as some warning signs.

To sum up, he pointed out that Smolinski's line was Carbo's first choice for lining up against the opposition's top line. Koivu's line was second. So this explains to a large degree why Plekanec's line has been feasting, while Koivu's not so much.

Gainey and Carbo don't have many options. Like Jeff said (and Lafleur exaggerated), we don't have many legitimate checking line forwards. Begin and Kostopolous tend to be agitator types. Chipchura, Latendresse and Grabovski are all young, and need to learn the nuances of defense and other player's tendencies. Smolinski is a crafty, but not getting any younger veteran. Dandenault is trying to re-learn his forward position.

On talented teams, the above seven would be fourth liners. It's hard to admit it, but it's true. But this is the hand we've been dealt (although I still don't understand why we didn't keep Radek Bonk and Mike Johnson). So how to go forward?

I've complained about the Habs inability to keep the lead. On the most recent Theory posting, e posts some interesting stats about late game leads. And given Jeff's point about Koivu's line playing as a second checking line, I wonder if what we really need is a solid, second checking line option.

This would free up Koivu's line to play against third and fourth liners. Well, at home anyway. On the road, we wouldn't have the last change, so it wouldn't work as well. But it should still help I think, esp on line changing during the play.

We don't have a lot of options, given the player personnel listed above. But of those, the weakest links on defense are clearly Latendresse and Grabovski. So I say (again) bring back Max. He proved last year that he's got some defensive chops. And if he can't shut down an opposing forward, he can sure get under their skin (see every game vs Crosby) and provoke them to take a bad penalty or two. And since Murray has been gone, there's been a roster spot open.

I'd see those two checking lines going something like this:
Begin-Smolinksi-Dandenault
Chipchura-Lapierre-Kostopolous

Carbo might even be tempted to switch Smolinski and Lapierre, if only to keep some veteran/rookie balance. Plus, you'd get an all French Canadian line. Tabarnac!

Uh...

Somehow Habs GM seem to have missed what should have been big news: Ilya Bryzgalov placed on waivers by the Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks, and subsequently picked up by the goalie starved and division rival Phoenix Coyotes.

This was a real stunner to me. It's well known that the Ducks were stacked with talent between the pipes. I think the Ducks could have won the Cup with either Bryzgalov or Giguere last year. In fact, Bryzgalov played the early rounds until Giguere was ready to come back.

I can understand not wanting to keep him, maybe for salary cap reasons. But why not trade him? Placing a player of his caliber on waivers almost guarantees someone will pick him up, and you get nothing in return -- except the salary cap space.

And Brian Burke had to have known that Phoenix would be licking their chops (like a rabid coyote?) if they had the chance to grab Bryzgalov. After all, this is the same team that signed David Aebischer to a free-agent contract. I feel bad for Abby and how he imploded last year, but man, that's desperate.

And what has Bryzgalov done since landing in the Valley of the Sun? He's won every one of this three starts, after the Coyotes got shut out by the Sharks back-to-back. It's only three games, but he's got a 1.30 GAA and .952 save percentage -- including a shootout win over his former team last night. That's gotta hurt.

What would Habs GM have done? Try to swing a deal to an Eastern Conference team. The East teams most in need of goaltending help would be the Leafs, Thrashers or Lightning. Maybe Burke would have gotten only a draft pick or two out of the deal. But at least it would be something. And then he'd only have face his former goaltender once every other year, instead of potentially 8 times or more with the Coyotes.

And I thought Burke was a genius for putting together that Pronger trade. Maybe Stanley Cup hangovers affect GM's too.

Ryder about to bust loose?

There has been some talk on various Habs related sites about Michael Ryder. Some of the glass-half-empty crowd seem to ignore the Habs' hot start, almost 1/5 of the way through the season. Some question why Ryder should be on the first line, or even call for trading him altogether.

While he is prone to some outright silly plays, he is still the lone, legitimate sniper the Habs currently employ. When he forgets that, he tends to go into his prolonged slumps. But when he awakens, we see why he has led the Habs in goals scored the past two seasons.

The last game against Buffalo was illustrative of these two sides of Michael Ryder. On the downside, he seems to sometimes think he's the second coming of Alex Kovalev, trying to deke and fake out opponents while carrying the puck into the zone. Or he thinks he has Tomas Plekanec's speed, trying to blow past defenders on the right side. He is neither, and he should leave the puck carrying to Saku and the speed demon bit to Higgins.

But there were also a couple of instances in last night's game that made me think Ryder is starting to work again, trying to do the little things to get back on his game:

1. In the second period, he laid out Derek Roy with a mid-ice, shoulder check. At first, I thought that must have been Steve Begin. But no, it was #73.
   
2. On the first goal, he hustled back to the defensive zone to help cover for Andrei Markov -- and for Saku and Higgins, both of whom went to the bench. Markov, knowing he was covered defensively, was able to pick off the Buffalo entry pass. He fed it to Kostitsyn, who gave a nice feed to Plekanec for the game winner. All of this starts with Ryder hustling back on D.

So those are the little signs that Carbo must be pleased with. Enough to let Ryder stay on the top line, but probably not enough to quiet the vociferous few calling for a trade.

Keeping an Even Keel

I think the title of this post is some sort of sailing term, whereby a sailboat is kept from rocking to and fro by a steady hand upon the keel. Whatever that is.

A good analogy for all our good friends in Habland, no? Both for those who have been longtime passengers on the bandwagon, and those scrambling to get on.

To be sure, it certainly does look good:

• #1 power play in the land
• #5 in the Hab-hating TSN power ranking
• Points all around, sprinkled like fairy dust upon checking line forward and highly paid sniper alike.
  
• Plekanec and Kovalev making beautiful plays, instead of one mystifying the other like last year.
• Kovalev still on pace for a 40 goal season, 1/8 of the way through the campaign.
  
• Andrei Markov: quite simply, the bargain of the year. Second in scoring, multiple game winning goals, and ice time leader. All for millions less than Zdeno Chara.
  
• Youngsters Grabovski and especially Chipchura looking right at home in the NHL.
  
• Even Kostopolous turning his play around, without benefit of a benching.
• Mathieu Dandenault, opportunistic forechecker extraordinaire? May the surprises never cease, at least of the pleasant variety.
  

But let's not get too giddy. The Habs looked pretty good early last season too. Then came Christmas, and the Habs seemed to take an extended holiday season. All the way through the off-season. Off course, a major injury to Huet and a a flu bug that wouldn't go away didn't help either. Plus Kovalev's vertigo. Chalk last season up to Murphy's Law. Or was it Ironic? Alanis has me all messed up.

But I'll take one small, savory sip from the goblet of satisfaction: maybe those who have called for Carbo's head will give him a reprieve, hopefully for the year. Surely his mixing and matching has worked to a certain extent, even if I'd still like to see Kostitsyn instead of Latendresse night in and night out.

Still, while the offense has been a revelation (especially the distributed nature thereof), I take issue with the defense. Many a game has been either lost or nearly so when the Habs take the early lead and then try to nurse it. They simply don't have the defensive talent to do it, it seems. Some examples:

• Habs blow 3-0 lead over Pittsburgh, before Price puts the entire team on his back and wins in the shootout.
  
• Habs take 5-1 lead over Carolina, but then let them creep back to within two goals before sealing it with the empty netter.
• In Ottawa, they manage to scramble back to tie it at 3-3, but then give it away seconds later with 6 mins left in the game.
• Habs have a slight 1-0 lead over Florida, but are otherwise dominating. They allow a late game tying goal, and then lost in the shootout.
• Habs take 3-1 lead over Toronto, but end up losing in OT to the Leafs of all teams. Ugh.

Some of it I think is due to personnel. As much as I love Mark Streit, we really have four 3rd tier dmen: Streit, Bouillon, Gorges and Brisebois. Not much we can do about that in the short term. They're all doing well enough, but the average ice time is telling. Hamrlik, Komisarek and Markov average between 21-25 minutes. Whereas Brisebois, Streit and Bouillon average 17.5 to 18 minutes.

But we can improve the defense up front. In the Carolina game, Carbo juggled lines late and put Chipchura on the first line between Higgins and Ryder, dropping Koivu back to the fourth line.

But something a little more structural might be needed. To that end, I reiterate my call to bring back Max. He's a hard working, forechecking, get-under-your-skin little bastard, and would be perfect with any combination of Begin, Dandenault, Chipchura, Smolinski and Kostopolous.

Of course, this would boot Kostitsyn, Grabovksi and/or Latendresse from a regular slot. And while Grabovski has added some offensive punch, the rest haven't done a whole lot (although Kostitsyn hasn't gotten much of a chance lately). Plus, we seem to have enough offense to go around lately. Just need to tighten up on the defensive side.

Bring back Max

While it's much too early to begin the hand-wringing, there are obviously some concerns about the Habs early season play. As predicted, the Habs play decent defense, and have stellar goaltending. But the offense is somewhat lacking.

Carbo has been juggling the last three lines like crazy, trying to find three scoring lines and one checking line. But we have more checking line forwards than we do scoring forwards. Plus, there are some guys who don't deserve much ice time, especially Tom Kostopolous. He's now a team worst -4 (albeit tied with my boy Mark Streit). But he doesn't make up for it with offensive upside. He was mostly an unknown when Bob signed him, and I was a little puzzled. But I figured Bob was looking at the following:

• he's right handed, and Habs desperately need more
• he could replace Mike Johnson on the right side of the third line, for cheaper than Johnson was being paid
• if he doesn't work out there, stick Maxim Lapierre on the right side, and drop him to the fourth

Well Max didn't have a very good training camp, but is now tearing it up in Hamilton. Kostopolous, on the other hand, is not having a very good regular season, and is causing me to tear my hair out.

So Bob, how about the following:

1. Put Garth and his broken foot on IR
2. Let Kostopolous watch from the press box a few games
3. Bring back Max

Carbo was complaining about the lack of energy his team has brought so far, esp when they only show up for a period or two. That was never Max's problem. Max won't help their scoring issues, but he can play D. And the Habs have had a bad habit of not holding leads (or momentum, as in the Ottawa game).

It's too bad that Bob didn't sign either Bonk or Johnson. Bonk signed with Nashville for only $1.475M per and Johnson at $.75M with St. Louis. Kostopolous on the other hand, got $.9k and Bryan Smolinski (ostensibly Bonk's replacement) got $2M. If Bob had thrown the same money at Johnson and Bonk, with maybe a compensation-for-playing-in-Montreal signing bonus, we'd have a legitimate shutdown line and still be under the cap. Oh well.

But let's not dwell entirely on the negatives. What about the positives so far, including:

• Carey Price's unveiling as a legitimate NHL goalie. After two games he's not ready to unseat Huet as the #1, but it appears that Carbo is going with the tandem approach: play Huet 2-3 games, then Price. I think this works both in terms of keeping Huet fresh and healthy (see last year when not) and giving Price some valuable NHL game experience. Then, if Price is up to it, trade Huet.
• Patrice Brisebois, decent dman. Who woulda thunk it? He's made one or two unholy giveaways, like against the Panthers. Luckily, Cristobal bailed him out on that one. Still not bad. I fully expected such an occurrence on every other shift. He might actually be earning his role as #4.
• Mark Streit, PP setup man. I still think he deserves a shot at the #4, but maybe Carbo figures that Streit's defensive prowess is more helpful to Bouillon, who can make mistakes of his own -- sometimes going for the big hit and getting out of position. So is being #5 a testament to Streit's skill? Could be.
• Alex Kovalev on almost a point per game pace? Also on pace for 41 goals, exactly where he needs to be? I guess I shoudn't be so surprised, given a player of his skill. But we've all known more disappointment from him than anything else, so I'm warily watching how this unfolds.